While some parts of Luzon are already experiencing rains, PAGASA clarified that “tag-ulan” season has yet to begin in the country.

In a press conference held at the PAGASA Weather and Flood Forecasting Center on Wednesday afternoon, the bureau confirmed the start of the southwesterly windflow or weak habagat that brings rains in Palawan and Mindoro provinces. However, only three out of the eight monitoring stations of PAGASA under Climate Type 1 have satisfied the established criteria: a total of 25 millimeters or more of rain, with three consecutive days having at least 1 millimeter of rainfall per day.

According to PAGASA, the onset of rainy season may be declared between May 28 to June 8.

Here’s the report:

Tropical Depression “Aere” (formerly “Julian” inside the Philippine boundary), has weakened into a low pressure area (LPA). At 4:00 AM today, it was last estimated at 625 kms. west of Basco, Batanes.

Aere has no direct effect on any part of the country, but it continues to enhance the southwest monsoon, locally known as hanging habagat. This weather system will particularly affect the western section of Northern and Central Luzon.

Meanwhile, another LPA was spotted at 1,030 kms. east of Mindanao. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Samuel Duran, it may enter the PAR today and has a high chance to develop into a tropical cyclone or bagyo. If it does, it will be named “Karen”, the 11th cyclone to enter the Philippine boundary.

Today, residents of Metro Manila and the regions of CALABARZON, Cordillera, Ilocos, Central Luzon, Zamboanga Peninsula, SOCCSKSARGEN, Davao and the provinces of Occidental Mindoro and Palawan are alerted against cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and thunderstorms. The remaining parts of the country will have generally fair weather, apart from isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

Fisherfolk are advised to prepare for moderate to occasionally rough sea conditions in the northern and eastern sections of Luzon, while the rest of the country will have slight to moderate seas.

Meanwhile, Typhoon “Songda” continues to move farther away from the country. It was last seen at 2,550 kms. east northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon, with maximum sustained winds of 165 kph and gustiness of up to 205 kph. Moving north at 17 kph, PAGASA said it is no longer expected to enter the PAR due to its proximity and course.

World News: Death toll rises in Haiti

Hurricane Matthew, dubbed as the fiercest Carribean storm for almost a decade, directly hit Haiti, Tuesday last week. The powerful hurricane caused 1,000 deaths and affected more than a million people, with at least 300,000 in need of immediate assistance.

In the wake of Hurricane Matthew, health officials warned about the spread of cholera. Cholera is a bacterial infection, highly contagious in areas with contaminated water. It can cause severe diarrhea and may cause death if untreated.

Authorities are concerned about the rising cholera cases, but are keeping their focus on giving primary needs to the victims of the calamity. These include water, food, medication and shelter.

It happened on a Saturday morning. Heavy rains continued to pour as a number of cars were already floating in water. A few hours later, people were soaked in neck-deep floods, while some were stranded on roads, bridges and roofs. Rich and poor alike, survivors cried for help as they witnessed their prized belongings swept away by raging floods. Such was the scene that unfolded at the height of “Ondoy,” the worst storm to hit Metro Manila in almost four decades.

BACKGROUND

On September 24, 2009, a low-pressure area inside the Philippine boundary developed into a tropical depression and was named “Ondoy,” with the international name Ketsana. Two days later, it intensified into a tropical storm, which made landfall in the boundary of Aurora and Quezon, and crossed Central Luzon for 12 hours. On the same day, it enhanced the habagat, which brought rains concentrated in Metro Manila, Central and Southern Luzon, and some parts of Visayas and Mindanao.

source: PAGASA

At 455 millimeters, the amount of rain accumulated in Metro Manila within 24 hours surpassed the normal monthly amount in the metropolis, according to PAGASA.

IN THE WAKE OF ONDOY

“Ondoy” exited the Philippine boundary on September 27, 2009 leaving a wake of devastation

source: NDRRMC

Based on the final report of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (then the National Disaster Coordinating Council), Tropical Storm Ondoy affected 4.9 million people in the country. The enhancement of the habagat resulted to floods in 1,786 barangays in 26 provinces, and landslides in some parts of Cagayan, Pampanga and Camarines Sur. The catastrophic storm also took 464 lives, injured 529 and caused 37 unaccounted for. Damage to infrastructure and agriculture amounted to P11 billion.

LESSONS

On the seventh anniversary of the disastrous storm, we visited Marikina, one of Metro Manila’s hardest-hit areas. We asked survivors to share with us some of the lessons that the Ondoy tragedy has taught them. Here are some of their answers:

1) Preparedness is a must.

