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The Philippines remains bagyo-free on the first Monday of 2015. Weather forecaster Glaiza Escullar says in an interview that no weather disturbance has been monitored inside or outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

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Two weather systems remain to influence the country’s weather – the tail-end of a cold front in Eastern Visayas and the northeast monsoon prevailing in Luzon.

The tail-end of a cold front is the boundary between the northeasterlies and the easterlies. The convergence of the cold and dry air of the former and the warm and humid air of the latter generate cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers.

On the other hand, the northeast monsoon or amihan brings light rains over the regions of Cagayan Valley and Cordillera. Isolated rain showers can be experienced in Metro Manila and the remaining parts of Luzon. The rest of the country will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, PAGASA has not issued any gale warnings today after releasing the final advisory yesterday due to the weakened northeast monsoon.

AMIHAN: THE COLDEST DAYS

According to PAGASA, the peak months of the northeast monsoon are January and February when the lowest temperatures during the season are recorded.

In history, the lowest temperature ever recorded in the Philippines was in Baguio City on January 18, 1961 with 6.3 degrees Celsius.

Metro Manila, which has three stations, recorded the lowest temperatures ranging from 14.5 to 14.9 degrees Celsius as shown below:

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As of 1:00 AM today, the low pressure area (LPA) has exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). This LPA was the former Seniang, the last tropical cyclone that entered the PAR last year. Meanwhile, two weather systems will affect the country today, including the tail end of a cold front and the northeast monsoon or amihan that prevails over Luzon.

Due to the gradual intensification of amihan, the tail end of a cold front slightly moved downward, bringing cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms over Eastern Visayas. Amihan, characterized by cold and dry air coming from Mainland China or Siberia, will bring light rains over the Bicol Region, Cagayan Valley, Cordillera, CALABARZON and MIMAROPA. Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated light rains while the rest of the country will have generally fair weather aside from isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

Sea travel is still risky in the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon, and the Visayas, as well as the eastern, western and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon. Wave height could reach up to 3.4 to 4.5 meters, with wind force ranging from 52 to 63 kilometers per hour.

PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier said that this month, the average number of tropical cyclones that may enter PAR is 0 to 1. A cyclone normally moves towards Visayas but there will be an instance that it may also re-curve upward, away from the landmass.

Cold weather greeted the new year yesterday. Here are the 5 lowest temperatures recorded on the 1st day of 2015:

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This morning, PAGASA Weather Forecaster Jori Loiz shared that Baguio City’s temperature dropped to 11°C at 2:00 AM while 20.3°C was recorded at the PAGASA Science Garden in Quezon City.

Lowest Temperature

As amihan peaks this month, the minimum temperatures and colder days are usually felt during this part of the year. However, aside from the chill, this weather system will also bring light rains over the affected areas.

Before 2014 officially ended last night, Seniang further weakened and became a low pressure area (LPA). At 4:00AM today, it was estimated at 210 kilometers south-southeast of Puerto Princesa City. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Chris Perez, it is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight or tomorrow.

Aside from the LPA, the tail end of a cold front, which is formed when the cold air mass dominates the warm air, will affect the Bicol Region. Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon or amihan, characterized by cold and dry air coming from Siberia or Mainland China, will prevail over Northern and Central Luzon. PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier explained that the LPA has weakened due to the effect of amihan or cold intrusion, which is not favorable for the intensification of a tropical cyclone.

As we welcome the first day of a brand new year, some parts of the archipelago will experience rains mostly over Southern Palawan, where the LPA may dump moderate to occasionally heavy rain showers and thunderstorms. Bicol Region, the rest of MIMAROPA and the province of Quezon will have cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms.

Cagayan Valley and Cordillera will experience light rains while Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains. Improved weather will continue over Visayas and Mindanao, with possible isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

Gale warning is still up over the seaboards of Northern, Central and Southern Luzon, and the seaboards of Visayas. These areas will experience rough to very rough sea conditions with wave height ranging from 3.4 to 4.5 meters. Sea travel is risky for fishing boats and other small seacraft.

