drought – PanahonTV

By Amor Larrosa and Desserie Dionio, Panahon TV Reporters

Gunshots echoed as protesters hurled stones against the police. Blasts of water cannons were directed toward rallyists, who ran for their lives amidst deafening screams. According to reports, such was the scene that unfolded in Kidapawan in Cotabato that took the media by storm on the first day of April – an incident that would later be tagged by others as “Bigas, Hindi Bala.”

On March 29, 500 El Niño-stricken farmers and agricultural workers staged a rally in front of the National Food Authority (NFA) in Kidapawan City to ask the government for rice rations and aid after the El Niño had dried up their crops, leaving them penniless, in debt and hungry.

The local government agreed to talk to the farmers, but on March 30, their numbers rose to 6,000, allowing them to occupy the highway. A couple of days later, the event led to a violent dispersal, killing two farmers and one civilian, with more than a hundred protesters and members of the police wounded, and 80 farmers missing.

TWO SIDES OF THE COIN
Last April 7, the Senate Committee on Justice and Human Rights held a hearing in Davao City as some of farmers who were still recovering from injuries could not travel to Manila.

During the session, a farmer named Arlyn Oti Aman recalled how she, along with colleagues, were treated violently. “We went here to ask for food, but they looked upon us as like dogs, like animals.”

Meanwhile, the Philippine National Police (PNP) claimed that they have proof that the demonstrators initiated the violence. North Cotabato Chief Police Senior Supt. Alexander Tagum said that maximum tolerance was implemented during the outbreak of violence. He also showed an aerial video of the incident showing that cops were not raising their batons.

There are always two sides to every story, but what’s certain is that one of the factors that sparked the Kidapawan violence is the El Niño. This phenomenon aggravated the Dry Season in Mindanao, threatening food security.

WHAT IS EL NIÑO?
El Niño is characterized by the unusual warming of the ocean or the unusual rise in sea surface temperature (SST). According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the term El Niño was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America as the appearance of uncommon warm water in the Pacific Ocean.

“El Niño” is also a Spanish term meaning “Little Boy” or “Christ child” because this phenomenon usually arrives around Christmas.

WARNING
As early as 2014, PAGASA warned the public about the possible threat of El Niño, which was expected to bring below-normal rainfall patterns and higher air temperatures. Though the average number of tropical cyclones could still be normal, PAGASA stated that the El Niño could affect the cyclones’ movement and intensity, causing them to be stronger and more erratic.

EL NIÑO SETS IN
On March 11, 2015, PAGASA confirmed the ongoing El Niño in a press statement.

In the same month, the Dry Spell started to affect farmlands and water sources in Kidapawan City. The veterinary office in the city also reported deaths of hogs and cows because of the severe heat. The city office also received reports that some farm animals had weakened, possibly due to heat stroke.

After enduring the effects of El Niño for months, North Cotabato was placed under a state of calamity on January 2016. Thousands of hectares of farmlands and millions of crops like rice, corn, cacao, and other high-value crops were affected.

MINDANAO’S WEATHER
Provinces that are vulnerable to the effects of El Niño are mostly in Mindanao, mainly because of its location. According to PAGASA-Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS) Chief Mr. Anthony Lucero, areas which are at the nearest distance from the equator normally experience the highest temperatures and least precipitation.

“Kapag kasi may El Niño, nagkakaroon ng reversal of winds—5 degrees north and 5 degrees south of equator. Humihina ‘yung effect ng Easterlies pagdating sa part na ‘yun. So walang moisture, wala ring ulan,” Lucero said.

This April, North Cotabato remains to be on the list of areas that are more likely to experience drought. Drought is defined by three consecutive months of way-below normal rainfall condition, wherein the average rainfall is reduced by 60%.

WERE WE PREPARED FOR EL NIÑO?
In the Senate Committee hearing, Cotabato Governor Emmylou Taliño Mendoza stressed that the provincial government took El Niño-mitigating measures after being warned by PAGASA.