“Sobrang takot. Kapag may nagbabaha na ngayon, nagre-ready na kami. Nag-aabang na kami, baka sakaling bumaha, ay lumikas na tayo sa matataas na lugar. Alam na namin ang gagawin namin kapag andiyan na eh. Hinahanda namin ‘yung mga gamit namin. May plano na. ‘Yung kahandaan na kasi noong una, biglaan yun. Natakot din kami. Hindi namin alam ang gagawin namin.”

(It was frightening. Now, when flood occurs, we start to prepare. We monitor updates, while planning our evacuation to higher grounds. We were afraid before but now, we already know what to do.)
– REY BAYAOA, a 52-year-old shoemaker in Tumana who saved his family of six during Ondoy

“Kasi dati ang ugali namin, pateka-teka kami. Once na nagkakaroon ng bagyo, kampante ‘yung mga tao na hindi tataas ‘yung tubig o kaya, kakayanin ng bahay nila. Pero ngayon, kapag sinabing may bagyo at nag-signal number three na sa Metro Manila, automatic, ‘yung mga gamit na kayang iakyat, tinataas na,”

(We were complacent before. We were confident that our homes could protect us from flood. But now, we automatically move our things to higher ground, especially when signal number 3 is raised in Metro Manila.)
– KATRIN ABELLA, 24-year-old employee who recalled losing four neighbors due to leptospirosis that became rampant after Ondoy.

2) Be familiar with warning systems.

“Mahalaga, para makapaghanda ang mga tao. Meron na rin dati, nag-a-alarm. Kapag 15, alert ‘yun. May maiksi, may mahabang tunog. Kapag mas mahaba, malapit na sa critical ‘yun, mga 17 na yun. Tsaka kapag matagal ang ulan, nakabantay na kami. Ang alam ko, kapag hindi malakas ang hangin, habagat yun. Kapag may ulan at hampas ng hangin, bagyo. Okay naman ang PAGASA, maganda ngayon. High-tech na.”

(It is important that we know various alarms from the river warning system; a shorter siren means alert level or a river height of 15 meters. A longer siren means an almost critical level, close to 17 meters. When the rains are prolonged, we are already on the lookout. As far as I know, habagat has weaker winds while a tropical cyclone has stronger ones. PAGASA is instrumental since they have more advanced technology now.)
– ROMEO BUENAVENTURA, 58-year-old resident of Barangay Barangka who recalled how they witnessed the sudden rise of Marikina River in September 2009

3) Never be complacent.

“’Yung bahay namin, wala pang one kilometer away from the Marikina River… Sina mama, naging kampante sila na hindi kami aabutin ng baha. ‘Yung bahay kasi namin hanggang third floor, maliban dun, first experience naming ‘yun na sobrang baha. Sa mga dati naming bahay, kapag sinabing baha, hanggang tuhod, hanggang bewang, hindi naming in-expect na kapag sa Marikina pala, floor by floor ng bahay ang pinag-uusapan. So hindi sila lumikas… may dumating na chopper mula sa LGU tapos iniligtas sila.”

(My mom lives one kilometer away from the Marikina River. My mother was confident since our house had three floors. Before, floods only reached up to our knees and waists. We were not used to the kind of massive flood Ondoy brought so they did not evacuate. Fortunately, a chopper came to rescue them.) – KATRIN ABELLLA

4) We must care for the environment.

“Yung mga ilog, ginagawa ng ibang tapunan. Kalinisan dapat. Dapat tinatapon sa lagayan ng mga basura. Hindi sa mga ilog.”

(Some people throw garbage into the rivers. We must observe cleanliness. We should manage wastes properly.)

– GENARD GUEVARRA, 21 years old and lives just a few meters away from the Marikina River

“Kailangan talaga may pagmamahal sa kalikasan. ‘Wag babuyin. ‘Wag lagyan ng basura. Dito ang takbuhan ng ulan eh, mula sa Quezon City at Montalban. ‘Yung mga basura, inaagos.”
(We should love our environment. We shouldn’t degrade it. Rubbish from Quezon City and Montalban are brought here to our city through the river.) – ROMEO BUENAVENTURA

5) Cooperation matters.

“Gan’un na lang kaimportante ang kooperasyon ng mga LGUs sa mga kalamidad na kagaya ng Ondoy kasi nga sila ‘yung may kontrol. Kumbaga, sila ‘yung medium ng mga tao para malaman kung gaano na ba kataas ‘yung tubig sa ilog o kung kailangan na ba talaga lumikas. Nakadepende rin sa kanila ‘yung safety ng mga tao, halimbawa, mali sila ng information na ibinigay… mas maraming mamamatay.”