PAGASA added that no other weather disturbance is being monitored outside the PAR. However, all are still advised to monitor updates from the weather bureau.

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BAGY0_LIST2014

As we begin the countdown to ending another year, we take a look at the weather events that made 2014 memorable, weather-wise.

Situation: Tropical Cyclones

This year, a total of 19 tropical cyclones entered the PAR (Philippine Area of Responsibility).

The first was Agaton, which made its entry last January 17. Though it was identified as a Tropical Depression, the lowest category for cyclones, Agaton caused severe flooding in Eastern Visayas, Northern Mindanao and the CARAGA region.

According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC), 244,344 families were affected in more than a thousand villages in 16 provinces. There were at least 1,147 houses destroyed and more than one thousand partially damaged. All in all, damages in infrastructure and agriculture were estimated at more than 500 million pesos.

Trending Typhoons

From the 19 tropical cyclones that entered PAR, 10 were under the Typhoon category with wind speeds of 118 to 220 kilometers per hour.

1. Domeng
2. Florita
3. Glenda
4. Henry
5. Jose
6. Luis
7. Paeng
8. Neneng
9. 0mpong
10. Ruby

From these 10 typhoons, Ompong and Ruby could be categorized as Super Typhoons.

Entering PAR on October 7 and making its exit on October 11, Ompong, with international name Vongfong, was classified by the U.S Joint Typhoon Warning Center as a Category 5 Super Typhoon.

Packing maximum sustained winds of 215 kilometers per hour and gustiness of 250 kilometers per hour, Ompong—thankfully— did not hit the country as it re-curved towards Mainland Japan.

Related articles: Gazing into the Eye of 2014’s Strongest Typhoon
Strongest Typhoon for 2014 still inside PH

vongfong

But Typhoon Ruby was totally different story. With the fitting “Hagupit” as its international name, Ruby entered the country’s boundary on December 3 and made its way out on December 11. With maximum sustained winds of 215 kilometers per hour and gustiness of 250 kilometers per hour, Ompong made five landfalls.

LANDFALL_RUBY

First landfall: Dolores, Eastern Samar
Second landfall: Cataingan, Masbate
Third landfall: Torrijos, Masbate
Fourth landfall: Laiya, Batangas
Fifth landfall: Lubang, Island

The NDRRMC filed a total of more than four million residents affected in Regions III, IV-A, IV-B, V, VI, VII, VIII, CARAGA and the National Capital Region. 18 deaths were recorded while injured persons reached up to 916. Ruby damaged mostly infrastructure and agriculture—the total cost amounting to more than 5 billion peos.

Due to its devastating impact, a state of calamity was declared in San Pablo City in Laguna, Batangas, Albay, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Masbate, Naga City, Juaban and Gubat in Sorsogon, Sorsogon City, Aklan; Maayon, Dumalag and Panay in Capiz; and Northern and Eastern Samar.

Because fatal storm surges brought by Typhoon Yolanda in 2013 made the public more aware of this weather phenomenon, Ruby kept Filipinos on their toes.

Coincidentally, while Ruby was inside PAR, an astronomical event happened. This was the Full Moon phase, which caused higher tidal variations due to our satellite’s strong gravitational pull.

Weather forecaster Chris Perez explained that higher waves were expected due to the combination of storm surge and the effects of the Full Moon.

Watch the Interview: Storm Tide

Scorching Season

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PAGASA officially announced the start of the Hot and Dry season last March 26. Easterlies, the prevailing wind system during this time, brought hot and humid weather to the country.

Aside from the easterlies, this season’s indicators included the presence of the High Pressure Area (HPA), which brings good weather conditions, the termination of the northeast monsoon, and the increase in temperatures.

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Upon the onset of the Hot and Dry season, the country undeniably experienced a number of scorching days that were especially evident in the Luzon area.

In March, Tuguegarao recorded a maximum temperature of 37.9 degrees Celsius. But its days got hotter in April and May, which brought in temperatures of 39 degrees and 39.8 degrees consecutively.

Meanwhile, the Science Garden in Quezon City documented a high of 36.7 degrees Celsius in May.

