Despite the warm air of El Niño, colder days are expected in the coming weeks.
According to PAGASA, the country is currently in the transition period. But what does this mean?
Transition period is a phase where masses of cold and dry air and warm, humid air meet. This point is called the frontal system, which normally brings rain showers.
PAGASA Weather Forecaster Chris Perez states that the cold front is usually the precursor of the amihan or northeast monsoon. When the tail end of a cold front affects Luzon or Visayas areas, this means that the northeast monsoon is slowly affecting the Extreme Northern Luzon, and will eventually move southward.
The onset of northeast monsoon will happen somewhere between the last week of October and the first week of November, and will peak in the month of either January or February.
Amihan is responsible for lower temperatures, characterized by cold and dry air coming from Mainland China. During amihan season, cirrus clouds dominate the sky, bringing good weather. Compared to the southwest monsoon season, fewer thunderstorms are likely to happen during this season.
Last year, the onset of amihan was declared on October 16, 2014.
The tropical depression outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) was last located at 2,535 kms, east of Luzon with maximum winds of 45 kph near the center. If the weather disturbance continues to move west-northwest at 25 kph, it is expected to enter PAR tomorrow evening or on Thursday morning.
PAGASA Weather Forecaster Jori Loiz said that it will be named “Lando” upon entering Philippine boundary.
Forecast Track
The weather bureau is now considering two possible scenarios. First, the cyclone could move upward and will spare the Philippine landmass from landfall activity. Second, if the high pressure area remains persistent, the cyclone will make landfall in the northern part of Luzon.
Whatever the outcome, the tropical depression will definitely bring rain showers in most parts of Northern Luzon.
Weather today
Today, the tail end of a cold front is affecting the extreme Northern Luzon. This will bring light to moderate rain showers in the provinces of Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon and over the islands of Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan.
The rest of the country will have generally good weather apart from isolated rains and thunderstorms.
The Nansen Initiative, a high-level intergovernmental meeting which unites ministers and senior civil servants from more than 75 countries to discuss resolutions for today’s disaster displacement and prepare for new challenges in the coming years, holds its Global Consultation on October 12-13, 2015 in Geneva, Switzerland. The initiative has seven other members, including the Philippines, along with Australia, Bangladesh, Costa Rica, Germany, Kenya and Mexico. There are 80 Consultative Committee Members composes of researchers, NGOs, and international and regional organizations.
Millions of people are being displaced every year due to natural disasters like tropical cyclones, flooding, landslides, drought and earthquakes. Experts claim that this could rise in the future because of climate change and population growth. Disaster displacement is now being recognized as one the main humanitarian challenges.
The Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) enumerates 10 challenges that are related to climate and disaster displacement. These include the following:
1. We must recognize the facts.
2. We must recognize that people rarely flee for just one reason.
3. We must find out who are the displaced.
4. We must prevent displacement.
5. We must compile better data and analyse risks.
6. We must prevent people from becoming poorer.
7. We must ensure formal protection.
8. We must ensure protection in practice.
9. We must commit.
10. We must work together.
NRC also defines the drivers of displacement as population growth in hazard-prone areas, rapid or unplanned urbanization, unequal distribution of wealth, poor government or state and climate change.
During the previous consultations, key persons working on issues relating to humanitarian action, human rights protection, migration management, disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation, refugee protection and development were brought together to share practical experiences. The intergovernmental global consultation also aims to to build consensus on principles and elements for addressing the necessities of the displaced people affected by disasters and effects of climate change.
This year, the event takes place at the Starling Hotel and Conference Center in Geneva, hosted by the Government of Switzerland and is co-organized with the Government of Norway.
Sources:
Nansen Initiative
Norwegian Refugee Council
The El Niño phenomenon has become one of the most pressing global concerns today. Just recently, PAGASA has issued an update and climate outlook to prepare the public for the impending effects of El Niño, which is now being classified as a “strong” one. El Niño is a climatic condition wherein an unusual increase in sea surface temperature (SST) or warming of the ocean is observed.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says a mature and strong El Niño is now in progress in the tropical Pacific, and will more likely to strengthen before the end of the present year.
WMO added that the 2015-2016 El Niño event will potentially be among the four strongest since 1950. These include the El Niño phenomena experienced during 1972-73, 1982-83 and 1997-98.