(Cooperation among local government units is important during calamities since they have control. They also inform us how high the river is, or if we already need to evacuate. Our safety depends on them. If they give us wrong information, lives will suffer.) – KATRIN ABELLA

6) There is hope after a tragedy.
“Yung mga gamit, kahit paano, unti-unti namin na-recover. Syempre, hindi naman mabibigla na bibili ulit. Ang mahalaga, unti-unting bumabangaon.”
(We cannot easily replace our lost possessions, but we are trying to recover, little by little. What matters is that we will stand up again.) – REY BAYAOA

7) Keep the faith.

“Anim kami. Wala namang napahamak sa amin. Awa ng Diyos, nailigitas ko lahat ng pamilya ko. Kumpleto pa rin kaya ngayon. Kapag umuulan, nakahanda na kami bilang mag-anak.”
(There are six of us in the family. No one was hurt. By the grace of God, I was able to save my family members. Now, when it rains, our family automatically prepares.) – REY BAYAOA

More than half a decade has passed, and still, memories from the Ondoy calamity burn clear in people’s minds. But more important than the tragedy are the valuable lessons we’ve learned to make sure that we don’t suffer such great devastation and loss ever again.

A few weeks from entering the “ber” months, here are eight things you should know about the 8th month of the year in the aspects of weather and astronomy.

1. Habagat = Rain

The effect of the Southwest Monsoon prevails this month and may be aggravated by a weather disturbance. Locally known as Hanging Habagat, these warm and moist winds will bring rain mostly in the western section of Luzon and Visayas.

Another weather system making its appearance is the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), an area where winds coming from the northern and southern hemispheres meet. When the winds converge, convective clouds are formed, bringing rains in affected areas.

The ITCZ is also considered as the breeding ground of the Low Pressure Area (LPA), which may develop and intensify into it a tropical cyclone or “bagyo”. However, the Ridge of the High Pressure area (HPA) could still extend over the boundary and may bring warm and fair weather in certain areas.

2. Bagyo Season far from over

According to PAGASA, an average of 2 to 4 tropical cyclones enter the Philippine Area
of Responsibility (PAR) every August. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Gener Quitlong, the impending La Niña may also increase the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.

3. “Hit or miss”
In terms of cyclone tracks, the historical record of PAGASA shows two scenarios. Cyclones may hit land, particularly the Luzon area or may just move closer to the landmass before moving farther away, sparing our country.

4. Normal temperatures
In Metro Manila, temperatures may range from 24.2 to 31.3 degrees Celsius. Metro Cebu will have 25 degrees Celsius as its normal minimum temperature and 31.7 degrees Celsius as the normal maximum. In Mindanao, particularly in Metro Davao, temperatures may reach 24 to 31.7 degrees Celsius.

5. Near-normal to normal rainfall
After several months of way below-normal rainfall and drought, affected areas may now experience improved rainfall conditions. Most parts in the country will experience near- normal or 81% or more of the normal amount of rainfall. If the Habagat becomes dominant, rains may be concentrated in the western section of Luzon and Visayas.

6. Looming La Niña
Based on the latest report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), La Niña is expected to develop this year, but may not be as strong as the previous La Niña episode that occurred in 2010-2011.

La Niña is characterized by the unusual large-scale cooling of ocean temperatures in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific (CEEP). Though there is no chance for El Niño to re-develop, there is a 50- 60% probability of a La Niña development in the 3rd quarter of this year and may last until the end of 2016.

La Niña is often associated with wet conditions in some parts of Asia including the Philippines. It will bring more rains, slightly cooler temperatures, and moderate to strong tropical cyclone activities.

7. Shooting stars
Look up! According to PAGASA, August is an ideal time for skywatchers and astronomy enthusiasts. This month, spectators may enjoy the Perseids Meteor Shower, which will peak in the late evening to the early morning hours of August 12 to 13. If favorable weather permits, one can observe at least 50 meteors or more.

According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), perseid meteors travel at a speed of 132,000 miles per hour or 59 kilometers per second.

8. Parade of planets
Did you miss the alignment of five planets last February? Fret not; the space has something in store for you this month! Five bright planets in the solar system will once again align in the night sky, visible to the naked eye.

One will be able to witness Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn by tracing a line away from the setting sun. The best time to see this event is on August 18 when the moon is on its full phase. The light from the full moon will help illuminate the fainter planets, making it more visible for the observer. It is advisable to find a dark and unobstructed area – without low lying buildings or trees.

