PAGASA Weather Forecaster Samuel Duran said we can expect good weather conditions today. The weak northeast monsoon continues to affect the extreme Northern Luzon, making the whole country experience sunny and partly cloudy weather.
Duran said that upon monitoring weather conditions outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, no weather disturbance has been observed. The average number of tropical cyclone for March is 0 to 1 due to the presence of easterlies. However thunderstorm activity will be apparent mostly on the eastern section of the country.
March is Women’s Month
National Women’s Month is now being observed all over the country with the theme “Juana, Desisyon Mo ay Mahalaga sa Kinabukasan ng Bawat Isa. Ikaw Na!”
In line with this, the Philippine Commission on Women (PCW), in partnership with Government Service Insurance System (GSIS), invited shutterbugs to join the nationwide photo contest showcasing the role of women in society.
The photo contest is open to all Filipino amateur photo enthusiasts. P10,000 cash prize awaits photographers of 12 selected photo entries.
See details below for more information.
Bagyong Amang came when the Pope arrived in the Philippines. Now it’s dissipating on the same day Pope Francis is leaving the country.
Amang, known as Mekkhala internationally, has weakened into a low pressure area this morning. Public Storm Warning Signals have been lifted.
Estimated at 85 km Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora at 10 am today, it is still expected to bring light to moderate rains over the regions Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos.
State Meteorologist Glaiza Escullar says that the said weather disturbance has weakened due to the following factors:
1) Vertical wind shear. With a stronger wind shear, the heat is dispersed over a large area, weakening the tropical cyclone.
2) Friction effect.
3) Sea condition. As it moves relatively northward, the sea surface temperature gets lower, unable to sustain the strength of the bagyo.
4) Northeast monsoon. Cold and dry air intrusion is not conducive for any weather disturbance as this needs warm temperature to develop.
Expected to dissipate within 24 hours, Amang has made landfall thrice as a tropical cyclone and has crossed another as a low pressure area. Here’s its latest landfall track:
Today, the regions of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos will continue to experience light to moderate rains due to the existing weather disturbance. The rest of Luzon, including Metro Manila, will have cloudy skies with light rains caused by the prevailing northeast monsoon.
Visayas and Mindanao, on the other hand, can expect improved weather conditions apart from isolated thunderstorms.
In other related news, gale warning has been issued over the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon, and the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon. Wave height may reach up to 4.5 meters, making sea travel risky
in the following hours.
LAST DAY OF THE PAPAL VISIT
After a 5-day visit, the Pope will be leaving for Rome at 10 AM today. A departure ceremony will be held at the Presidential Pavilion of the Villamor Airbase.
At 4 AM today, a tropical depression (TD) was located at 1,610 kilometers east of Mindanao with maximum winds of 55 kph and moving west-northwest at 19 kph.
PAGASA Meteorologist Jun Galang says that the tropical depression is forecast to enter the PAR (Philippine Area of Responsibility) today or tomorrow morning. Two possible scenarios are expected to happen. First, there is a chance that it will make its landfall in the Bicol Region. Its effect will be experience too in Metro Manila. The other scenario is that the TD will re-curve, not hitting any part of the landmass. Either of the two, this will bring light to moderate rains, especially in Eastern Visayas and the Bicol Region.
Meanwhile, today, the northeast monsoon is still affecting Luzon, bringing light rains and cold weather over Cagayan Valley and Cordillera. Isolated light rains may still affect Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon.
CARAGA and the provinces of Leyte and Bohol will have cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers. Possible occurrence of thunderstorms is also expected in the said areas. The rest of Visayas and Mindanao will continue to have fine weather aside from isolated rains and thunderstorms.
Welcome, Pope Francis!
Tomorrow, Pope Francis will arrive at the Villamor Airbase at 5:45 in the afternoon.Churches in the whole archipelago are encouraged to ring their bells as a sign of welcoming the Pope in the country.
The state weather bureau said that fair weather condition or partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains will prevail tomorrow over Metro Manila.
The tail-end of a cold front now affects Mindanao, bringing cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers, particularly over the regions of Northern Mindanao, CARAGA and Central Visayas, as well in the provinces of Leyte and Negros Occidental.
Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will be experiencing fair weather conditions, apart from isolated light rains due to the prevailing northeast monsoon.
The remaining parts of Visayas and Mindanao can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms in the following hours.
Meanwhile, State Meteorologist Buddy Javier says that although the satellite shows a cluster of clouds outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, it has a low chance of developing into a low pressure area.
THE JANUARY NIGHT SKY
On this first week of 2015, the northern hemisphere night sky is favored by the first meteor shower of the year.
The annual Quadrantid meteor shower has been active since January 1 and will last until January 7. Peaking on the first weekend of the year, between midnight and dawn of January 3 and 4, a rate of at least 40 meteors per hour can be seen, says Engr. Dario Dela Cruz, PAGASA Space Sciences and Astronomy Section Chief.
However, the almost fully illuminated moon hinders the display this year, making visibility a challenge to avid skywatchers, except for a very short window of peak activity.
The said meteor shower was named after the extinct 17th century constellation Quadrans Muralis or the Wall Quadrant.
2015 is here! Another year, another set of goals. But before we outline our plans for the new year, let us first familiarize ourselves with this month’s weather.
1) Rains won’t go away yet.
This month marks the start of another year but rainy days won’t end yet for some areas of the country. PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier said the northeast monsoon or amihan and the tail end of a cold front will be dominant. Amihan is cold and dry air coming from Mainland China or Siberia, bringing light rains mostly over Northern and Central Luzon.
Meanwhile, the tail end of a cold front refers to the extended part of a cold front which is formed when the cold air mass dominates the warm air mass during a convergence. Javier added that at this time, Southern Luzon usually experiences cloudy skies, as well as light and moderate to occasionally heavy rain showers and thunderstorms. However, the tail end of a cold front can recede or move, depending on the strength of amihan.
2) January’s not totally “bagyo-free”.
According to PAGASA, the average number of tropical cyclones that usually enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this month is 0 to 1. This means that there is still a chance for us to experience stormy weather even in the first month of the year.
Climatologically speaking, a cyclone that may enter the PAR could cross the archipelago or make landfall, particularly over the Visayas area. It is also possible for it to re-curve, moving away from the landmass. The surge of the northeast monsoon or amihan influences its movement.
3) The much awaited sweater-weather is here.
Amihan peaks this month, bringing colder weather mostly over Luzon. Minimum temperatures are usually recorded during this chilly part of the year. One of the significant amihan-related events happened on January 18, 1961 when Baguio City’s temperature dropped to 6.3 degrees Celsius.
As we begin the countdown to ending another year, we take a look at the weather events that made 2014 memorable, weather-wise.
Situation: Tropical Cyclones
This year, a total of 19 tropical cyclones entered the PAR (Philippine Area of Responsibility).
The first was Agaton, which made its entry last January 17. Though it was identified as a Tropical Depression, the lowest category for cyclones, Agaton caused severe flooding in Eastern Visayas, Northern Mindanao and the CARAGA region.
According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC), 244,344 families were affected in more than a thousand villages in 16 provinces. There were at least 1,147 houses destroyed and more than one thousand partially damaged. All in all, damages in infrastructure and agriculture were estimated at more than 500 million pesos.
Trending Typhoons
From the 19 tropical cyclones that entered PAR, 10 were under the Typhoon category with wind speeds of 118 to 220 kilometers per hour.
1. Domeng
2. Florita
3. Glenda
4. Henry
5. Jose
6. Luis
7. Paeng
8. Neneng
9. 0mpong
10. Ruby
From these 10 typhoons, Ompong and Ruby could be categorized as Super Typhoons.
Entering PAR on October 7 and making its exit on October 11, Ompong, with international name Vongfong, was classified by the U.S Joint Typhoon Warning Center as a Category 5 Super Typhoon.
Packing maximum sustained winds of 215 kilometers per hour and gustiness of 250 kilometers per hour, Ompong—thankfully— did not hit the country as it re-curved towards Mainland Japan.
Related articles: Gazing into the Eye of 2014’s Strongest Typhoon
Strongest Typhoon for 2014 still inside PH
But Typhoon Ruby was totally different story. With the fitting “Hagupit” as its international name, Ruby entered the country’s boundary on December 3 and made its way out on December 11. With maximum sustained winds of 215 kilometers per hour and gustiness of 250 kilometers per hour, Ompong made five landfalls.
