It’s the fourth month of the year, and we are now feeling the scorching heat! But this is just an introduction to what we can expect, weather-wise, this April.

Rainfall
With the prevailing El Niño, dry days are definitely not over yet. Most parts of the country may still experience below-normal rainfall this month. While some parts of Mindanao may receive a slightly improved amount of precipitation, Visayas and almost the entire Luzon will only have a 41 to 80% chance of rain.

Temperature
Warm and humid weather is expected to continue. Thus, temperatures will continue to rise along with the heat index. Also called “human discomfort index”, the heat index determines how our body perceives the warm weather. Obtained when relative humidity is added to the air temperature, the heat index is around 3 degrees Celsius higher than the air temperature.

Here are the average temperatures in the key cities of the Philippines:

Weather Systems
Several weather systems will prevail in the Philippine boundary, including the Ridge or the extended part of a High Pressure Area (HPA.) This will bring good weather because unlike a Low Pressure Area (LPA), HPA produces fewer clouds, bringing less chances of rain.

Easterlies, on the other hand, will dominantly affect the eastern section of the country, bringing warm and humid weather to the affected areas. However, since heat is a major ingredient for cloud formation, Easterlies may also generate isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon or evening.

The Tail end of a Cold Front may also extend over the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). This refers to the extended part of a frontal system, which is the boundary or meeting point of two air masses wherein the cold air dominates the warm.

Another converging system, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), can also oscillate or move towards our boundary. ITCZ is a breeding ground of weather disturbances. Hence, formation of Low Pressure Areas and Tropical Cyclones is still possible.

Cyclones
PAGASA says that despite the blazing heat, an average of 0 or 1 tropical cyclone may enter or develop within the PAR. Last year, we monitored a cyclone on April 1 to 5, 2015. Tropical cyclone “Chedeng” dumped rains and brought strong winds in the eastern section of Luzon.

Chedeng weakened into a Low Pressure Area after making landfall in the Isabela area. Its passage within our boundary coincided with the observance of Holy Week last year.

Astronomy
Meteor lovers will have a dazzling April due to the Lyrids meteor shower! If good weather permits, a dozen meteors per hour await sky watchers. Its peak will be on April 22 to the early hours (predawn) of April 23 this year. Though it may not create an abundant display, lyrids are considered to be bright and fast meteors.

The figure below shows the position of the radiant of the meteor shower at the constellation Lyra, the Lyre.

Formerly Bagyong Chedeng, now a Low Pressure Area, is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility today before dissipating.

From an almost supertyphoon intensity, Chedeng weakened as it moved closer to the archipelago due to cold air intrusion and strong vertical wind shear, both factors hindering the retention of the cyclone’s strength.

Added to this is land interaction. When Chedeng’s center hit Dinapigue, Isabela, 8 in the morning of April 5, it gradually became a LPA.

Now estimated at 215 kms. northwest of Laoag, Ilocos Norte, the LPA will bring cloudy skies and rains over the regions of Cordillera, Ilocos and Cagayan Valley. Metro Manila, and the remaining parts of the country, on the other hand will experience a fair weathered Monday, apart from isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, a new tropical cyclone is spotted outside the PAR. A tropical storm category, this cyclone has an international name of Haishen. PAGASA estimates the cyclone at 2,560 kms. east of Mindanao.

Weather forecaster Glaiza Escullar says this cyclone is too far to affect the country and is actually expected to weaken in the following hours. Therefore, Pinoys do not have to worry about Haishen entering our area of responsibility in the following days.

By: Jesy Basco

Tropical Storm Chedeng has weakened into a low pressure area (LPA). The state weather bureau PAGASA has issued its final severe weather bulletin at 5 pm today, stating the LPA was located 60 kilometers southeast of Laoag City or in the vicinity of Kabugao, Apayao. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Gener Quitlong, the said weather disturbance is forecast to exit the landmass of Ilocos Norte tomorrow early morning and exit PAR by Tuesday. The LPA has a slim chance to intensify into tropical cyclone, Quitlong added.

All Public Storm Warning Signals are now lifted.

Due to its extended cloud bonds, light to moderate rains are expected in the Northern and Central Luzon including Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos.

Small sea vessels are still alerted against moderate to rough seas over the seaboards of Northern Luzon, including the coastal areas of Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Ilocos Norte, Cagayan, Isabela, Ilocos Sur, La Union and Pangasinan.

Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the rest of the country will experience generally good weather aside from partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms.

