bagyo – Page 2 – PanahonTV

Tropical Depression “Dante” left the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) without hitting any of the country’s landmass.

At 4:00 AM today, the center of the tropical depression was estimated at 1,450 kilometers east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan. It has maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center, and gustiness of up to 60 kph, moving northeast at 20 kph.

According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Samuel Duran, the High Pressure Area (HPA) affected the direction of the weather disturbance.

Today, the extension of a Fontal System is affecting extreme Northern Luzon. Cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and isolated thunderstorms will prevail in the province of Batanes and the Islands of Calayan and Babuyan. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms will be experienced in Metro Manila and the rest of the country mostly in the afternoon or evening.

A new weather disturbance is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this week.

According to PAGASA, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) previously spotted outside PAR has developed into a tropical depression. As of 10 AM, it was located 1,540 kilometers east of Mindanao. It has maximum sustained winds of 45 kph and gustiness of 60 kph, slowly moving at a west-northwest direction.
According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Loriedin dela Cruz, the LPA can possibly enter PAR within 24 hours. If this happens, the tropical depression will be given the local name “Dante,” this month’s second tropical cyclone.

Today, Easterlies or warm and humid air from the Pacific Ocean prevail in the eastern sections of the country. This weather system will bring partly cloudy to cloudy skies or generally fair weather in the entire archipelago except for isolated rain showers or thunderstorms. Humid weather is still expected to prevail.

After bringing rains in Bicol Region, portions of Visayas and Mindanao, Tropical Depression Bising has weakened into a Low Pressure Area (LPA).

At 4:00 AM today, the LPA was estimated at 725 kilometers east of Juban, Sorsogon. In the next hours it will still bring cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and isolated thunderstorms in Eastern Visayas, Caraga and the province of Palawan.

Meanwhile, the Northeast Monsoon in Northern and Central Luzon will cause cloudy skies with light rains in Cagayan Valley. In Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains will prevail. Generally fair weather will be experienced in the rest of Visayas and Mindanao only with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

PAGASA earlier explained that Bising recurved due to the strong wind shear near the Philippines, pushing tropical cyclones away from the landmass.

Strong to gale force winds associated with the surge of the Northeast Monsoon are also bringing rough to very rough seas in these provinces:

A few weeks from entering the “ber” months, here are eight things you should know about the 8th month of the year in the aspects of weather and astronomy.

1. Habagat = Rain

The effect of the Southwest Monsoon prevails this month and may be aggravated by a weather disturbance. Locally known as Hanging Habagat, these warm and moist winds will bring rain mostly in the western section of Luzon and Visayas.

Another weather system making its appearance is the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), an area where winds coming from the northern and southern hemispheres meet. When the winds converge, convective clouds are formed, bringing rains in affected areas.

The ITCZ is also considered as the breeding ground of the Low Pressure Area (LPA), which may develop and intensify into it a tropical cyclone or “bagyo”. However, the Ridge of the High Pressure area (HPA) could still extend over the boundary and may bring warm and fair weather in certain areas.

2. Bagyo Season far from over

According to PAGASA, an average of 2 to 4 tropical cyclones enter the Philippine Area
of Responsibility (PAR) every August. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Gener Quitlong, the impending La Niña may also increase the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.

3. “Hit or miss”
In terms of cyclone tracks, the historical record of PAGASA shows two scenarios. Cyclones may hit land, particularly the Luzon area or may just move closer to the landmass before moving farther away, sparing our country.

4. Normal temperatures
In Metro Manila, temperatures may range from 24.2 to 31.3 degrees Celsius. Metro Cebu will have 25 degrees Celsius as its normal minimum temperature and 31.7 degrees Celsius as the normal maximum. In Mindanao, particularly in Metro Davao, temperatures may reach 24 to 31.7 degrees Celsius.

5. Near-normal to normal rainfall
After several months of way below-normal rainfall and drought, affected areas may now experience improved rainfall conditions. Most parts in the country will experience near- normal or 81% or more of the normal amount of rainfall. If the Habagat becomes dominant, rains may be concentrated in the western section of Luzon and Visayas.

6. Looming La Niña
Based on the latest report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), La Niña is expected to develop this year, but may not be as strong as the previous La Niña episode that occurred in 2010-2011.

