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Bracing for La Niña

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In line with Tropical Cyclone Week, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) conducted a La Niña Forum last June 15, 2016. This year’s theme, Tag- baha at Tag-bagyo, Handa na Tayo!, aims to prepare the public for the impacts of the increasing probability of La Niña.

La Niña is defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as a phenomenon characterized by the unusually low sea surface temperatures or cooling of the ocean in the Equatorial Pacific. As the opposite of El Niño, La Niña will bring more rains, and moderate to strong tropical cyclone activities.

According to the Chief of PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS), Mr. Anthony Lucero, El Niño is still in its decaying stage. It continues to weaken and is more likely to return to neutral condition by the end of June or July.

Though El Niño is currently weakening, Lucero explained that most parts of the country may still feel its impact. Many provinces may still experience below-normal rainfall until next month.

Majority of climate models show a possible development of La Niña during the second half of 2016. Despite this forecast, Lucero said there will be less tropical cyclones this year. “Talagang magkukulang tayo ng bagyo ngayon… pero nangyari na ito noon, walang unusual o abnormal dito.” (We will experience less tropical cyclones, but this has already happened before. Nothing unusual or abnormal about it.)

Annually, the average number of tropical cyclones that enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) is 19 to 21. We’ve already covered half of 2016, yet there is still no sign of a tropical cyclone. According to PAGASA, 8 to 14 tropical cyclones are expected to enter or develop within the boundary from June to November, and possibly a maximum of 16 until December.

Meanwhile, in a separate interview with PAGASA Weather Forecaster Gener Quitlong, he explained that after a strong El Niño episode, our country is likely to experience less number of tropical cyclones. This happened in 1972-1973, wherein we had only 12 tropical cyclones, and 11 tropical cyclones in 1997-1998.

New PAGASA Services

In preparation for the flood and cyclone season, PAGASA continues to upgrade their services. A book entitled, “Patnubay sa Weder Forkasting” was launched this week. This aims not only to simplify technical terms, but also to familiarize everyone with weather terms in other local languages, such as Ilokano and Bikolano.

The creation of the book was headed by the Komisyon sa Wikang Filipino, in close coordination with the weather bureau. Being the first-ever Filipino weather dictionary, it serves as a response to President Noynoy Aquino’s appeal for a more understandable and simplified way of crafting weather forecasts.

Here are some of the commonly used words included in the dictionary:

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PAGASA also introduced an updated version of their mobile application, which includes weather information and flood alerts.

This app is a product of the collaboration between PAGASA and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). Now available for android phones, it can be downloaded through Google Play.

Meanwhile, reading materials, which include information about La Niña, Rainfall Warning System and the Tropical Cyclone Warning System (formerly known as Public Storm Warning Signal), were also launched at the forum. This is part of the Be Sure Project which was successfully made through the help of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).