Sources:
PAGASA-DOST
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
www.earthsky.org
www.sciencealert.com

For most schools in the Philippines, June still marks the beginning of another school year. Ironically, this month usually coincides with the rainy season wherein heavy downpour, floods and class suspensions are
common occurrences.

Will June’s weather make it hard for students to go to school? Let’s find out what PAGASA has to say.

WEATHER SYSTEMS
In an interview with PanahonTV, Weather Forecaster Gener Quitlong said that seven different weather systems are likely to prevail at this time of the year:

Ridge of High Pressure Area – an extended part of an anti-cyclone that suppresses cloud formation, causing lesser chance of rains or fair weather condition.

Southwest Monsoon ¬- characterized by warm and moist air, the southwest monsoon or habagat usually speeds up cloud formation. Once enhanced by a tropical cyclone, the habagat can bring heavy downpour, which may cause floods in the western section of the country.

Intertropical Convergence Zone – refers to an area in the atmosphere where clouds are formed from the convergence of winds coming the northern and southern hemispheres. It can be a breeding ground of weather disturbances.
Easterlies – With warm and humid characteristics, these winds usually affect the eastern section of the county, bringing chances of thunderstorms.
Localized Thunderstorms – During warm days, heat speeds up evaporation and creates more clouds, which may dump moderate to heavy rains. Thunderstorms usually occur in the afternoon or evening, and last for one to two hours.
Low Pressure Area – an area in the atmosphere with a lower atmospheric pressure than its surroundings. Low pressure areas could usually develop into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone – The general term for a cyclone or bagyo, this weather disturbance is classified into four depending on its maximum sustained winds: tropical depression, tropical storm, typhoon and super typhoon.

2016’S FIRST BAGYO?
We’re almost halfway through the year but due to the El Niño-induced climatological drought, the Philippines is yet to have its first tropical cyclone.

According to Quitlong, an average of zero or one tropical cyclone enters the country’s boundary every June.

Should we have a tropical cyclone this month, it will be named Ambo. One of these scenarios is likely to happen:

EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA
El Niño phenomenon, the unusual warming of the Pacific Ocean, continues to weaken and may return to neutral condition in July.
However, PAGASA remains to be on a La Niña Watch, as there is a 50% chance of a La Niña development in the latter part of 2016.

For now, most parts of the country will continue to experience below-normal rainfall conditions except in Northern Luzon and parts of Zamboanga Peninsula, where above-normal rainfall conditions will be experienced this month.

HABAGAT IS BACK

According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Chris Perez, the habagat will strengthen in the coming week and may extend over Central and Southern Luzon.

“Hindi lamang dito sa ating bansa kundi maging dito sa West Philippine Sea, inaasahan natin, sa mga darating na araw simula ng Wednesday hanggang Biyernes ay posibleng mas maraming pag-ulan na dulot ng habagat at mas magiging maulan ang nakararaming bahagi ng ating bansa hindi lamang dito sa kanlurang bahagi, posibleng umabot na rin dito sa silangang bahagi dito sa may Palawan area, hanggang sa Kanlurang Kabisayaan,” stated Perez in an interview last Sunday, June 4, 2016.

“In the coming days, specifically from Wednesday to Friday, the habagat will start to pour more rains in the country. Rainy days are expected in the eastern and western sections of the Philippines, and could extend over Palawan and the Western Visayas.”

After the sweltering heat of the past few months, we now brace ourselves for rains asPAGASA declared the onset of the rainy season yesterday afternoon, May 24, 2016.

In a press statement, the weather bureau said that widespread rainfall has been observed these past few days. Winds, which previously moved from the east, have now changed from a south to southwest direction, indicating the shift from dry to wet season.

Due to the warm and moist characteristics of the “habagat” or the southwest monsoon, rains and thunderstorms will be frequently experienced in several parts of the country. However, PAGASA clarified that tag-ulan will be mostly experienced over the Climate Type 1 areas, covering the western parts of Luzon and Visayas.

Last year, the onset of tag-ulan was announced on June 23, 2015— delayed compared to this year. PAGASA Weather Forecaster Glaiza Escullar said there is nothing unusual with this because the rainy season normally occurs during the last week of May until early June.

“Mas maaga nga ito compared noong nakaraang taon dahil maaga ring nag-umpisa ang onset sa bahagi ng India, Bangladesh at Myanmar… at kapag nag-south to southwest na rin ang hangin sa bahagi ng China. South to southwest na rin po ang hangin lalo na sa western side ng ating bansa,” Escullar said in an interview with Panahon TV.