First landfall: Dolores, Eastern Samar
Second landfall: Cataingan, Masbate
Third landfall: Torrijos, Masbate
Fourth landfall: Laiya, Batangas
Fifth landfall: Lubang, Island
The NDRRMC filed a total of more than four million residents affected in Regions III, IV-A, IV-B, V, VI, VII, VIII, CARAGA and the National Capital Region. 18 deaths were recorded while injured persons reached up to 916. Ruby damaged mostly infrastructure and agriculture—the total cost amounting to more than 5 billion peos.
Due to its devastating impact, a state of calamity was declared in San Pablo City in Laguna, Batangas, Albay, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Masbate, Naga City, Juaban and Gubat in Sorsogon, Sorsogon City, Aklan; Maayon, Dumalag and Panay in Capiz; and Northern and Eastern Samar.
Because fatal storm surges brought by Typhoon Yolanda in 2013 made the public more aware of this weather phenomenon, Ruby kept Filipinos on their toes.
Coincidentally, while Ruby was inside PAR, an astronomical event happened. This was the Full Moon phase, which caused higher tidal variations due to our satellite’s strong gravitational pull.
Weather forecaster Chris Perez explained that higher waves were expected due to the combination of storm surge and the effects of the Full Moon.
Watch the Interview: Storm Tide
Scorching Season
PAGASA officially announced the start of the Hot and Dry season last March 26. Easterlies, the prevailing wind system during this time, brought hot and humid weather to the country.
Aside from the easterlies, this season’s indicators included the presence of the High Pressure Area (HPA), which brings good weather conditions, the termination of the northeast monsoon, and the increase in temperatures.
Upon the onset of the Hot and Dry season, the country undeniably experienced a number of scorching days that were especially evident in the Luzon area.
In March, Tuguegarao recorded a maximum temperature of 37.9 degrees Celsius. But its days got hotter in April and May, which brought in temperatures of 39 degrees and 39.8 degrees consecutively.
Meanwhile, the Science Garden in Quezon City documented a high of 36.7 degrees Celsius in May.
The Unpredictable El Niño
Within this year, the El Niño phenomenon became a hot topic during the hot season as PAGASA continued to monitor the ups and down of sea surface temperature.
From April 21 to 28, PAGASA recorded a substantial increase in the sea surface temperature anomaly from 0.2 to 0.4 degree Celsius. It was then forecast that El Niño might reach its peak in the last quarter of 2014.
But with the recent report from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, only weak El Nino conditions were observed in November and December.
Here comes the rain!
The rainy season in the country officially started in June 10. Before declaring the onset of this season, PAGASA first made sure that the following requirements were met:
• Daily thunderstorm activity
• Prevailing southwest monsoon
• 5-day period with a total rainfall of 25 millimeters or more in three consecutive days.
Come on, Amihan!
The Amihan season was officially declared by PAGASA on October 16. The northeast monsoon or amihan is the prevailing wind system, bringing light rains to its affected areas. It also has cold and dry characteristics, resulting to colder mornings.
At this time of the year, a gradual decrease in temperatures was observed in different parts of the country.
Winter Solstice
Winter season in the northern hemisphere officially started on December 22 this year. This also signaled the start of experiencing longer nights and shorter days in the Philippines.
During the winter solstice, the northern hemisphere leans the farthest distance from the Sun, causing longer nights and lower temperatures for those in the northern hemisphere. The opposite happens in the southern hemisphere where people experience the longest day.
Related article: Winter has arrived
Although a lot has happened this year, there’s more to come this 2015. So brace yourself for those inevitable storms, but remember to keep to the sunny side of the street. With all the changes the weather brings, one thing stays the same: the Filipino brand of resilience that knows no bounds.
Prior to making landfall, Seniang intensified into Tropical Storm category this morning with maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph. The storm continues to move in a west-northwest direction at 11 kph.
PAGASA Weather Forecaster Jori Loiz says Seniang hit Baranggay Bakulin in Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur at 3:45 am today. The storm will move towards Agusan del Norte before traversing Bohol Sea, he added.