Meanwhile, according to the International Research Institute (IRI), the chance of El Niño lasting throughout the March-April-May 2016 season is greater than 95%. It also has a near 78% chance of continuing throughout the April-May-June 2016 season.
PAGASA says that from October this year until March of 2016, the weather systems that may affect the country are the Northeast Monsoon, Tail end of a cold front, Easterly Wave, Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Low Pressure Areas (LPAs), Ridge of High Pressure Area and Tropical Cyclones.
When it comes to rainfall, the forecast of the weather bureau shows significant reduction in the coming months. This October, some areas of Mindanao are expected to receive the highest amount, while most parts of the archipelago may possibly have less rainfall.
20% of our country will experience dry conditions, dry spells and droughts. A dry condition is defined as two consecutive months of below-normal rainfall condition. A dry spell, on the other hand, happens when below-the-normal rainfall is experienced in three consecutive months, while a drought is defined as three consecutive months of way-below normal rainfall.
Currently, 23 provinces are under dry conditions, 10 under dry spells, and 6 are threatened by droughts.
According to PAGASA, four to eight tropical cylones may develop or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) until June 2016. Two to five tropical cyclones are expected to enter the PAR until the end of December 2015.
The public is reminded to keep monitoring updates, and to practice water conservation for preparation against the impacts of the prevailing El Niño.
Sources:
WMO
IRI
PAGASA-DOST
Because cold weather is proven to stimulate our appetites, the good news is that you don’t have to quell your cravings this rainy season. But to make sure you’re still eating healthy, go for foods that don’t only keep you warm, but also boost your energy. Here are some tips in eating smart these “ber” months:
We, Filipinos, are fond of instant noodles, but this is not the kind of MSG- and sodium-filled soup we are talking about. Load up on nutritious soups that are chock-full of vegetables, such as (give examples of veggies that prevent sickness) that strengthen your immune system when it rains. Instead of buying your soup, it’s best to cook it. This way, you can adjust the spices and control the ingredients you put into it.
Hot drinks like coffee are comforting to drink when it’s cold, but remember that too much caffeine lowers your level of body fluids. If you want something to warm your tummies, go for herbal teas that fight bacteria, which prevail during the cold weather. Examples are teas made from basil leaves, ginger, peppermint tea, and honey.
Fruits are a must-eat no matter what season we are in. Fruits help restore energy, which we need to combat lethargy. Bananas are good sources of potassium, dietary fiber and vitamins B6 and C which are good for the heart. Meanwhile, Mangoes are good for digestion because of their fiber and water content. These are also rich in beta-carotene that lowers the development of asthma.
Rainy days are sometimes equated to flu days. To make sure you keep viruses at bay, incorporate more garlic cloves into your daily home-cooked food. If you still don’t know, garlic is an all-around wonder food that helps fight cardiovascular diseases, cancer, viruses and bacteria.
Filipinos are fond of eating white rice. For a healthier option, try brown rice, which fills you up faster because of its high-fiber content. It’s also rich in anti-oxidants, which make cells healthier, and in effect, help your skin glow.
Eating more during the rainy season is not necessarily a bad thing because we need food for energy and warmth. All you need to watch out for is the kind of food you’re eating. If your food is filled with nutrients, then you don’t need to worry about having your fill at the dining table.
Source(s):
http://food.ndtv.com/food-drinks/eat-healthy-stay-healthy-5-foods-to-avoid-this-monsoon-776424
http://www.thefitindian.com/diet-and-nutritional-tips-to-stay-healthy-in-monsoon-season/
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/275921.php
3 months to go before Christmas! But before you start decorating your home and playing Christmas carols, know what to expect this month, weather-wise.
PAGASA declared an El Niño event, likely to strengthen before the end of this year, and may last until April to June of 2016. The weather bureau added that this event could be potentially included in the four strongest El Nino events since 1950. Impacts may include below-normal rainfall, and warmer than normal air temperature.
This month, here are the weather systems likely to prevail:
Tail End of a Cold Front
The Cold Front is an area in the atmosphere where masses of warm and cold air converge, resulting in thunderstorms. Ordinarily the Axis of the Cold Front is in the level of Taiwan or Japan. The only part that is affecting the Philippines is its tail end.
Easterly Wave
The Easterly Wave, also known as Easterlies, are winds coming from the Pacific Ocean, bringing warm and humid air. PAGASA said that the easterly wave could prevail during the month of October before the northeast monsoon (amihan) breaks in. The eastern parts of the country are most likely to experience its effect: thunderstorms and isolated rain showers.