La Niña is characterized by the unusual large-scale cooling of ocean temperatures in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific (CEEP). Though there is no chance for El Niño to re-develop, there is a 50- 60% probability of a La Niña development in the 3rd quarter of this year and may last until the end of 2016.

La Niña is often associated with wet conditions in some parts of Asia including the Philippines. It will bring more rains, slightly cooler temperatures, and moderate to strong tropical cyclone activities.

7. Shooting stars
Look up! According to PAGASA, August is an ideal time for skywatchers and astronomy enthusiasts. This month, spectators may enjoy the Perseids Meteor Shower, which will peak in the late evening to the early morning hours of August 12 to 13. If favorable weather permits, one can observe at least 50 meteors or more.

According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), perseid meteors travel at a speed of 132,000 miles per hour or 59 kilometers per second.

8. Parade of planets
Did you miss the alignment of five planets last February? Fret not; the space has something in store for you this month! Five bright planets in the solar system will once again align in the night sky, visible to the naked eye.

One will be able to witness Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn by tracing a line away from the setting sun. The best time to see this event is on August 18 when the moon is on its full phase. The light from the full moon will help illuminate the fainter planets, making it more visible for the observer. It is advisable to find a dark and unobstructed area – without low lying buildings or trees.

Sources:
PAGASA-DOST
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
www.earthsky.org
www.sciencealert.com

For most schools in the Philippines, June still marks the beginning of another school year. Ironically, this month usually coincides with the rainy season wherein heavy downpour, floods and class suspensions are
common occurrences.

Will June’s weather make it hard for students to go to school? Let’s find out what PAGASA has to say.

WEATHER SYSTEMS
In an interview with PanahonTV, Weather Forecaster Gener Quitlong said that seven different weather systems are likely to prevail at this time of the year:

Ridge of High Pressure Area – an extended part of an anti-cyclone that suppresses cloud formation, causing lesser chance of rains or fair weather condition.

Southwest Monsoon ¬- characterized by warm and moist air, the southwest monsoon or habagat usually speeds up cloud formation. Once enhanced by a tropical cyclone, the habagat can bring heavy downpour, which may cause floods in the western section of the country.

Intertropical Convergence Zone – refers to an area in the atmosphere where clouds are formed from the convergence of winds coming the northern and southern hemispheres. It can be a breeding ground of weather disturbances.
Easterlies – With warm and humid characteristics, these winds usually affect the eastern section of the county, bringing chances of thunderstorms.
Localized Thunderstorms – During warm days, heat speeds up evaporation and creates more clouds, which may dump moderate to heavy rains. Thunderstorms usually occur in the afternoon or evening, and last for one to two hours.
Low Pressure Area – an area in the atmosphere with a lower atmospheric pressure than its surroundings. Low pressure areas could usually develop into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone – The general term for a cyclone or bagyo, this weather disturbance is classified into four depending on its maximum sustained winds: tropical depression, tropical storm, typhoon and super typhoon.

2016’S FIRST BAGYO?
We’re almost halfway through the year but due to the El Niño-induced climatological drought, the Philippines is yet to have its first tropical cyclone.

According to Quitlong, an average of zero or one tropical cyclone enters the country’s boundary every June.

Should we have a tropical cyclone this month, it will be named Ambo. One of these scenarios is likely to happen:

EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA
El Niño phenomenon, the unusual warming of the Pacific Ocean, continues to weaken and may return to neutral condition in July.
However, PAGASA remains to be on a La Niña Watch, as there is a 50% chance of a La Niña development in the latter part of 2016.

For now, most parts of the country will continue to experience below-normal rainfall conditions except in Northern Luzon and parts of Zamboanga Peninsula, where above-normal rainfall conditions will be experienced this month.

HABAGAT IS BACK

According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Chris Perez, the habagat will strengthen in the coming week and may extend over Central and Southern Luzon.

“Hindi lamang dito sa ating bansa kundi maging dito sa West Philippine Sea, inaasahan natin, sa mga darating na araw simula ng Wednesday hanggang Biyernes ay posibleng mas maraming pag-ulan na dulot ng habagat at mas magiging maulan ang nakararaming bahagi ng ating bansa hindi lamang dito sa kanlurang bahagi, posibleng umabot na rin dito sa silangang bahagi dito sa may Palawan area, hanggang sa Kanlurang Kabisayaan,” stated Perez in an interview last Sunday, June 4, 2016.