Meanwhile, the Department of Agriculture (DA) Secretary Proceso Alcala belied reports that farmers in Mindanao have become hungry because of the government’s failure to prepare for El Niño. According to Alcala, when PAGASA declared a mild El Niño, the DA immediately provided P2.666 billion worth of mitigation assistance as early as 2015. He also said that P979.9 million worth of assistance was released from January to March 2016, including the provision of water pumps.

According to Alcala, DA’s projection of palay harvest loss due to El Niño for 2016 to date is 970,000 metric tons; “But the actual loss was 203,000 metric tons, meaning that the government has implemented the necessary interventions.”

From April to July this year, DA targets to distribute a total of 89,260 bags of rice varieties and seeds; 80,000 kilograms of soil ameliorant/zinc sulphate; and 5,000 bags of organic fertilizer for distribution to affected farmers.

As early as January, Pasig City Representative Roman Romulo called for the administration to disclose how it intended to spend the multimillion-peso budget for El Niño mitigation.

Likewise, in his statement during the hearing, Majority Floor Leader Alan Peter Cayetano condemned the administration for its failure to immediately release funds to mitigate the effects of El Niño.

“Enough of excuses and lies: we actually have P45 billion worth of funds in 2016 that may be used for the projects that will curb the impact of this crisis. If the Palace wanted to resolve this, they can… why are there so many farmers who are still starving and facing poverty?” said Cayetano.

EL NIÑO AND CLIMATE CHANGE
In an interview with the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), Atty. Gia Ibay said climate change does not cause El Niño, but the frequency of El Niño occurrence may be linked to it.

Lucero affirms this, saying it is a common misconception that El Niño is caused by climate change. He added that though El Niño is a natural occurrence, climate change may worsen its effects.

“Sa nakikita natin in the recent years, dumadami at dumadalas ang pagkakaroon ng disasters dahil sa climate change – kasama dun ‘yung drought. Ang climate change, connected sa pagtaas ng temperatura ng mundo. So kapag nagkaroon ng El Niño, lumalala ang effect. Mas mainit at lalong nagkukulang sa ulan,” Lucero explained.

According to Lucero, the current El Niño is still categorized as “strong” but is expected to weaken in the next few months. Probably by the end of July, our country may experience a “neutral” climatic condition.

AWARENESS + PREPAREDNESS
To date, the PNP has started its own inquiry on the Kidapawan dispersal, but there are calls for the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) to conduct a parallel probe to ensure an impartial and independent investigation.

Meanwhile, in Senator Loren Legarda’s press release, she said that this incident would not have happened if necessary interventions addressed the impact of El Niño on farmers and communities.

“…the government can no longer deny the link between climate change and development. What we saw is just one of the human faces of climate change and our farmers, who did not cause this phenomenon, is among the direct victims of its impacts,” Legarda stated.

With the increasing frequency of El Niño and extreme weather events, it is evident that we are already facing a serious challenge. We have all been warned about the development of an El Niño phenomenon, but awareness is not enough without preparedness. It is the state’s responsibility to see to it that measures are effectively carried out from planning to implementation, making sure that the very backbone of the country’s food security—the farmers—benefit from them.

REFERENCES:

http://davaotoday.com/main/human-rights/we-were-treated-like-animals-woman-tells-senate-hearing-on-kidapawan-carnage/

http://news.pia.gov.ph/article/view/1541460006387/senate-hearing-on-violent-kidapawan-protest-held-in-davao

http://www.da.gov.ph/index.php/media-resources/news-release/2016-news-release/7456-agri-chief-belies-media-reports-that-mindanao-farmers-going-hungry-due-to-el-nino

http://www.gov.ph/2016/04/05/govt-intensifies-efforts-combat-el-nino/

https://www.senate.gov.ph/press_release/2016/0407_escudero2.asp
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
PAGASA-DOST
Greenpeace Philippines
www.mindanews.com
http://www.philstar.com/nation/2016/01/21/1544611/north-cotabato-under-state-calamity-due-el-nino
http://www.senate.gov.ph/press_release/2016/0405_legarda1.asp

PAGASA’s climate outlook shows that most parts of the Philippines will probably experience a Meteorological Drought, which, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information, occurs when dry weather patterns dominate an area. Meanwhile, Agricultural Droughts happen when crops are affected.

