El Niño Status Report

PAGASA’s climate outlook shows that most parts of the Philippines will probably experience a Meteorological Drought, which, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information, occurs when dry weather patterns dominate an area. Meanwhile, Agricultural Droughts happen when crops are affected.

Because of the ongoing El Niño, the forecast rainfall for February is below-normal or between 41 to 80 percent. Based on the map below, a large part of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao will experience less rainfall. These include the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), except for Apayao where near-normal rainfall is expected.

In Region I, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur and La Union will receive above-normal rainfall. However, Pangasinan will experience a different scenario with only a 22.9 percent amount precipitation in February, which means drought is more probable in this area.

The good news: most provinces in Region II, Central Luzon, National Capital Region, Region IV-A, MIMAROPA and Bicol Region will also receive below to above-normal rainfall, thanks to the Amihan or the Northeast Monsoon and occasional Tail End of a Cold Front, bringing light to moderate rains.

In Region VI, Negros Island Region, Region VII, Region VIII, Davao Region, SOCCSKSARGEN, CARAGA and ARMM, below-normal rainfall is expected, quantified between 41 to 80 percent. The Zamboanga Peninsula and Northern Mindanao are most likely to experience the effect of El Niño this month because of way-below normal rainfall or below 40 percent amount of rains. Most of these areas consist of agricultural farms, thus making it more prone to Agricultural Drought.

According to PAGASA, A Dry Spell is characterized by three consecutive months of below- normal rainfall conditions, while Droughts are defined as having three consecutive months of way below-normal rainfall conditions. In the latest climate outlook of the weather bureau, 26 provinces (31% percent of the country) are likely to experience droughts.

Lanao Del Norte in Region X reported that there are 1,216 hectares of corn, 976 hectares of high-value crops and 694 hectares of rice affected by the Dry Condition. Meanwhile, 22 municipalities of Bukidnon are also suffering from the effect of El Niño, with 31,750 hectares of corn, 1,705 hectares of cassava and 4.0,317 hectares of rice affected by the Dry Season. Maguindanao in ARMM is now placed under a State of Calamity, where more than 20,000 farmers and 17,000 hectares of rice and corn are affected.

The Department of Agriculture (DA) is focusing on providing mitigation programs especially to areas severely affected by the El Niño. Cloud seeding, the process of scattering silver iodide aerosols or dry ice into clouds containing supercooled water to induce rain, is done to abate water scarcity.

The DA is also awaiting the release of a P900 million budget to fast-track the agency’s interventions.

With the unfavorable effects of El Niño, farmers are assured that they can rely on DA. The agency is accepting concerns and inquiries through its DA El Niño Hotline and PhilRice Text Center.