“In the coming days, specifically from Wednesday to Friday, the habagat will start to pour more rains in the country. Rainy days are expected in the eastern and western sections of the Philippines, and could extend over Palawan and the Western Visayas.”

Rising temperatures, sweltering heat, and that sticky feeling – there’s no doubt that we’re already experiencing tag-init! To help you understand those weather reports better, here are some of the meteorological terms that you will often encounter this season:

1. DRY SEASON
Technically, we do not have “summer”. The Philippines, being a tropical country, has only two official seasons – wet and dry. Summer is experienced in temperate regions with four seasons. In our country, Dry season or tag-init is the equivalent of summer.

2. EASTERLIES
These are warm and humid winds coming from the Pacific Ocean, which usually affect the eastern section of the country. However, since warm air or heat is a major factor for cloud formation, Easterlies can also generate isolated thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon or evening.

3. RIDGE OF HPA
“Ridge” refers to the extended part of a High Pressure Area or an anticyclone. Unlike a Low Pressure Area, this indicates an area where the atmospheric pressure is higher than its surroundings.

Formation of clouds is usually suppressed, thus, less chance of rains. Fair weather is typically experienced when a Ridge of High Pressure Area extends over the archipelago.

4. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
Many people still get confused when they hear this. Generally fair weather means partly cloudy to cloudy skies with chances of isolated rain showers or thunderstorms. Less than half of the day will be cloudy, but rains are still possible, depending on the prevailing weather system.

On the other hand, “isolated” means localized. This means that it may be raining in your place, but not in the nearby areas. It happens when clouds are scattered in different parts of the atmosphere.

5. AIR TEMPERATURE
Air temperature is determined by using a weather instrument, commonly a thermometer. Also termed as “surface temperature”, it is obtained when a thermometer is exposed to the air but is sheltered from direct sun exposure.

6. HUMIDITY
Humidity is the amount of water vapor or moisture in the air. It can make high temperatures even more unbearable, often with a moist or “malagkit” feeling. Humidity is an important factor that affects the weather and climate as well.

7. HEAT INDEX
Also called as “human discomfort index”, heat index refers to the temperature obtained from the high air temperature and relative humidity. It also describes how the human body perceives the heat or the warm weather.

PAGASA says full exposure to sunlight may increase the heat index by 9 degrees Celsius. PAGASA Weather Forecaster Aldczar Aurelio says the heat index is always higher than the actual air temperature. High heat indices could lead to fatigue, heat cramps, heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

8. THUNDERSTORM
Despite the fact that we are already in Tag-init Season, we may still experience rains brought by thunderstorms. Most people get confused when a downpour occurs after hours of scorching heat.

According to Former US Vice President Al Gore, also the founder of the Climate Reality Project, warmer air holds more moisture. Heat also speeds up the evaporation, bringing more clouds, which could later dump moderate to heavy rains.

During a thunderstorm, lightning and thunder also occur, along with gusty winds. Thunderstorms usually occur in the afternoon or evening, which can last for 1 to 2 hours.

9. EL NIÑO
El Niño is a climatic condition wherein an unusual increase in sea surface temperature (SST) or warming of the ocean is observed. In the Philippines, it mostly affects the agricultural sector due to reduced rainfall and warmer weather.

PAGASA says the prevailing El Niño may also have an effect on the current Hot and Dry season. Temperatures may continue to rise, and the duration of tag-init may be prolonged as well.

10. TROPICAL CYCLONE
Tropical cyclone is the general term for a “bagyo,” which starts out from a cloud cluster that develops into a Low Pressure Area (LPA), which has an atmospheric pressure lower than its surrounding locations.

One common misconception during tag-init is that it’s not normal to have a Tropical Cyclone. Every month, there is a chance for a Tropical Cyclone to enter or develop within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

In fact, we monitored “Bagyong Chedeng” just last year and it coincided with the observance of the Holy Week. Chedeng intensified as a Typhoon and even made landfall in Isabela.

This April, the average number of tropical cyclone is 0 or 1. When it comes to the track, it may make landfall or may re-curve northward away from the landmass.