Meanwhile, here are the criteria for declaring the onset of tag-ulan:

– A five-day period within April, May, June or July with a total rainfall amount of 25 millimeters or more with three consecutive days having at least 1 millimeter of rainfall per day. This must be recorded at no less than five of these stations: Laoag, Vigan, Dagupan, Iba, Mindoro Occidental, Ambulong, Iloilo, and Metro Manila.

– At least two out of three stations in Metro Manila must have satisfied the first criterion simultaneously.

– Prevailing winds in the Western Philippines should have westerly to southwesterly components. The southwest monsoon,commonly known as hanging habagat, should also be the dominant wind system.

Although some of these criteria are yet to be satisfied, PAGASA decided to declare the onset ahead of time to prepare the public for heavier rains in the coming days. Escullar added that within the next three days, there is a big possibility that all the criteria will be observed.

Now that tag-ulan has arrived, all are advised to regularly bring umbrellas and raincoats. Know more about what to bring in “TAG-ULAN” Checklist: Rainy Day Essentials.

La Niña

El Niño is expected to return to a neutral condition by the end of July. But, there is still a 50% chance that La Niña will develop in the Pacific Ocean. It will possibly affect the country in the last quarter of 2016 (October- December).

Know more: El Niño to end, La Niña to follow?

Six years have passed after the entry of Tropical Storm Ondoy, with international name Ketsana, into the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on September 24, 2009. Ondoy enhanced the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat, which triggered heavy to torrential rains in most parts of Luzon, including Metro Manila.

The enhancement of the habagat resulted to widespread flooding in the Metro, Central and Southern Luzon, and some parts of Visayas and Mindanao, resulting in 1,786 flooded barangays in more than 150 municipalities and 30 cities of 26 provinces in Regions I, II, III, IV-A, IV-B, V, VI, IX, XII, ARMM, CAR and NCR.

Aside from floods, landslides also occurred along Mt. Province-Cagayan, Brgy. San Juan-Banyo, Arayat in Pampanga, and Brgy. Bongalon, Sangay in Camarines Sur. Water levels also escalated. The gates in the dams of La Mesa, Ipo, Ambuklao and Binga were opened as water levels reached critical status.

In the final report of the National Disaster Coordinating Council (now called the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council), more than 900 thousand families or more than 4 million persons were affected by Ondoy and the enhanced habagat. In terms of casualties, more than 464 people were declared dead, with 529 injured and 37 missing.

Massive destruction in infrastructure and agriculture amounted to around P11 billion. Damaged school buildings were pegged at 1,382, including instructional materials and school equipment amounting to more than P600 billion. More than 185,000 houses were also damaged from the wrath of Ondoy and the habagat.

According to PAGASA, the amount of rain accumulated within 24 hours surpassed the whole month’s normal rainfall. Thus, in just a few hours, Ondoy and the habagat dumped enormous rains to the affected areas.

Six years later, we have learned to be more vigilant when it comes to inclement weather. Flood prone areas in more barangays and cities have been identified through hazard mapping. We may be drenched in water, but the spirit of bayanihan keeps us afloat, allowing us to recover and rise again after a calamity.

Sources: PAGASA-DOST
NDRRMC

At 4:00 AM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm ‪#‎JennyPH was estimated at 1,120 km. east of Calayan Island, Cagayan. It intensified with maximum sustained winds of 95 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 120 kph. It is forecast to move west-northwest at 7 kph. Though Jenny has a slim chance of making landfall on any part of the country, it will continue to enhance the southwest monsoon.
Today, MIMAROPA, Calabarzon, Bicol Region, Visayas, and Mindanao will have rainy weather conditions. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms will prevail over Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon. The effect of the enhanced southwest monsoon will be experienced in Metro Manila starting tomorrow.

If Jenny maintains its speed and direction, it is expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Sunday evening or early Monday morning.

<brToday the southwest monsoon is affecting Palawan and the western section of Visayas and Mindanao. Cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and isolated thunderstorms will be experienced over Western Visayas, Caraga northern Mindanao and the province of Palawan.
Meanwhile, partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms will prevail over Metro Manila and the rest of the country.
Last night, most parts of Metro Manila were soaked in heavy rain showers. PAGASA Weather Forecaster Meno Mendoza said that the rain showers were cauesd mainly by thunderstorm activities. The accumulated heat from noon until early afternoon resulted to the formation of thunderstorm clouds. These give rise to rain that usually pours between 5 PM – 11 PM. To understand more about thunderstorms, watch this video:Panahon TV interview with PAGASA.