Typhoon Haiyan,last year locally named Yolanda, which wreaked havoc in Eastern Visayas last year, remains to be the strongest typhoon, bearing maximum sustained winds of 235 kph. However, Typhoon Ruby now holds the title of being the longest-staying typhoon inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this year.

State Weather Forecaster Meno Mendoza says Ruby beats the 5-day record of Typhoon Henry back in July this year. Today is Ruby’s fifth day in PAR, and is now expected to exit our area of responsibility on Thursday morning instead of the earlier forecasted Tuesday.

The said typhoon further weakens as it continues to cross the archipelago, packing winds of 120 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 150 kph. It is now traversing the Sibuyan Sea at a speed of 10 kph moving in a west northwest direction.

After hitting Dolores, Eastern Samar late Saturday and Masbate yesterday morning, Ruby is expected to make landfall in northern Mindoro tonight, between 6 to 8 in the evening. Residents living in the said province are advised against moderate to heavy rainfall, strong winds and possible storm surge generated by the typhoon.

Public Storm Warning Signals as of this morning:

Areas under Signals Number two and three will experience stormy weather. Occurrence of a storm surge 1 to 2 meters high is possible in the coastal areas.

The remaining areas of Luzon and Visayas not included in the warning signals can expect rainy weather. Mindanao will experience improved weather conditions although thunderstorm formation is still possible in the following hours.

Metro Manila, on the other hand, can expect to feel the effects of the typhoon once it makes landfall in Northern Mindoro tonight. Residents can expect moderate to occasional heavy rains as it is the closest distance the typhoon will be from the metro.

Meanwhile, Malacanang announces the suspension of work in government agencies in the National Capital Region and in Southern Luzon today. Offices whose work involves the delivery of health services and disaster response are exempted.

Typhoon Ruby weakens after making landfall at Dolores, Eastern Samar at 9:15 PM Saturday. It is expected to bring strong winds and heavy to torrential rainfall with a possible 3-meter storm surge over the vicinity of Masbate this morning.

PAGASA weather forecaster Glaiza Escullar says in an interview this morning at Panahon TV, the typhoon is expected to be in Romblon tonight, moving towards Mindoro province by tomorrow.

Currently northwest of Catbalogan City in the province of Samar, Ruby packs winds of 160 kph with gustiness of up to 195 kph. The typhoon continues to move west northwest at 15 kph.

The typhoon weakens as it gets less moisture to sustain its strength inland,Escullar explains.

If it maintains current speed and direction, Ruby is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Wednesday morning.

In PAGASA’s latest weather bulletin, Public Storm Warning Signals are raised over the following areas:

Residents living along coastlines are advised on possible storm surges, which may reach up to 2 to 3 meters in areas under storm warning signals #2 and #3.

Typhoon Ruby and the northeast monsoon will also bring rough to very rough sea conditions over the seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and the northern seaboards of Mindanao.

Sea travel is dangerous due to big waves that may reach up to 5 meters, and strong to gale force winds generated by the mentioned weather systems.

In the following hours, stormy weather will be experienced over the provinces under storm signals 2 and 3, particularly in Visayas, Bicol Region, Calabarzon and the provinces of Romblon, Mindoro and Marinduque.

Ruby, with international name Hagupit, has made its 1st landfall over Dolores, Eastern Samar at 9:15PM, Saturday. At 11:00PM, the eye of the typhoon was estimated at 125 kilometers east southeast of Catarman, Northern Samar. Packing winds of 175 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 210 kilometers per hour, it changed direction now moving west northwest at 15 kilometers per hour.

Public Storm Warning Signals are still up over some areas in Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

Potential Impacts of Winds

Signal #3
• Residents in low lying and mountainous areas are alerted against flashfloods and landslides. Likewise, those living along the coast are warned on the occurrence of big waves associated with Storm Surge which may reach up to 4 meters.
• Heavy damage to agricultural plantation, medium and large trees maybe uprooted
• Considerable damage to structure of light to medium construction, while, majority of nipa and cogon houses unroofed or destroyed
• Severe damage to Billboards & signages
• Evacuation to a safer shelters is highly recommended
• Electrical power distribution and communication services maybe severely disrupted

Signal #2
• Travel by all types of sea vessels and aircrafts are risky
Residents in low lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
• Rice and corn maybe adversely affected
• Few large trees uprooted
• Large number of nipa and cogon houses partially or totally unroofed and old galvanized iron roofs may roll off.
• Billboards/Signage may roll off

Signal #1
• These areas will have occasional rains with occasional gusty winds.
• Twigs and branches of trees maybe broken
• Some banana plants may tilt or land flat on the ground
• Rice in flowering stage may suffer significant damage
• Some nipa and cogon houses maybe partially unroofed
• Sea travel of small sea crafts and fishing boats is risky

Expected Chronology of Landfall events

After the first landfall over Dolores, Eastern Samar, PAGASA says Ruby will have more landfall activities in the coming days. If it maintains its velocity, it will cross Masbate, Sibuyan, Romblon and Tablas Island . On Monday morning at around 5 to 7AM, it will have its last landfall over Oriental Mindoro before heading towards the West Philippine Sea.