2 Tropical Cyclones this month
Because of the El Niño phenomenon, the average tropical cyclones that are likely to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility this month are between 1-2. Normally, October has an average of 2 to 3 tropical cyclones.
Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
The ITCZ is an area in the atmosphere where winds from the Southern and Northern Hemispheres meet—a convergence that contributes to cloud formation. According to PAGASA, the axis of ITCZ is erratic, so it may affect any part of the country, usually bringing cloudy skies and light to moderate rain showers.
Low Pressure Area
The LPA is an area that has a lower atmospheric pressure than its surrounding locations. This is usually formed in the Pacific Ocean where most water vapor is available. LPA brings light to moderate and sometimes, heavy rain showers. This could also intensify into a tropical cyclone.
October’s Temperature
PAGASA Weather Forecaster Jun Galang explained that during October, temperatures start to deviate which result to colder days. The transition of winds from the Southwest to the Northeast Monsoon influences the average temperature.
Normally, the northeast monsoon (amihan) prevails in the 2nd week of November.
Overall, most of the weather systems this month produce cloudy sky and rain showers. It is advisable to keep monitoring weather updates straight from Panahon TV and PAGASA.
FAST FACTS – October Rainfall Forecast
Below normal rainfall is among the adverse effect of El Niño. This could lead to dry spell and drought condition.
Based on the rainfall forecast from the weather bureau, most parts of the country including the western section of central Luzon and areas over and southern Luzon, western Visayas and some parts of eastern Visayas and Zamboanga Peninsula will have way below normal rainfall.
The Ridge of High Pressure Area extends over the Northern Luzon. Because of this, the whole country will have sunny weather. However, PAGASA warns of isolated rain showers which normally occurs in the afternoon or evening.
Haze in Cebu City
According to environment officials, the haze presence in Cebu City may be the effect of the wildfire raging in Indonesia.
Because of this, temperatures significantly dropped. Normally, the city has an average of 32 degrees Celcius, but with the haze, temperatures are now pegged at 26 – 31 degrees Celsius.
Haze is an atmospheric phenomenon where dust, smoke and other dry particles obscure the clarity of the sky.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Vitetnam Television (VTV), and Climate Central organized a workshop for Asian weather presenters to talk about climate change and how they can be instruments in communicating it to the public. With the theme “Hanoi Workshop for Weather Presenters: Communicating the Science of Climate Change” began on September 29, 2015 in Hanoi, Vietnam.
Read: Panahon TV goes to Vietnam: Workshop for Weather Presenters (Day 1)
After getting to know each other and learning more about climate change, we, participants, were encouraged to apply what we learned. Before jumpstarting a group discussion with scientists, were were grouped into four with each member having the opportunity to pose questions to the climate change experts.
I must say, climate change is a more complicated concept than weather, on which I usually report. There are a lot of things to know and understand about it. Because climate change is an urgent issue that requires action, the media has a big responsibility in presenting the topic in simplified yet comprehensive terms.
Bernadette Woods Placky, the Chief Meteorologist of Climate Central which is an independent organization of leading scientists and journalists who report about the changing climate, discussed how crucial it was to effectively communicate climate science. Currently, Placky works with meteorologists from the United States, and is an Emmy Award-winning meteorologist who spent 10 years as a TV weather forecaster.
According to Placky, we, weather presenters are unique in a way that we are skilled communicators who have large daily audiences. As we encounter complicated science, it is our role is to simplify it for the public. Also part of our duties is to understand local weather and connect it to a bigger climate picture.
She mentioned that including climate change in our news creates many challenges because of its complexity. Other factors that need to be considered are time constraints, and the need to balance the topic with entertainment. It is not considered a “sexy” subject; thus, our reports must have good content, and we must always look presentable.
Placky shared some ways of communicating climate change that worked in the United States:
– Discuss climate change in a separate segment from the weathercast
– Inject climate change information into the weathercast
– Produce a longer news story on climate change
– Create a regular series (weekly, monthly) on climate change
– Add climate change to a seasonal special
– Promote it on other platforms like social media
– Include more science concepts in fair-weather day forecasts
– Connect climate change to local extreme weather
– Give context to climate change by connecting it to a newsworthy national or international story
Placky reminded the participants to always simplify. We can also localize global news, make the story relevant to the viewer, and connect it with current weather patterns.