Another tropical cyclone

Another tropical cyclone is being monitored by PAGASA. Located at 2,700 kilometers east of Mindanao, tropical depression “Haishen” (international name) has a maximum sustained winds of 55 kph.
Quitlong said, TD “Haishen” is forecast to dissipate within 24 to 48 hours and brings no threat to any part of the country.

UPDATED AS OF 8:56AM (PST) — Originally 10 kph shy of being a Super Typhoon by PAGASA standards, Chedeng further weakened to tropical depression category this morning.

From the original 215 kph wind strength, it now packs only 55 kph near the center, allowing PAGASA to lower Public Storm Warning Signals (PSWS) except in the provinces of Isabela, Aurora, Quirino and Polillo Island, which are still under PSWS #1 today. These areas will have occasional rains with gusty winds within at least 36 hours.

Aside from being downgraded into a tropical depression, Chedeng also remained stationary. In fact, PAGASA states it is expected to remain almost stationary in the next 6 hours.

State Meteorologist Samuel Duran says as of 8 o’clock this morning, Chedeng has already made landfall in the vicinity of Dinapigue, Isable. With unfavorable conditions, now including land interaction, Chedeng has a high chance of weakening into a Low Pressure Area instead of hitting the land.

The constant factors of its continued weakening and becoming almost stationary include two High Pressure Areas north and west of the country, as well as a strong vertical wind shear. These made the cyclone unable to retain and gain moisture to sustain its strength and continue its projected track.

With this, the threat of storm surge is removed. However, gale warning is up over the northern seaboards of Luzon. and the eastern seaboards of Northern and Southern Luzon as Chedeng will still generate rough to very rough sea conditions. Fisherfolk, especially in small seacraft, are then advised not to venture out due to risky sea travel especially.

EASTER SUNDAY WEATHER

Today, areas under PSWS #1 will experience occasional rains and gusty winds due to Chedeng. The Bicol Region and Samar provinces can expect a rainy Sunday as Metro Manila and the remaining parts of the country may experience a fair weather condition.

Everyone is advised to bring umbrellas for sun protection and possible thunderstorms later in the day. Also, continue monitoring weather updates thru Panahon TV social media accounts.

Despite the cyclone’s weakening, PAGASA reminds the public to brace itself for the possible effects of Typhoon Chedeng this weekend.

At 4 PM today, the eye of the typhoon was estimated at 845 kms. east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora. Packing winds of 140 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 170 kph, Chedeng maintains its typhoon category. However, PAGASA claims it has a higher chance of further weakening as it moves closer to the archipelago. State Meteorologist Aldczar Aurelio says there is a possibility that Chedeng may be downgraded to tropical storm category before hitting the landmass.

One such factor of the typhoon’s weakening is the strong vertical wind shear or the wind strength along the cyclone. Aurelio likened it to a humming top or ‘trumpo’ where winds differ in the bottom and top areas of the cyclone. Chedeng may also weaken due to land interaction, especially in mountainous areas that may help break the cyclone’s wind formation.

In the latest run of the various weather forecasting models of the weather bureau, here’s what we can expect:

April 5 – Sunday
Morning: Chedeng to make landfall over the Aurora-Isabela area.
Evening: Chedeng to leave the landmass via Ilocos Sur.

April 6 – Monday
Morning: Chedeng to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

Based on PAGASA’s latest weather bulletin, Public Storm Warning Signal number 1 is raised over Isabela, Aurora, Quezon including Polillo Island, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte and Camarines Sur.

These areas may still be experiencing good weather conditions now, but the effects of Chedeng may be felt in at least 36 hours, or in a day and a half.

PAGASA also mentions the possibility of hoisting the same warning signal over Cagayan, Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya and the Cordillera Administrative Region in the next 12 hours as Chedeng moves closer to Eastern Luzon.

In a press briefing held in PAGASA this afternoon, Aurelio explains that although the country is experiencing good weather today, rains with occasional gusty winds can be expected by late Saturday, escalating to stormy weather, particularly over the Central-Northern Luzon area come Sunday.

In the Greater Metro Manila Area, there is a poor chance of having a storm warning signal raised. However, expect occasional rains and gusty winds as Chedeng crosses the land. The remaining parts of the country, on the other hand, can expect warm and humid weather, Aurelio added.

As Chedeng threatens the country, officials remind the residents living in areas under signal #1 to be prepared against possible flash floods and landslides. Storm surges of up to 2 metes are also possible over the eastern coast of Aurora, Quezon and Isabela. Even fisherfolk over the eastern seaboard of Bicol Region and Visayas are advised against sea travel due to the rough to very rough sea conditions generated by Chedeng.