PAGASA’s forecast = what really happened

Based on the 5AM Weather Forecast of PAGASA on Saturday, the Eastern and Central Visayas, Bicol Region and the Province of Romblon will experience stormy weather while the Western Visayas and the province of Quezon, Batangas, Marinduque, Mindoro, Dinagat, Surigao del Norte and Siargao Island will have rainy weather with gusty winds. Metro Manila and the rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms.

Amount of rain recorded in Visayas (based on the 12hr rainfall data from PAGASA, as of December 6, 2014:

Catbalogan, Western Samar – 66mm
Borongan, Eastern Samar – 62mm
Tacloban, Leyte – 60mm

Sunday Weather

Ruby is expected to stay within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) until Tuesday evening if it maintains speed and direction. Today, December 7, 2014, the Eastern and Central Visayas, Bicol Region and Romblon will have stormy weather as Ruby continues to traverse the archipelago. Western Visayas, the provinces of Quezon, Batangas, Marinduque, Mindoro, Dinagat and Surigao del Norte including Siargao Island will have experience rains with gusty winds. Metro Manila and the rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms.

Source: PAGASA-DOST

Metro Manila is being talked about as one of the areas to be hit by Typhoon Ruby. To disprove this speculation, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) revealed Typhoon Ruby’s forecast track cone of probability.

Based on this, Typhoon Ruby is expected to traverse the areas from Samar to Romblon. Though Metro Manila is not part of the forecast track, it is situated near the affected areas and within the 600-kilometer diameter of the typhoon, making it as one of the areas to experience heavy to intense rains.

PAGASA Weather Forecaster Loiz explained that the cone of probability refers to the accuracy of Typhoon Ruby’s movement. The shallower the cone, the more accurate the forecast; the wider the cone, the bigger the chance is for the typhoon to deviate from its original forecast track.

Typhoon Ruby is expected to make its landfall over Dolores, Eastern Samar tonight between 8-10 PM. Residents in said areas are advised against strong winds, heavy to intense rainfall and storm surges up to 4.5 meters in height.

PAGASA Weather Forecaster Chris Perez says that if Ruby continues to move westward at 10 kph, after crossing Samar Provinces it would traverse the landmass of Ticao Island, Masbate and Romblon within 48 hours.

The Ridge of High Pressure Area influenced the movement of Typhoon Ruby, allowing it to dump more rains over the Visayas areas and portions of Southern Luzon and Northern Mindanao.

As of 1 PM today, Ruby was located at 230 kilometers East of Catarman, Northern Samar with maximum sustained winds of 185 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 220 kph.

Public Storm Warning Signal

Public Storm Warning Signals (PSWS) are being raised as Typhoon Ruby moves in closer to the landmass.

Threat of Storm Surge

Perez explained that coastal areas under Signals no. 3 and 2 are more prone to the possibility of storm surges.

However, the 4.5-meter wave height is not expected in all coastal areas. Perez says the height of storm surge depends on the coastal bathymetry, or as National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) refers to “ocean’s depths that is relative to sea level or the depths and shape of underwater terrains.”

High storm surges are most likely to happen in coastal areas with shallow bathymetry.

Full moon and Storm Surge= STORM TIDE

Tonight, the moon will be on its Full Moon phase when the Moon, Earth and Sun are in near alignment. During this phase, the Moon is at the opposite side of the Earth, its entire illuminated part facing us.

The Full moon has a strong gravitational pull that can affect tidal variations. Because of the Full Moon, Perez says there is a possible occurrence of “storm tide,” which can generate higher waves than storm surges. Storm tide happens with the combined effect of the Full Moon and a storm surge.

Typhoon Ruby has maintained its strength while nearing the landmass of Eastern Samar. At 10 AM today, Ruby was located at 435 kilometers east of Borongan, Eastern Samar, packing winds of 215 kph near its center and gustiness of about 250 kph.

Within 24 hours, Ruby is expected to be at 120 kilometers east-northeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar. PAGASA weather forecaster Chris Perez said Ruby is forecast to make landfall between the Northern and Eastern Samar tomorrow evening.

Categorized as a Super Typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), storm surges of up to 5 meters over the eastern portion of Samar, Bicol and Surigao  are expected.

Heavy to intense rainfall (7.2 to 20mm) is also expected within the 700-kilometer diameter of Ruby. Though Metro Manila will not be hit directly by the eye of the typhoon, its cloud bands will bring heavy to intense rains with gusty winds. The weather bureau added that there is a possibility of raising a Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) once it affects Metro Manila.

Chris said from the press briefing held at PAGASA Weather and Flood Forecasting Center, Ruby may maintain its 250 kilometer radius while crossing the landmass of the Philippines. This means, Ruby will dumped rains over areas within the said radius.

Yolanda Vs. Ruby

Chris explained, in comparison to Super Typhoon Yolanda with 30 plus kph, Ruby is moving in a slower pace with 13 kph. With this scenario, rains will be more concentrated over a certain area that may results to flooding.