As it continues to cross the archipelago, more provinces in Visayas and Mindanao are placed under Public Storm Warning Signals:
Areas under Signal #2 will experience stormy weather whereas rains with gusty winds will be felt over the provinces under signal #1. Residents living near low-lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Meanwhile, Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos Regions, as well as Central Luzon, can expect cloudy skies with light rains. Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will be partly cloudy to at times cloudy with isolated light rains.
PAGASA has also released gale warnings over the eastern seaboards of Luzon and Visayas, where rough to very rough sea conditions are expected due to the surge of the northeast monsoon and tropical storm Seniang. The latest weather bulletin also shows the possibility of ocean waves reaching up to 5 meters, making sea travel very risky also in the northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao.
Residents of Palawan will be experiencing a stormy new year. Loiz states if the storm maintains its current speed and direction, it will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by January 1 or 2.
Christmas is about gift-giving and celebrating with families and friends. This year, aside from the parties and presents, we must also prepare our emergency kit and rainy day essentials as #NinaPH threatens to affect the country.
According to the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), an average number of 1 or 2 tropical cyclones enter the PAR during the month of December. PAGASA added that these cyclones have a higher chance of hitting the landmass during ber months due to the effect of the northeast monsoon or amihan that directs the cyclones towards the country–which means that our holidays may be as merry as they are stormy. Take a look at some of the tropical cyclones that dropped by our country during the holiday season in the last few decades.
DINANG
This tropical cyclone started as a cloud cluster spotted in Guam, which later developed into a tropical cyclone on the 22nd of December, 1981. From a tropical depression, it was named “Dinang” as it intensified into a tropical storm. Dinang initially moved west-northwest but changed its course to a westward direction due to the influence of a ridge of a high pressure area.
Dinang gained strength and intensified into a typhoon with maximum sustained winds that reached 185 kilometers per hour. It lashed the northern tip of Samar on Christmas Eve. It crossed the southern portion of Bicol Region, through the Bondoc peninsula, Marinduque and Mindoro. Dinang was located at 120 kilometers south of Metro Manila on December 26, which, according to PAGASA was its closest distance from the country’s capital.
It then moved towards the South China Sea, and after 48 hours of reaching its peak intensity, it weakened and dissipated.
By virtue of the Proclamation No. 2150, a state of public calamity in the provinces of Northern Samar, Masbate, Oriental Mindoro and Romblon was declared due to the damage brought by Dinang.
APIANG
Apiang became a tropical storm in the afternoon of December 23, 1988. It threatened Bicol, Quezon, Aurora, Quirino, Isabela and Cagayan. However, other weather systems weakend and slowed it down. PAGASA noted its clockwise loop on December 25, and was downgraded into a tropical depression. By the morning of December 26, Apiang already dissipated.
PURING
This cyclone crossed the PAR from the 23rd up to the 29th of December in 1993. Moving west-northwest, it made its way towards the Surigao-Leyte Area and passed through Bohol, Cebu, Negros, Panay and the Calamian Group of Islands.
Signal 3 was hoisted over Surigao Provinces, Dinagat Island, Agusan Del Norte, Camiguin Island, Southern Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, Siquijor, Negros, Panay and Northern Palawan. Signal Number 2 was raised over Agusan Del Sur, Masbate, Misamis Provinces, Albay, Romblon, Sorsogon, Burias Island, Lanao Provinces, Davao Del Norte, Davao Oriental, Bukidnon, Zamboanga Del Norte, the rest of Palawan, Mindoro and the rest of Visayas. Metro Manila, Bataan, the rest of Southern Luzon, Lubang Island and the rest of Mindanao were put under Signal Number 1.
157 people were recorded dead while 276 were injured.
Typhoon Puring was the 32nd tropical storm that hit the country in 1993. This was a record-breaking season because normally, an average of only 19 to 20 tropical cyclones enters the PAR each year.
TRINING
On December 25, 1995, Trining formed into a tropical depression in the South Philippine Sea. It moved eastward close to the Southern Leyte – Surigao del Norte area but later changed course. Moving northeast, it exited the PAR through the northern part of the Philippine Sea.