Sources:
PAGASA-DOST
NOAA
www.mymobilebay.com
www.study.com

15 tropical cyclones entered Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in 2015, lower than the average of 18 to 20 cyclones in a year. The major factor that decreased the number of cyclones is the current strong El Niño phenomenon.

However, stronger cyclones were felt due to El Niño—some of these having cause massive destruction. When this happens, PAGASA decommissions cyclone names that have had severe impacts on lives and properties.

In line with this, PAGASA confirmed that “Nona” will be no longer used as cyclone name. Nona, with international name Melor, entered PAR last December 12, 2015.

At least one of two factors needs to be considered before delisting or decommissioning a cyclone name.

A. Cost of Damages
– 1 billion pesos or more, including damage in infrastructure and agriculture

B. Casualty
– 300 casualties or more

Based on the recent report from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), data shows that Nona wreaked damages of more than 1 billion pesos. An estimated coast of damage to infrastructure and agriculture amounting to P6, 455, 183, 879.80 were reported in Regions II, III, IV-A, IV-B, and VIII.

PAGASA also announced that the agency is open to suggestions on Nona’s name replacement. The public is urged to send suggested names through the weather bureau’s poll on Facebook. Current suggestions include Nimfa, Nardo and Nanding. To cast your vote, follow this link: NONA Replacement Poll.

This 2015, we experienced fewer but enhanced Tropical Cyclones. A deciding factor is the strong El Niño, which continues to prevails throughout the world. But as we welcome the new year, here’s what we can expect, weather-wise.
According to PAGASA, the Amihan or Northeast Monsoon will prevail, bringing cold weather and light rains over Cagayan Valley and the province of Aurora. Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will continue to have good weather conditions with chances of isolated light rains. Meanwhile, in Visayas and Mindanao, generally fair weather will be experienced, with possible localized thunderstorms in most parts of the eastern section due to the easterly wave.

For those who are still having their vacation out of town, you can still enjoy sightseeing as there will be NO bagyo on New Year’s Day.

In line with this, an average of 18-21 bagyo will be experienced this 2016. Here’s the lists of names of the possible bagyo.

Because of thesStrong El Niño, we might be experiencing fewer than the normal average number of bagyo. But if there will be more than 25, an auxiliary list from PAGASA will be released.

But until then, let’s welcome New Year’s Day wholeheartedly, as we enjoy the good weather conditions it brings!

A couple of days before Christmas, the Tropical Storm with international name “Melor” has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at around 4:00A M today. It was given a local name “Nona”, the 14th tropical cyclone that entered the boundary this year.

At 10:00 AM today, it was estimated at 1, 025 kilometers east of Maasin, Southern Leyte. Carrying winds of 65 kilometer per hour and gustiness of up to 80 kilometer per hour, it is expected to move west-northwest at 17 kilometers per hour.

Nona may make landfall over Bicol Region on Tuesday morning if it maintains its speed and direction. Tomorrow morning, sea conditions in Southern Luzon and Visayas will become rough to very rough, making it risky for fishing boats and other seacraft to venture into the coastal waters. PAGASA Weather Specialist Rene Paciente says Public Storm Warning Signals (PSWS) may be hoisted tomorrow afternoon in the Bicol and Samar areas.

PAGASA alerted the residents of Bicol and Eastern Visayas as occasional rains and gusty winds may be experienced over Northern Samar and Bicol Region starting Monday. As of now, Nona has no direct effect yet on any part of the country.

Meanwhile, the Northeast Monsoon continues to affect the Northern Luzon. Cloudy skies with light rains will be experienced in the regions of Ilocos, Cordillera and Cagayan Valley. Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, and the rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with chances of isolated light rains and/or thunderstorms.

NONOY to NONA

The initial list of Tropical Cyclone names shows that the 14th cyclone that will enter the PAR this year will be named “Nonoy”. However, upon entering the PAR, the weather bureau decided to change it to “Nona”.

According to PAGASA, they changed the name because it sounds like “Noynoy,” which is the current president’s nickname. PAGASA Information Unit Chief Venus Valdemoro added that they do not want it to be offensive or linked to any prominent person. They also do not want people to focus on the name, but to emphasize the preparedness and urgency instead.