We’ve just entered the last month of summer vacation! For some, this is the perfect time to indulge in their “huling hirit sa tag-init” fashion, selfies, playlist and memories. So, wherever you plan to spend the rest of your vacation, make sure to enjoy every moment with your family and friends.

In the midst of the Hot and Dry Season, several areas are recently experiencing rains. Weather-wise, you probably have few questions in mind. Fret not; we’ve already prepared the answers!

Are we expecting a “bagyo” this month?

According to PAGASA, different weather systems normally affect the country during this month. These include the Easterlies, Ridge of High Pressure Area (HPA), Tail End of a Cold Front, Intertropical Convergence Zone, Low Pressure Area (LPA) and Tropical Cyclone.

Despite the ongoing tag-init, the weather bureau is not dismissing the possibility of a tropical cyclone to enter or develop within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this May. An average of 0 to 1 tropical cyclone is expected with its two possible scenarios: 1) a chance of hitting the landmass or 2) re-curving away from the country, depending on the effect of the HPA.

According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Robert Badrina, historical records in the past 70 years show that tropical cyclones which entered the PAR during May were under Typhoon category. Hence, stronger typhoons usually cross our boundary during this month. The most recent one, Typhoon “Dodong”, entered the PAR on the second week of May last year.

How long will tag-init last?

Hot days are not over yet! PAGASA says tag-init normally lasts until the end of May. Air temperatures and heat indices will continue to soar as the Easterlies and Ridge of HPA prevail within the boundary.

Easterlies are warm and humid winds coming from the Pacific Ocean. This weather system is the main reason why we feel the sweltering heat.

In fact, the highest temperatures in Philippine history were recorded during the month of May.

After a scorching day, why do we experience thunderstorms?

May is considered as “thunderstorm month” because this is the time of the year wherein thunderstorms develop more frequently. As temperatures rise, water cycle also speeds up and becomes more active. This triggers the formation of cumulonimbus clouds, also known as thunderstorm clouds, which bring moderate to heavy rains, gusty winds, along with thunder and lightning.

Expect more thunderstorms in the coming days as we approach the transition period before the rainy season.

How’s El Niño?

PAGASA explains that the El Niño is already in its decaying stage. It will continue to weaken further this May until July, where it is expected to return to its neutral condition.

Though some areas will receive an improved amount of rainfall, several areas should still prepare for the last wave of El Niño. Dry conditions, dry spells and droughts could still affect the country in the next few weeks.

Good News came early this morning as PAGASA announced that “Dodong” has already exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at 1:00 AM today. At 4:00 AM, it was spotted at 830 kilometers northeast of Basco, Batanes. Compared to previous days, it has weakened with maximum sustained winds of 110 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 140 kilometers per hour. Moving northeast, Dodong has accelerated to 45 kilometers per hour towards the southern part of Japan.

Now that Dodong is out of the PAR, easterlies or winds coming from the Pacific Ocean, will prevail, affecting the eastern section of the country. Due to its warm and humid characteristics, this wind system will bring hot weather in most parts of the county.

The whole archipelago is expected to have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with chances of isolated rain showers or thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening. PAGASA has also terminated the gale warning, thus, slight to moderate sea condition will prevail throughout the country.

Meanwhile, another tropical storm is now being monitored outside the PAR. With the international name “Dolphin,” it is now classified as a tropical storm. At approximately 3,000 kilometers east of Mindanao, PAGASA Weather Forecaster Alvin Pura said it is still too far to directly affect the Philippines. However, if it maintains its velocity, Dolphin will possibly enter our boundary by the weekend.

Since one typhoon has already entered the PAR during the early part of the month, Pura said that it is normal for another storm to enter the boundary because the average number of tropical cyclones during May is 1 to 2.

Pura added that as of now, there is a slim chance for Dolphin to engage in landfall activity, and it has higher chance of recurvature. All are advised to monitor updates and further development.

At 8:00 AM today, Dodong was located over Basco, Batanes. Moving north at 19 kilometers per hour, it packs winds of 160 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 195 kilometers per hour. If Dodong maintains velocity, it will possibly exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow morning. PAGASA Weather Forecaster Manny Mendoza said it is expected to move towards the southern islands of Japan.

Some areas in Luzon are still under the Public Storm Warning Signals of PAGASA:

For today’s forecast, stormy weather will prevail over Batanes, Calayan and the Babuyan Group of Islands while Cagayan, Apayao and Ilocos Norte will experience rains with gusty winds. The rest of Northern Luzon will have cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, generally fair weather is expected over Metro Manila and the rest of the country, but all are still advised to be prepared for isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

As Dodong moves within the boundary, strong to gale force winds associated with the typhoon will trigger rough to very rough sea conditions over the eastern seaboard of Northern and Central Luzon. With wave height ranging from 3.4 to 4.5 meters, sea travel is risky for fishing boats and other small seacraft.