Weather Today

Today, aside from Ruby, the northeast monsoon will also bring light rains in Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and the Ilocos Region.

Meanwhile stormy weather is expected in the next 24 hours over Eastern Visayas, the CARAGA Region, Sorsogon, Masbate, and Northern Cebu, including Cebu City and the islands of Bantayan, Camotes and Ticao.

The rest of Visayas and the Bicol Region, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin and Romblon will experience rains with gusty winds. Metro Manila and the rest of the country will experience light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms for the next hours.

Public Storm Warning Signal

Storm warning signals are now being raised by PAGASAto warn people living in areas likely to be affected by Ruby.

Signal no. 2: Winds of 61-100 kph are expected in at least 24 hours. Few large trees may be uprooted and a large number of nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed.

Signal no. 1: Winds of 30-60 kph are expected in at least 36 hours. Banana plants may tilt or land flat on the ground, rice in flowering stage may suffer significant damage and sea travel of small seacraft and fishing boats is risky.

As of 3:00 AM today, the typhoon with international name “Hagupit”, has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and was given the local name “Ruby”. At 7:00 AM, the eye of Typhoon Ruby was estimated at 930 kilometers east of Surigao City.

It has maximum sustained winds of 175 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 210 kilometers per hour. Moving west northwest at 25 kilometers per hour, it continues to move closer to the Philippine landmass.

There are no public storm warning signals yet but as the typhoon nears the country, the Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, CARAGA and Davao Region will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers or thunderstorms. Aside from Ruby, the northeast monsoon or amihan prevails over Northern Luzon. This weather system is expected to bring light rains over Cagayan Valley, Aurora and Quezon.

Meanwhile, the Cordillera and Ilocos Regions will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains. Metro Manila and the rest of the country will experience a chance of isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

The seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central and Southern Luzon, Visayas and of Mindanao will have rough to very rough sea conditions. Expected wind force will range from 52 to 63 kilometers per hour with a wave height of 3.4 to 4.5 meters.

Higher chance of landfall
According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier, two scenarios are still being monitored:
1) 75% possibility of Ruby crossing the landmass
2) 25% possibility of Ruby re-curving away from the country.

As a precautionary measure, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) and the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issued a list of areas that are critical due to the threat of Typhoon Ruby.

Class suspension

Listed below are different schools in Visayas that have already announced class suspension as preparation for the approaching typhoon.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) and PAGASA released a list of areas deemed critical as Typhoon Hagupit threatens the Philippines.

As the typhoon approaches, 44 provinces has been put under Alert Level C. These areas may experience 10 to 20 millimeters per hour of rainfall, which translates to heavy to intense rains, bringing heavy damage to agriculture, disruption of electrical power, and threat to travel.

Meanwhile, 6 provinces are expected to experience moderate to heavy rainfall at 5 to 10 millimeters per hour categorized under Alert Level B. Moderate damage to agriculture and risky travel are possible due to wind strength of 30 to 60 kilometers per hour, which is enough to uproot a few large trees and dislodge iron roofing.

Meanwhile, Metro Manila is put under Alert Level A, along with five more provinces. 5 to 10 millimeters per hour or moderate to heavy rainfall is expected with winds reaching up to 30 to 45 kilometers per hour.

Check the complete list below:

At 10:00 AM today, the center of the typhoon Hagupit was estimated at 1,543 kilometers east of Davao City. Packing winds of 140 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 170 kilometers per hour, it maintains its velocity moving west-northwest at 30 kilometers per hour.

If it maintains its speed and direction, it is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow, Thursday, and will be given the local name “Ruby”. Upon entering the PAR, the typhoon will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains over Southern Luzon and Visayas.

In a press briefing held earlier today at the PAGASA Weather and Flood Forecasting Center, two scenarios are still expected to happen. However, most meteorological models show a higher chance of landfall activity.

PAGASA Weather Forecaster Aldczar Aurelio said the first possible outcome is the typhoon making landfall over Eastern Visayas, bringing moderate to occasionally heavy rains. Aside from possible flash floods and landslides, storm surges of up to 3 to 4 meters could also occur.

On the other hand, the second scenario shows that if the high pressure area (HPA) weakens, it will give way for Hagupit to re-curve away from the country, leading to Japan. Everyone is advised to monitor updates regarding the approaching typhoon.

No direct effect yet

Hagupit is still far to directly affect the country. However according to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Glaiza Escullar, the outer cloud band of the typhoon is gradually reaching PAR, bringing cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms over Eastern Visayas.

Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon or amihan continues to prevail over Nothern and Central Luzon. Cagayan Valley will have cloudy skies with light rains while the regions of Cordillera, Ilocos and Central Luzon will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains. Metro Manila and the rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

Gale warning includes the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon. Fishing boats and other small seacraft are prohibited from venturing over the seaboards of Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Isabela and Aurora.

“Hagupit” compared to previous typhoons

Based on the climatological records of PAGASA, Typhoon Camilla (1949), Typhoon Aning (1966) and Typhoon Seniang (2006) have almost the same location where Hagupit would originate as it enters the PAR.