Because of the ongoing El Niño, the forecast rainfall for February is below-normal or between 41 to 80 percent. Based on the map below, a large part of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao will experience less rainfall. These include the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), except for Apayao where near-normal rainfall is expected.

In Region I, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur and La Union will receive above-normal rainfall. However, Pangasinan will experience a different scenario with only a 22.9 percent amount precipitation in February, which means drought is more probable in this area.

The good news: most provinces in Region II, Central Luzon, National Capital Region, Region IV-A, MIMAROPA and Bicol Region will also receive below to above-normal rainfall, thanks to the Amihan or the Northeast Monsoon and occasional Tail End of a Cold Front, bringing light to moderate rains.

In Region VI, Negros Island Region, Region VII, Region VIII, Davao Region, SOCCSKSARGEN, CARAGA and ARMM, below-normal rainfall is expected, quantified between 41 to 80 percent. The Zamboanga Peninsula and Northern Mindanao are most likely to experience the effect of El Niño this month because of way-below normal rainfall or below 40 percent amount of rains. Most of these areas consist of agricultural farms, thus making it more prone to Agricultural Drought.

According to PAGASA, A Dry Spell is characterized by three consecutive months of below- normal rainfall conditions, while Droughts are defined as having three consecutive months of way below-normal rainfall conditions. In the latest climate outlook of the weather bureau, 26 provinces (31% percent of the country) are likely to experience droughts.

May last until February 2016

Lanao Del Norte in Region X reported that there are 1,216 hectares of corn, 976 hectares of high-value crops and 694 hectares of rice affected by the Dry Condition. Meanwhile, 22 municipalities of Bukidnon are also suffering from the effect of El Niño, with 31,750 hectares of corn, 1,705 hectares of cassava and 4.0,317 hectares of rice affected by the Dry Season. Maguindanao in ARMM is now placed under a State of Calamity, where more than 20,000 farmers and 17,000 hectares of rice and corn are affected.

The Department of Agriculture (DA) is focusing on providing mitigation programs especially to areas severely affected by the El Niño. Cloud seeding, the process of scattering silver iodide aerosols or dry ice into clouds containing supercooled water to induce rain, is done to abate water scarcity.

The DA is also awaiting the release of a P900 million budget to fast-track the agency’s interventions.

With the unfavorable effects of El Niño, farmers are assured that they can rely on DA. The agency is accepting concerns and inquiries through its DA El Niño Hotline and PhilRice Text Center.

This year, severe weather events impacted several regions around the
world—proof of the ever-growing threat of Climate Change. Fittingly enough, it was also this year when nation leaders gathered in Paris to finalize sustainable programs that will mitigate the effects of Climate Change.

Let’s review some of the notable extreme weather events that happened all over the world.

1. Deadly Heat Wave

The heat wave in India broke headlines as the death toll climbed to more than 2,300 in the most affected states— Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

Data from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed the intensity of the heat wave. In May, a scorching 43 degrees Celsius was recorded, enough to melt the pavement in New Delhi. The heat wave was observed for five consecutive days, and was considered to be the decade’s worst. It was also declared as the 5th deadliest heat wave in world history by the Indian Meteorological Department.

In June, a blistering 49 degrees Celsius was recorded in Pakistan, causing 2,000 casualties. Hot weather is a normal phenomenon in Pakistan during thesummer, but what made it worse was the power interruption that prevented people to seek relief in electric fans and air conditioning.

2. Worst Drought

According to NOAA, October 2015 was the warmest October ever recorded in the 136-year period. Droughts are among the inevitable impacts of dry days or less rainfall.

In 80 years, Brazil experienced the worst drought, where parts of Amazon had dried up by 25% since the year 2000.

In Central Valley, California where 40% of the US’s fruits, nuts and vegetables

came from, farmers resorted to drilling for water. According to scientists, the amount of snow in the Sierra Nevada was at its lowest in more than 500 years last September. California Governor Jerry Brown issued mandatory water restrictions in an effort to reduce water usage by 25% percent.