On the other hand, another tropical cyclone was spotted and now being monitored outside the PAR. Named as Tropical Storm ‘Dolphin,” it is still too far to affect the country. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Samuel Duran, it was located at approximately 3,000 kilometers east of Mindanao. If Dolphin maintains its movement, it will possibly move closer towards our boundary by next week. However, due to its distance, changes may still occur in the following days. The public is advised to continuously monitor updates and further development.

Lashing with heavy winds and moderate to intense rains, Dodong’s eye passed over Pananapan Point in Sta. Ana, Cagayan 4:45 this afternoon.

The typhoon made landfall, bearing maximum sustained winds of 185 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 220 kph. Once it made contact with the land, it slowed down a bit, moving north northwest at 17 kph.

Based on PAGASA’s latest weather bulletin issued at 5 o’clock in the afternoon, here are the areas under public storm warning signals:

In a press briefing held late afternoon in PAGASA, State Meteorologist Aldczar Aurelio said that after Cagayan, Dodong will head towards the Batanes area in the following hours.

If it maintains its current speed and direction, the typhoon is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Tuesday morning and will continue to move towards Southern Japan.

As for the expected weather conditions in the country tonight, the areas under signal #4 will continue to experience a stormy weather due to the typhoon. The provinces under signal #3 can expect rains with gusty winds. On the other hand, areas under signal #1 and #2 will have light to moderate rain showers. The rest of the country can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with localized thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, PAGASA releases a new gale warning over the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon. These coastal areas will experience strong to gale force winds and rough to very rough sea conditions generated by Typhoon Dodong. All fishermen are advised against sea travel in the following hours.

In other news, the Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) released an advisory today pertaining to the highly susceptible barangays in Sta. Ana, Baggao and Gonzaga in Cagayan.

Here is the list:

Typhoon (TY) Dodong has further intensified, threatening Isabela-Cagayan Area. At 7 AM today, the center of the weather disturbance was located 140 kms. northeast of Casiguran, Aurora, packing maximum sustained winds of 170 kph near the center and gustiness of 205 kph moving northwest at 17 kph.
According to PAGASA Weather Forecast Chris Perez, Dodong is expected to make its landfall before or during noontime at the Isabela-Cagayan area.
TY Dodong is expected to be outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday.

Public Storm Warning Signals are now being raised over 18 areas

PAGASA reiterates possible storm surge occurrences in areas under signasl no. 3 and 2. Ocean wave height will range from 4.1 to 14 meters.

Meanwhile, light to moderate rains and thunderstorms are expected over Bicol region, the rest of Central Luzon and Ilocos region.

Metro Manila and the rest of the country will have fair weather apart from isolated rains or thunderstorms in the afternoon or evening.

Gale Warning: All types of sea vessels

All types of sea vessels are not allowed to venture out into the sea. Rough to very rough sea condition is expected due to typhoon Dodong.

Typhoon Dodong has slowed down while maintaining its strength. According to the latest severe weather bulletin of PAGASA, at 10 AM, Dodong was spotted at 210 kilometers northeast of Virac, Catanduanes packing maximum sustained winds of 160 kph near the center and gustiness of 195 kph. Dodong continues to move west-northwest at a speed of 20 kph.

PAGASA Weather Forecaster Samuel Duran said that Dodong is expected to make landfall tomorrow early morning at Isabela, Cagayan area. Anticipate heavy to intense rains within the 200-kilometer diameter of the typhoon.

On Monday next week, Dodong will be on its way out moving towards Japan.

Public Storm Warning Signals

Aside from the areas under signals no. 1,2 and 3 light to moderate rains are expected over Metro Manila, the rest of Central Luzon, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon and the rest of Visayas.
The rest of the country will have fair weather apart from isolated rains or thunderstorms in the afternoon or evening.

Storm Surges
PAGASA said that there are possible occurrences of storm surges over the areas under Signal no. 3 and 2. Wave height may reach from 4.1 to 14 meters.

All sea vessels are not allowed to venture out into the sea especially on the eastern seaboards of Luzon and Visayas.

PAGASA raised public storm warning signal #1 in Luzon and Visayas today as Typhoon Dodong continues to move closer to the Philippine landmass.

These areas will experience winds of up to 30 to 60 kph in at least a day and a half. Winds this strong may pose light damage to medium to low risk structures, and slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures.

State Meteorologist Alvin Pura added that Metro Manila may not be included in the signal warning this weekend unless Dodong’s track goes lower than expected.

The typhoon currently packs 150 kph maximum sustained winds near the center and gustiness of up to 185 kph. Pura said though there is a possibility of further intensification in the following hours, Dodong will not reach Super Typhoon status. However, once it hits land, a decrease in wind strength is expected before exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The cyclone also slowed down a bit this morning, still moving west northwest now at 17 kph.