I felt proud that some of the ways she recommended are already being applied in Panahon TV. We report about climate change and regularly dish out updates on the El Niño phenomenon that currently affects the Philippines, especially the agricultural sector. We are also brewing something, which will allow us to regularly discuss climate change.
After teaching and giving us some pointers, we were given two exercises. The first exercise was reporting the hottest years recorded in an engaging manner.
My groupmates discussed the topic with the provided materials. Based on the data, 2015 is projected to be the hottest year on record due to the strong El Niño.
There were visuals and details given to support each presentation. In our group, I was proud to see everyone contributing to the outline and script of the report.
We decided to use the context of the year 2025. Tin-Tin, one of the Thailand’s twin weather reporters, represented our group. Ms. Placky loved how we creatively thought of reporting the climate change condition 10 years from now. I think every group did a great job on this activity.
For the second exercise, we were told to make another report— this time on the sea level rise and its connection to typhoons. For this exercise, I volunteered to be our group’s presenter because I could relate well with the subject since the Philippines is just beside the Pacific Ocean, where sea level rise is mostly observed.
Sea level rise is a result of water expansion. When water is heated, it expands. The melting of glaciers and land ice contribute to the oceans’ increase of level. According to Rosa Perez of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), higher sea level rise could create higher storm surges, while posing the bigger threat of affecting more inland areas.
Short Video Clip of our presentation
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Every group performed well during our exercises. With the brief time given to us, we were able to apply what we learned and execute creativity with teamwork. Despite the differences, we became united and came up with a successful output!
The day ended like a graduation ceremony where we were handed certificates. But more than these printed documents, the memories we shared in the workshop mattered most. Our concern for our global weather and climate meaningfully brought us together.
And then, the most exciting part of this trip came…our trip to Halong Bay! It took us about four hours to get to Halong City from Hanoi. While having our lunch on a cruise, we were amazed by a very majestic view of the Halong Bay. They said there were thousands of islands found in this UNESCO World Heritage Site.
After enjoying the cruise and kayak, we proceeded to the Thien Cung Cave. This spot amazed me! The space was so huge and the slightly cold ambiance was refreshing. This trip was indeed very memorable for me; not only was it my first trip abroad, it was also my first time to kayak and see stalactites.
We had our last dinner at the Hanoi Buffet Restaurant. The place was impressive with a lot of cuisines to choose from. Right after I finished my meal, they surprised me with a birthday cake and a birthday song in both English and Vietnamese languages. It left me speechless. I am very happy and touched with their sweet gesture. This was probably the most memorable birth week for me!
This workshop taught me a lot, making me realize that mastering the weather was not enough. As a weather presenter, I should also know how current situations are related to climate change. And since climate change is very complex and technical compared to weather, it is my job to simplify the concept and deliver it effectively to our audience.
Climate change is real. We have to act now because our future depends on how we address this global concern. We are now living in a world of “extremes” – extreme heat, extreme coldness, extreme cyclones and extreme drought. This could be the new normal if we do not do anything to prevent climate change impacts. Little by little, let us be united in exerting effort for a more sustainable life.
Kabayan has intensified into tropical storm while traversing Central Luzon. The first landfall was made at 12:20 AM over Baler- San Luis Aurora.
Tropical storm (TS) Kabayan will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains over the provinces of Cavite, Laguna and Batangas.
At 8:00 AM, TS Kabayan was located in the vicinity of Lingayen Gulf, Pangasinan with maximum sustained winds of 65 kph and gustiness of 80 kph. If TS Kabayan maintains its speed and direction west-northwest at 20 kph, it is expected to exit Philippine landmass through La Union or Pangansinan at noontime or this afternoon, and will exit Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday morning.
Sea travel is risky in the seaboards of Northern Luzon and Central Luzon, and the eastern seaboard of Quezon, including Polillo Island.
Today, stormy weather is expected in the provinces of Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Benguet, La Union and Pangasinan.
Meanwhile, rains with gusty winds will prevail in Metro Manila, the rest of Central Luzon, Ilocos Sur, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Isabela, Rizal and Quezon.
Light to moderate rain showers will be experienced in Western Visayas and the rest of Luzon.
The rest of the country will have partly cloudy skies with isolated rains or thunderstorms.
Public Storm Warning Signals
