What Weather Experts Do Not Tell Us

Weather broadcasters and weather forecasters are our friends. They care enough to let us know if we need to bring our umbrellas or skip our laundry duties. Without them, we would not be able to decide whether or not we can pursue our daily activities.

However, our warm and friendly weather practitioners are steeped in mystery. Here are some of their must-know secrets that will either make you clap your hands or make you raise your eyebrows.

1. They often speak with uncertainty.

Have you heard weather broadcasters announce that it will definitely rain today or absolutely be sunny this weekend? I doubt that.

Instead, you will often hear them speak in phrases such as a high chance, very likely, or not eliminating the possibility. They also prefer speaking in ranges in place of a definite value, such as around 33 to 34 degrees of maximum temperature instead of exactly 33.5 degrees.

While this may sound like they are playing safe with their forecasts or have no idea of what they are doing, there are in fact justifiable reasons to support their inconstancy.

First, it is important to know that meteorology is not an exact science. Weather patterns change constantly; otherwise, they can just give away a one-time weather forecast for a year and need not to give us any update. Second, there is no such thing as 100% confidence in meteorology. A high confidence on whether it will rain or not even comes with years of expertise.

2. Their forecasts with long lead times are highly inaccurate.

Do not fully trust weather forecasters when they say the weather will be generally fair three months from now. While their basis might be climatological (meaning they based their forecasts from monthly weather observations in recent years), forecasts with long lead times are very erratic.

Bear in mind that in weather forecasting, shorter lead times lead to more likely outcomes while longer lead times end up with countless possibilities.

To understand the concept, simply imagine yourself as the object of forecast. It is practically easier to determine where your exact location will be four minutes from now, compared to where will you be precisely be four months from now (in which you could end up anywhere in the world). It’s truly hard to figure out!

3. They do not fully rely on scripts or teleprompters.

Many believe that weather broadcasters are like news reporters that either memorize scripts or read lines using teleprompters. Well, sometimes they do – but that is frequently not the case.

Weather reporters do apply the saying that practice (nearly) makes perfect. Just hand them out the weather outlook for the day and they will sort out the scripts into their heads. In fact, the seasoned ones who familiarize themselves with similar forecasts gain a skill resembling an “autopilot”; because they keep on doing the same thing over and over, they only need very little effort in delivering their weather report.

4. Rains and thunderstorms are their biggest enemies.

All true-blue meteorologists can deduce that rains and thunderstorms – not tropical cyclones – are their greatest weaknesses.

Forecasting the presence of rains (rain or no rain) is one thing. However, there is hardly any way we can identify when and where EXACTLY will it rain – unless it’s about to rain or it’s already raining. This is where the concept called nowcasting (forecasting based on the present situation) comes into play. Apart from time and location, the intensity and life span of rains are also difficult to determine.

Aside from rains, thunderstorms are also pains in the neck to rainfall forecasters. Did you know that thunderstorms coming from the seas can only be detected by a mere two to three hours before it can affect the area (and less so when formed inland)? There is just not enough time to decide whether you need to bring your umbrella!

As part of a severe thunderstorm, this may also be the reason why hails and small-scale tornadoes are hard to predict.

5. They are “windproof, waterproof, and holiday-proof”.

Weather doesn’t take a break, and so do our weathermen.

Meteorologists work even the worst of conditions. As a matter of fact, they are compulsorily required to report to duty in times of calamity – the time when they are needed most.

The least fortunate, but somehow the most courageous of all, are the storm chasers. They head out to locations that will be directly affected by tropical cyclones days before its approach. They also brave strong wind gusts and heavy rains with only weather instruments, and report incidences of what has happened afterwards.

Storm chasers and all of our weather experts definitely deserve a big salute!

A lot of issues and mysteries surround our meteorologists and the way they formulate their forecasts, but hopefully a few points are a lot clearer now. So next time, don’t blame it on the weatherman: just blame it on the weather!