The Unpredictable El Niño

ELNINO_STATUS

Within this year, the El Niño phenomenon became a hot topic during the hot season as PAGASA continued to monitor the ups and down of sea surface temperature.

From April 21 to 28, PAGASA recorded a substantial increase in the sea surface temperature anomaly from 0.2 to 0.4 degree Celsius. It was then forecast that El Niño might reach its peak in the last quarter of 2014.

But with the recent report from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, only weak El Nino conditions were observed in November and December.


Here comes the rain!

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The rainy season in the country officially started in June 10. Before declaring the onset of this season, PAGASA first made sure that the following requirements were met:

• Daily thunderstorm activity
• Prevailing southwest monsoon
• 5-day period with a total rainfall of 25 millimeters or more in three consecutive days.

Come on, Amihan!

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The Amihan season was officially declared by PAGASA on October 16. The northeast monsoon or amihan is the prevailing wind system, bringing light rains to its affected areas. It also has cold and dry characteristics, resulting to colder mornings.

At this time of the year, a gradual decrease in temperatures was observed in different parts of the country.

LOWEST 2014

Winter Solstice

Winter season in the northern hemisphere officially started on December 22 this year. This also signaled the start of experiencing longer nights and shorter days in the Philippines.

During the winter solstice, the northern hemisphere leans the farthest distance from the Sun, causing longer nights and lower temperatures for those in the northern hemisphere. The opposite happens in the southern hemisphere where people experience the longest day.

Related article: Winter has arrived

Although a lot has happened this year, there’s more to come this 2015. So brace yourself for those inevitable storms, but remember to keep to the sunny side of the street. With all the changes the weather brings, one thing stays the same: the Filipino brand of resilience that knows no bounds.

MTSAT Image from PAGASA.
MTSAT Image from PAGASA.

Rains will be concentrated over Eastern Visayas and the Bicol Region where cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms are expected. These rains are brought by the diffused tail end of a cold front, a weather system that occurs when the cold air mass dominates the warm air mass during convergence. Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon or amihan continues to blow through Northern and Central Luzon.

Cagayan Valley, Cordillera, and the provinces of Aurora and Quezon will have cloudy skies with light rains, while the rest of Northern and Central Luzon will experience isolated light rains. Metro Manila and the rest of the country can look forward to generally fair weather with a chance of isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

For sea travelers, gale warning is up over the seaboards of Northern and Southern Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon. These areas will experience rough to very rough sea conditions due to the surge of amihan. Coastal waters in the rest of the country will be moderate to rough.

Amihan peaks in January

Amihan, characterized as cold and dry air blowing from mainland China or Siberia, began to affect the Philippines last October 16, 2014. However, during the ber months, it’s still not completely felt all over the country. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Jori Loiz, this wind system will peak on January wherein the ocean has lower thermal capacity, which means it cannot absorb much heat. Minimum temperatures are usually recorded during this month.

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PAGASA monitored three weather systems affecting the country today. The northeast monsoon or amihan is affecting Northern Luzon while the tail end of a cold front is affecting Eastern Visayas. Meanwhile, the trough of low pressure area (LPA) is still affecting Southern Luzon.

According to PAGASA weather forecaster Alvin Pura, only the trough or the extension of LPA is affecting the said area, but the LPA alone is outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and has a slim chance of entering the boundary.

Today, the Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanano will have cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms. Light rains will be experienced in Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos Region.

Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will have fair weather conditions. Isolated rains are still expected in the afternoon or evening.

Lowest Temperature in Quezon City

Throughout the amihan season, Quezon City has recorded its lowest temperature today. As of 5 AM, temperature dropped to 20.8 degree Celsius.

Pura said that an even lower temperature might be experienced in the next coming days.

December 19 2014

MTSAT Image from PAGASA
MTSAT Image from PAGASA

The northeast monsoon or amihan, characterized as cold and dry air coming from Mainland China, continues to prevail over Northern Luzon. The tail end of a cold front will also prevail over Central and Southern Luzon. This weather system occurs when the cold air dominates the warm air mass during convergence.

Meanwhile, the trough or the extended cloudiness of a low pressure area (LPA) will affect Mindanao. PAGASA Weather Forecaster Jun Galang said that as the LPA moves in a westward direction, there is a slim chance for it to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).Continuous monitoring will be done since the clouds of the said LPA are already disorganized.

This Wednesday, rainfall will be concentrated over Metro Manila, Rizal, Aurora, Quezon, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas and Mindanao. These areas will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms. The regions of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos will be cloudy with light rains while the rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

Strong winds associated with the surge of amihan will bring rough to very rough sea conditions over the northern seaboard of Northern Luzon, western seaboard of Northern and Central Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Northern and Central Luzon. Sea travel is risky over Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, the northern coast of Cagayan. Ilocos, La Union, Pangasinan, Bataan, Zambales, Isabela, and the eastern coasts of Cagayan and Aurora.

Simbang Gabi Forecast

“Simbang Gabi” or “Misa de Gallo” began yesterday, the 16th of December. Here’s a special weather forecast for those who are going to attend the anticipated mass this evening.

Luzon

Luzon 2

Visayas

Mindanao

The cloud cluster being monitored by PAGASA has already developed into a weather disturbance. At 4:00 AM today, the low pressure area (LPA) was estimated at 220 kilometers east of Surigao City. PAGASA Weather Forecaster Glaiza Escullar said it has a slim chance of developing into a tropical cyclone as it moves closer to cross the southern part of Visayas and Northern Mindanao today. The LPA could dissipate within the next 24 hours.

MTSAT Image from PAGASA
MTSAT Image from PAGASA

Aside from the LPA, the tail end of a cold front, wherein the cold air mass dominates the warm air during convergence, will also affect Central Luzon. On the other hand, the northeast monsoon or amihan, characterized as cold and dry air coming from Siberia, continues to prevail over the Northern Luzon. These weather systems are expected to bring rains over some parts of the country.

Central Luzon, Eastern Visayas and CARAGA will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms. The regions of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos will have cloudy skies with light rains. Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

Due to the surge of amihan, gale warning remains over the seaboards of Northern Luzon, which include Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Cagayan, Isabela. Ilocos, La Union and Pangasinan. Fishing boats and other small seacraft are prohibited from venturing out due to the rough to very rough sea conditions.

Amihan also brings a slight temperature drop over the north. Basco, Batanes felt a chilly morning yesterday with a temperature of 15.6 degrees Celsius. Below are the lowest temperatures recorded by PAGASA yesterday, on the 15th of December.

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The cloud clusters being monitored this weekend is now inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

State meteorologist Buddy Javier says in an interview with PanahonTV this morning that the said clouds have not yet developed into a low pressure area. However, continuous monitoring will be implemented as these are forecast to move closer to our landmass and bring rains in the eastern section of Visayas and Mindanao.

Today, the tail-end of a cold front will bring light to moderate rain showers in the provinces of Aurora, Quezon and Palawan. Meanwhile, light rains will be experienced in Northern Luzon, particularly over the regions of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos due to the northeast monsoon. The rest of the country, including Metro Manila, can expect fair weather conditions apart from localized rain showers or thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, rough to very rough sea condition is expected over the seaboards of Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, the northern and eastern coast of Cagayan, the northern coast of Ilocos Norte and Isabela as well as the eastern seaboards of Aurora, Zambales and Bataan. The agency advises against sea travel in the mentioned coasts due to the strong to gale force winds associated with the northeast monsoon surge.

MTSAT Image from PAGASA
MTSAT Image from PAGASA

TRIVIA OF THE DAY

As we count 10 more days until Christmas, many Catholics prepare to attend the Simbang Gabi starting tomorrow at dawn. Simbang gabi, also known as Misa de Gallo, is a Filipino Christmas tradition practiced by Roman Catholics in anticipation of the birth of Jesus Christ.

Originating from the days of Spanish rule, it is a 9-day series of masses from December 16 to 24, the last of which is the midnight mass.

Most Filipinos believe that if a devotee completes the nine days of the Simbang Gabi, a request or wish will be granted. After the mass, churchgoers would buy and eat traditional delicacies such as bibingka and puto bumbong sold in the food stalls in the churchyard.