The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) remains as the dominant weather system today. This is a region in the atmosphere where winds from the northern and southern hemispheres meet, resulting to cloud formation.

The axis of ITCZ has oscillated, affecting Visayas and Mindanao. The clouds due to ITCZ will dump rains over Mindanao, Western and Central Visayas, and Palawan.

The rest of Luzon, including Metro Manila, will enjoy good weather today. However, thunderstorms are frequent this rainy season so expect isolated rain showers. In turn, PAGASA will issue thunderstorm warnings on social media accounts.

What is in for August?

The average number of tropical cyclones for August is between 3 to 4, but with the effect of the ongoing moderate El Niño phenomenon, an average of 2 to 4 cyclones are expected to affect, or at least enter the Philippine boundary.

El Niño, as defined by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is “a phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a positive surface temperature departure from normal in the Niño region 3.4 greater than or equal in magnitude to 0.5 degrees C, averaged over three consecutive months”. El Niño occurs when there is a significant rise in sea surface temperature.

Based on the forecast track of PAGASA, 2 out of 4 cyclones are expected to cross Northern Luzon this month of August before leaving PAR. Meanwhile, there will be chances that cyclones will re-curve and will not make any landfall. However, this could intensify the southwest monsoon, which will result to heavy rain showers.