ZIGZAG
From an active low pressure area (LPA) spotted east of Bicol, Zigzag developed into a tropical depression on Christmas morning in 2003. While moving westward, it slowed down in the evening of the 26th. Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 was raised over the Bicol Region, Samar, Leyte, Biliran, Bohol, Cebu, Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Surigao Provinces, Agusan del Norte and Camiguin. Zigzag moved towards Visayas, crossing the southern part of Samar and Leyte. After hitting the land, it weakened into a low pressure area in the morning of December 28.
QUINTA
As a low pressure area, this weather disturbance moved over the east of Northern Mindanao where it developed into a tropical depression on December 25, 2012. Quinta intensified into a Tropical Storm and was given an international name Wukong, which means a famous hero in a Chinese Story.
Nearing the landmass, Signal number 2 was declared over Eastern Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Dinagat Province, Siargao Island, Western Samar, Cebu, Camotes Island, Bohol, Biliran, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Island, Sorsogon, Masbate, Ticao and the northern part of Negros Oriental.
Meanwhile, Signal number 1 was raised over Occidental & Oriental Mindoro, Northern Palawan, Calamian Group of Islands, Cuyo Island, Marinduque, Romblon, Lubang Island, Aklan, Capiz, Antique, Iloilo, the rest of Negros Oriental, Guimaras, Camiguin, Siquijor, Burias Island, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur and Misamis Oriental.
Quinta crossed the region of Visayas where it made its landfall 7 times.
1st landfall: Eastern Samar
2nd landfall: Albuyog, Leyte
3rd – 5th landfall: Poro Island, Pacijan and Catmon (all in Cebu Province)
6th landfall: Northern part of Roxas
7th landfall: Coron, Palawan
After its series of landfalls, Quinta finally weakened into a tropical depression before it headed to Palawan. It moved towards the West Philippine Sea and further weakened due to the cold air intrusion from the amihan over the west of Palawan.
In a Situational Report of the NDRRMC dated on December 31, 2012, 44 incidents were monitored: two maritime incidents in Regions IV-A, IV-B, V and VIII; one drowing incident in Region V; one missing person and two falling tree incidents in Region VIII; one capsized banca in CARAGA; and thirty-three flooding incidents in Regions V, VI and VIII.
More than 50 thousand families were affected in Regions IV-B, V, VI, VII and VIII. Twenty people were reported dead, three were injured and four were missing. Quinta damaged more than 5 thousand houses in Regions VI, VII and VIII. Cost of damage amounted to more than 200 million pesos in infrastructure and agriculture.
Quinta’s intensity has brought storm surge over Cebu, Borongan City and Merida, Leyte on December 26, 2012 in which 2 casualties were recorded by the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH).
Preparation in the midst of Celebration
The tropical cyclones mentioned above are proof that the Yuletide Season does not equate to fair weather— so preparation should always be a part of any celebration. This way, even if Christmas comes in a stormy package, you’ll still be able to enjoy it by staying safe and secure.
Sources:
PAGASA-DOST | NDRRMC | http://blog.noah.dost.gov.ph/2014/02/04/compilation-of-storm-surge-occurrences-in-the-philippines/ | http://www.gov.ph/1981/12/29/proclamation-no-2150-s-1981/
As Ruby makes its way outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), a new low pressure area (LPA) is being monitored by PAGASA. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Jun Galang, the LPA was located at 1,500 kilometers east-southeast of Mindanao. Based on available data, the LPA has a slim chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. It is expected to enter PAR on Friday, Galang added.
Today, areas in Northern Luzon, particularly Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos Region will experience cold weather with light rains due to the northeast mosoon or hanging amihan.
With the continuous surge of the amihan, PAGASA issued a gale warning over the seaboards of Northern Luzon and along the western seaboard of Central Luzon. This includes Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Cagayan, Isabela, Ilocos Provinces, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales and Bataan. Due to strong to gale force winds, rough to very rough sea conditions are expected in the said areas.
Meanwhile, weather in Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao is expected to improve. Only isolated rains and thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon or evening.
Lowest Temperature dropped to 15 degree Celsius
Because the amihan is the prevailing wind system in the country, this results to cold weather especially in areas situated in Northern Luzon.
According to PAGASA, the amihan usually peaks in the month of January or February. The temperatures below will gradually decrease in the coming days.