3. Wildfire

In August, the state of Washington suffered from wildfire, considered to be the largest of its kind this year. Upon the declaration of a federal emergency, soldiers were called in to help the firefighters. 170 homes were destroyed.

Last November, 6,000 fires in California were documented, burning more
than 300,000 acres. Due to the intense fires in the Amador and Calavares counties, a state of emergency was declared.

On Christmas Day, more than 100 houses were eaten up by wildfire in

Australia. The blaze occurred in the Victoria State’s Great Ocean Road and according to authorities, it could continue burning for weeks.

Another story that made it to the headlines is the forest fire in Indonesia that caused a haze blanketing Southeast Asia, back in August. For months, the forest fire in Indonesia blazed, said to be caused by corporations and small-scale farmers engaging in slash-and-burn methods or kaingin.

Kalimantan (Borneo) and Western Sumatra were among the worst hit areas.

The haze reached Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Philippines.

Approximately, 500,000 cases of respiratory tract infections were reported in all the affected countries due to the air quality. In the Philippines, during the onslaught of Lando (international name Koppu), haze was reported in Zamboanga, Davao, Cotabato and Cebu.

4. Severe Flooding

In October, Hurricane Joaquin induced torrential rains that ensued
widespread flooding in South Carolina, resulting to 17 casualties. Around 400,000 people were affected by the floods.

In November, three times the average rainfall fell in Chennai in India, and in December, nearly 16 inches of rain fell within a two-day period. Known as the 5th largest city, Chennai was submerged in flood water, forcing the Chennai Airport, Southern Railway, as well as roads and highways, to close down.

Tens of thousands of people were trapped in floodwaters.

5. Earthquakes

In late April, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake shook Nepal, killing more than 9,000 people. 23,000 residents were confirmed injured, while 450,000 were displaced. Aside from the 30 historical landmarks that were totally damaged in Kathmandu Valley, thousands of buildings, houses and shrines were also destroyed.

A magnitude 8.3 earthquake struck off the coast of Chile in September.

Though no tsunami was monitored, a tsunami alert was issued for early
preparation. According to the Ministry of Chile, 20 people were injured and an estimated 1 million residents evacuated their homes.

The force of nature is inescapable; everyone is at its mercy. What we can do is to learn from these past disasters so we can better prepare for future impacts. As we mitigate the effects of Climate Change, so should we strengthen our disaster preparedness.

Sources:

http://time.com/3904590/india-heatwave-monsoon-delayed-weather-

climate-change/

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/india-heat-wave-

kills-thousands

http://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/08/21/extreme-weather-

events-of-2015-is-climate-change-to-blame/

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-33236067

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/27/us-natural-disasters-

extreme-weather-west-coast-wildfires-boston-snow-texas-south-carolina-

floods

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/top-five-viral-weather-

stories-of-2015-year-in-review-el-nino/54215781

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/12/26/more-than-100-homes-

destroyed-in-australia-wildfire.html

http://www.panahon.tv/blog/2015/11/the-hazards-of-haze/

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34265922

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/06/asia/chennai-india-floods/

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/india-chennai-dry-

flooding-returns/53800847

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/17/earthquake-in-chile-

rocks-capital-santiago

http://www.washington.edu/news/2015/12/16/uw-tacoma-geoscientist-

tracked-risks-from-deadly-2015-nepal-earthquake/

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2015/11/nepal-earthquake-aftermath-

recovery

Today, Luzon, Visayas and most parts of Mindanao will have good weather conditions. Isolated rain showers are still possible but PAGASA said these rain showers would only persist in not more than two hours.

Davao region and SOCCKSARGEN will experience light to moderate rains brought by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) affecting Southern Mindanao.

El Niño more likely to continue until 2016
El Niño is an abnormal rise in sea surface temperature, resulting to drier environment and hotter days. PAGASA said this phenomenon will more likely to continue until 2016.
Here’s the updated list of provinces that will be affected by dry spells, dry condition and droughts.