In the current forecast track, Pura states that Dodong is expected to move nearer to Bicol Region within 24 hours. It will also skirt the eastern section of Central Luzon before making landfall over the Isabela-Cagayan area Sunday morning. If it maintains its current speed and direction, the typhoon is expected to exit PAR late Monday or early Tuesday.

As for the weather today, based on PAGASA’s latest weather forecast, the areas under Signal #1 will experience rains with gusty winds. On the other hand, a rainy weather condition will also be experienced in Central Visayas, the rest of Eastern Visayas, and over the regions of CARAGA, Davao and Northern Mindanao. The rest of the country including will Metro Manila can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorm in the following hours.

Meanwhile, areas in the northern Luzon area currently experiencing dry spell will benefit from the rains the typhoon will bring. However, once Dodong passes, the area will continue to experience high temperatures.

Typhoon Noul has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility at 4 AM today and is now called locally as “Dodong.”

With PAGASA’s hourly updates, Dodong was last estimated at 925 kms. east northeast of Surigao City 10 o’clock this morning.

Entering PAR under Typhoon category, Dodong slightly intensified within a couple of hours, now packing maximum sustained winds of 140 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 170 kph. It continues to move in a west northwest direction at 17 kph.

In a press conference held today in PAGASA, Acting Administrator Dr. Vicente Malano said that Dodong may further intensify in the following hours but may not reach Super Typhoon status.

The consensus forecast from different global models also show Dodong is more likely to hit the northeastern part of Luzon before recurving.

In the current forecast track, the typhoon is expected to pass close to the Bicol Region and Samar provinces Saturday morning. If it maintains its current speed and direction, it is expected to hit Isabela-Cagayan area by Sunday.

No public storm warning signal is raised yet as Dodong is still far to affect the country. However, according to Weather Forecaster Chris Perez, the bureau may raise signals later today or tomorrow. The typhoon is expected to dump rains in a big area of Luzon as it moves closer to our landmass in the following days. Metro Manila might also be put under Signal #1, Perez said.

Meanwhile, Perez provided historical climatic data on the tropical cyclones that affected the Philippines during the month of May within a 64-year range. Based on PAGASA’s Tropical Cyclone Guidance System, 70 tropical cyclones has entered PAR during this month and are mostly in typhoon category. In the recorded tracks, majority have hit land before recurvature.

Despite the presence of Typhoon Dodong inside PAR, the archipelago will still experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with chances of localized thunderstorms excluding the regions of CARAGA and Davao, which will be affected by the trough of the typhoon, bringing light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms today.

Moving west slowly at 6 kilometers per hour, Tropical Storm Noul is still threatening to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow, Thursday. At 4:00 AM today, it was estimated at 1,395 kilometers east of Surigao del Norte. Compared to yesterday, it has gained strength with maximum sustained winds of 100 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 130 kilometers per hour. Once it enters the PAR, it will be given the local name “Dodong”, the first tropical cyclone for May and the fourth for this year.

PAGASA Weather Forecaster Jori Loiz said that two scenarios may happen. The first shows a possible landfall over the northern tip of Northern Luzon before it recurves. In the second scenario, the tropical cyclone will not hit any part of the country and will instead recurve northward, moving away from the landmass.

Loiz added that due to the slow pace of the tropical cyclone, it may start to dump rains in the country this weekend.

As Noul moves through the waters, it could still intensify due to the abundance of moisture and heat. Since the easterlies or winds coming from the Pacific Ocean are characterized by warm and humid air, these can also contribute to Noul’s intensification. All are advised to monitor updates as Noul approaches our boundary.

Today, the ridge or the extended part of a high pressure area is the dominant weather system prevailing over Luzon. Since Noul is still too far to affect the country, the whole archipelago will experience generally fair weather aside from possible isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

Sea travelers and fishing boats can safely venture out into the seaboards due to the slight to moderate sea conditions. Meanwhile, temperatures remain high–Metro Manila will experience 24 to 35 degrees Celsius while Metro Cebu can expect 25 to 32 degrees Celsius. Metro Davao has the highest range of 25 to 35 degrees Celsius.

Strong earthquake rocks Papua New Guinea

A magnitude 7.5 earthquake jolted Papua New Guinea on Tuesday. With a depth of 42 kilometers or 26.1 miles, the epicenter was located at 130 kilometers south-southwest of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea. According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), this earthquake has been preceded by a series of moderate to large quakes on this portion of the plate boundary over the past weeks.

These events began with a magnitude 7.5 on March 29, 2015, 110 kilometers to the northeast of the May 5, 2015 earthquake. Between the two powerful quakes, 25 other earthquakes of magnitude 5 and up have occurred in the same area. These include the magnitude 6.7 and magnitude 6.8 on April 30 and May 1 respectively.

The earthquake yesterday generated a small tsunami near the epicenter, which affected the power lines, and cracked walls of some establishments. However, no widespread damage was reported. The Geohpysical Observatory of Port Moresby said the tsunami did not rise beyond the normal level of high tide.

Meanwhile, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) issued its tsunami information: