The southwest monsoon, locally known as “habagat”, will bring heavy rains over Ilocos Region, Benguet, Central Luzon, Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan. Residents are advised against the possibility of flash floods and landslide.
Meanwhile, Metro Manila, Mindoro, CALABARZON, and the rest of Cordillera and Cagayan Valley will experience occasional rain showers.
The rest of the country will have good weather, coupled with partly cloudy skies and isolated rain showers.
A new low pressure area (LPA) was formed yesterday inside Philippine boundary. At 4 AM, the LPA was located at 870 kms. east northeast of Basco, Batanes. However, according to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Gener Quitlong, the LPA has a slim chance of developing into a tropical cyclone and will dissipate soon before leaving the Philippine boundary.
According to PAGASA, habagat will bring rains this weekend. Monsoon rains will be experienced throughout Luzon and Western Visayas, particularly over the regions of Ilocos, Cordillera and Central Luzon. Residents are advised against flashfloods and landslides. The rest of Luzon including Metro Manila, Western and Central Visayas will have occasional rains, while the rest of the country will have fair weather aside from isolated thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, Typhoon Nangka was last located at 2,300 kilometers east of Northern Luzon. PAGASA Weather Forecaster Jun Galang said that Nangka is expected to enhance the habagat as it moves closer to Philippine Area of Responsibility. Rainy weather in most parts of Luzon is expected next week.
The axis of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is now across Visayas.
This means rainy weather, not only in the Visayas, but also over MIMAROPA and Mindanao. The remaining parts of the country will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms usually in the afternoon or evening.
Meanwhile, a cloud cluster outside the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) is being monitored by the weather bureau.
State Meteorologist Jori Loiz said that this might develop into a low pressure area and enter the PAR late this week or early next week.
Its possibility of becoming a tropical cyclone is currently being assessed. Once it does, this might enhance the southwest monsoo,n bringing more rains especially over the western section of the Philippines.
In relation to the southwest monsoon, Loiz shared that it is affecting not only the Philippines, but also other countries in Southeast Asia. In fact, India is experiencing heavy rains due to a strong monsoon today.
Rainy season in the Philippines is expected to commence before June ends.
Among its indicators is the presence of the southwest monsoon, locally known as habagat. This word is derived from bagatan, which means southern in Ilocano. State Meteorologist Gener Quitlong explained that the habagat is characterized by warm and humid air blowing from the southwest. Most of its affected areas are in the western sections of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
The habagat is capable of bringing heavy rain showers from three days to one week. This year, it is expected to prevail by the end of June up to the month of September.
Though we are already halfway into the month, there is still no trace of southwest monsoon or “hanging habagat” within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). According to PAGASA, habagat is characterized as warm and moist air that affects the country, particularly the western section. This is also one of the “tag-ulan indicators.”
It was on June 10 last year when the weather bureau announced the onset of rainy season. But as of now, PAGASA Weather Forecaster Gener Quitlong said that the habagat has not yet been observed in the country. Though we are about to step into the 2nd half of June, the onset of rainy season might come a little late compared to the previous year.
Quitlong added that the ridge of the high pressure area (HPA) and the influence of the weak El Niño are just some of the factors for the delay of “tag-ulan.” He also explained that a low pressure area or tropical cyclone is needed to generate or direct the southwesterly winds towards the Philippines.
Today, the ridge of HPA continues to extend over Northern and Central Luzon while the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is expected to affect Mindanao. This weather system is an area where winds coming from the northern and southern hemispheres meet. As winds converge, clouds are formed, bringing rains over the affected areas.
ITCZ is also considered as the breeding ground of low pressure areas that may develop into tropical cyclones. However, Quitlong said that as of now, no weather disturbance is expected to affect the country within the week.
Based on the 24-hour weather forecast of PAGASA, this weather system will dump light to moderate rains and thunderstorms, not only in Mindanao, but also over Palawan and Visayas. The rest of the country, including Metro Manila, will have generally fair weather with the chance of isolated thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening. All are advised to bring umbrellas and monitor updates from PAGASA.
Watch the interview with PAGASA Weather Forecaster Gener Quitlong:
As we begin the countdown to ending another year, we take a look at the weather events that made 2014 memorable, weather-wise.
Situation: Tropical Cyclones
This year, a total of 19 tropical cyclones entered the PAR (Philippine Area of Responsibility).
The first was Agaton, which made its entry last January 17. Though it was identified as a Tropical Depression, the lowest category for cyclones, Agaton caused severe flooding in Eastern Visayas, Northern Mindanao and the CARAGA region.
According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC), 244,344 families were affected in more than a thousand villages in 16 provinces. There were at least 1,147 houses destroyed and more than one thousand partially damaged. All in all, damages in infrastructure and agriculture were estimated at more than 500 million pesos.
Trending Typhoons
From the 19 tropical cyclones that entered PAR, 10 were under the Typhoon category with wind speeds of 118 to 220 kilometers per hour.
1. Domeng
2. Florita
3. Glenda
4. Henry
5. Jose
6. Luis
7. Paeng
8. Neneng
9. 0mpong
10. Ruby
From these 10 typhoons, Ompong and Ruby could be categorized as Super Typhoons.
Entering PAR on October 7 and making its exit on October 11, Ompong, with international name Vongfong, was classified by the U.S Joint Typhoon Warning Center as a Category 5 Super Typhoon.
Packing maximum sustained winds of 215 kilometers per hour and gustiness of 250 kilometers per hour, Ompong—thankfully— did not hit the country as it re-curved towards Mainland Japan.
Related articles: Gazing into the Eye of 2014’s Strongest Typhoon
Strongest Typhoon for 2014 still inside PH
But Typhoon Ruby was totally different story. With the fitting “Hagupit” as its international name, Ruby entered the country’s boundary on December 3 and made its way out on December 11. With maximum sustained winds of 215 kilometers per hour and gustiness of 250 kilometers per hour, Ompong made five landfalls.
First landfall: Dolores, Eastern Samar
Second landfall: Cataingan, Masbate
Third landfall: Torrijos, Masbate
Fourth landfall: Laiya, Batangas
Fifth landfall: Lubang, Island
The NDRRMC filed a total of more than four million residents affected in Regions III, IV-A, IV-B, V, VI, VII, VIII, CARAGA and the National Capital Region. 18 deaths were recorded while injured persons reached up to 916. Ruby damaged mostly infrastructure and agriculture—the total cost amounting to more than 5 billion peos.
Due to its devastating impact, a state of calamity was declared in San Pablo City in Laguna, Batangas, Albay, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Masbate, Naga City, Juaban and Gubat in Sorsogon, Sorsogon City, Aklan; Maayon, Dumalag and Panay in Capiz; and Northern and Eastern Samar.
Because fatal storm surges brought by Typhoon Yolanda in 2013 made the public more aware of this weather phenomenon, Ruby kept Filipinos on their toes.
Coincidentally, while Ruby was inside PAR, an astronomical event happened. This was the Full Moon phase, which caused higher tidal variations due to our satellite’s strong gravitational pull.
Weather forecaster Chris Perez explained that higher waves were expected due to the combination of storm surge and the effects of the Full Moon.
Watch the Interview: Storm Tide
Scorching Season
PAGASA officially announced the start of the Hot and Dry season last March 26. Easterlies, the prevailing wind system during this time, brought hot and humid weather to the country.
Aside from the easterlies, this season’s indicators included the presence of the High Pressure Area (HPA), which brings good weather conditions, the termination of the northeast monsoon, and the increase in temperatures.
Upon the onset of the Hot and Dry season, the country undeniably experienced a number of scorching days that were especially evident in the Luzon area.
In March, Tuguegarao recorded a maximum temperature of 37.9 degrees Celsius. But its days got hotter in April and May, which brought in temperatures of 39 degrees and 39.8 degrees consecutively.
Meanwhile, the Science Garden in Quezon City documented a high of 36.7 degrees Celsius in May.
The Unpredictable El Niño
Within this year, the El Niño phenomenon became a hot topic during the hot season as PAGASA continued to monitor the ups and down of sea surface temperature.
From April 21 to 28, PAGASA recorded a substantial increase in the sea surface temperature anomaly from 0.2 to 0.4 degree Celsius. It was then forecast that El Niño might reach its peak in the last quarter of 2014.
But with the recent report from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, only weak El Nino conditions were observed in November and December.
Here comes the rain!
The rainy season in the country officially started in June 10. Before declaring the onset of this season, PAGASA first made sure that the following requirements were met:
• Daily thunderstorm activity
• Prevailing southwest monsoon
• 5-day period with a total rainfall of 25 millimeters or more in three consecutive days.
Come on, Amihan!
The Amihan season was officially declared by PAGASA on October 16. The northeast monsoon or amihan is the prevailing wind system, bringing light rains to its affected areas. It also has cold and dry characteristics, resulting to colder mornings.
At this time of the year, a gradual decrease in temperatures was observed in different parts of the country.
Winter Solstice
Winter season in the northern hemisphere officially started on December 22 this year. This also signaled the start of experiencing longer nights and shorter days in the Philippines.
During the winter solstice, the northern hemisphere leans the farthest distance from the Sun, causing longer nights and lower temperatures for those in the northern hemisphere. The opposite happens in the southern hemisphere where people experience the longest day.
Related article: Winter has arrived
Although a lot has happened this year, there’s more to come this 2015. So brace yourself for those inevitable storms, but remember to keep to the sunny side of the street. With all the changes the weather brings, one thing stays the same: the Filipino brand of resilience that knows no bounds.
Meteorology covers a wide variety of terminology that we often hear, but seldom understand and remember. Check out these weather words and be in the know!
1. CLIMATE
Climate is the general weather pattern in a specific area that involves temperature, humidity, rainfall, air pressure and other meteorological variables over a long period of time. According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), some scientists define climate as the average weather condition based on 30 years of observation.
It is important to study climate as it plays a big role in our lives. Rising global temperatures can cause sea levels to rise or affect precipitation over a specific region, human health and various ecosystems. Climate change is one of our generation’s major concerns.
2. SEASON
Season refers to the time of the year caused by the tilting of the Earth. The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) says it is the division of the year based on the recurring astronomical or climatic phenomenon.
However, the location of an area, whether it is in the northern or southern hemisphere, affects its seasons. Other regions have complete seasons: winter, spring, summer and fall. Philippines, being a tropical country, has two official seasons – wet and dry. The wet season usually starts in June as the southwest monsoon or habagat prevails. Rainfall during this season is concentrated over the western sections of the country.
Meanwhile, dry season normally starts in March when warm and humid weather is experienced. Though the scorching heat is felt over all the country, PAGASA clarifies that the term “summer” is not applicable to the Philippines. Meteorologically, we only have the wet and dry seasons.
3. ITCZ
The convergence of winds coming from the northern and southern hemispheres results to group of convective clouds known as the ITCZ or Intertropical Convergence Zone. This weather system affects the country depending on the orientation of the sun or the season. Once it becomes active, it can be a breeding ground of weather disturbances or low pressure areas.
Aside from tropical cyclones, ITCZ is one of the weather systems that cause flooding and landslides because it triggers moderate to heavy precipitation over the affected areas.
4. PAR
PAR means Philippine Area of Responsibility, an area in the Northwest Pacific, where PAGASA monitors tropical cyclones that are expected to affect the country. Once a tropical cyclone enters PAR, it is automatically given a local name so Filipinos can easily remember it.
With a measurement of more than 4 million square kilometres, PAR covers the West Philippine Sea, Bashi Channel over the north, part of the Pacific Ocean in the east and Sulu and Celebes Seas in the south.
One must remember that the Philippine Area of Responsibility is different from the country itself. When we say a tropical cyclone is entering the PAR, it doesn’t mean that it will hit the Philippine landmass. It may still change its course or re-curve away from the country.
5. HABAGAT
Filipinos often hear the southwest monsoon or habagat during the rainy season. Characterized by warm and moist air, it speeds up cloud formation, which dumps rains mostly over the western section of the country.
Once a habagat is enhanced by a tropical cyclone entering PAR, it can bring heavy downpour that may cause widespread flooding.
During the passage of “Ondoy” last 2009 and “Maring” in 2013, habagat brought enormous amounts to Luzon, which led to serious flooding.
6. AMIHAN
After habagat comes the northeast monsoon or amihan, a wind system characterized by cold and dry air coming from Mainland China. It normally starts to prevail during mid-October just like this year, when its onset was officially declared by PAGASA on October 16, 2014.
Amihan is responsible for colder mornings and lower temperatures during the “ber” months. It also affects sea conditions and may direct tropical cyclones towards the Philippine landmass with a higher chance of landfall.
7. THUNDERSTORM
PAGASA issues thunderstorm warnings everyday mostly in the afternoon or evening. A thunderstorm is a weather disturbance that produces rains, gusty winds, lightning and thunder.
Thunderstorm formation occurs through water cycle, wherein heat serves as the main component. As the sun heats up the land or a body of water, warm air rises, producing clouds by means of condensation. Once the cloud becomes massive, precipitation follows in the form of rain, drizzle or hail.
Along with gusty winds and moderate to heavy rains, thunder and lightning also occur during a thunderstorm. Lightning is caused by the connection of the positive charges at the top of the cloud and the negative charges formed at the bottom. Due to lightning, thunder is produced by vibration of air particles.
Flooding in low lying areas is expected during thunderstorms.
8. TROPICAL CYCLONE
Tropical cyclone is the general term for a “bagyo,” which starts out from a cloud cluster that develops into a low pressure area (LPA), an area that has an atmospheric pressure lower than its surrounding locations.
A tropical cyclone is classified into three: Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm and Typhoon. Each of these is measured by its maximum wind speeds and not by its amount of rainfall. An average of 19 to 21 tropical cyclones enter PAR each year.
9. LANDFALL
Landfall happens when the surface of a tropical cyclone intersects with a coastline. In this scenario, the landmass or the affected area will experience stormy weather with moderate to heavy rains and gusty winds. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), it is possible for a cyclone’s strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. In some instances, its strongest winds could also remain over the water even if it made its landfall.
Tropical cyclones can have a series of landfalls like what happened to Typhoon Yolanda wherein 6 landfall activities were recorded on the 8th of November 2013.
10. STORM SURGE
Storm surge is the abnormal rise in sea level associated with a tropical storm or typhoon. It is usually measured by deducting the normal high tide from the observed storm tide.
This event is never related to tsunami, which is a sea level rise brought by a strong earthquake. A tsunami is triggered by underwater seismic activities while a storm surge is generated by strong winds from a storm.
Sources: PAGASA-DOST, NOAA, NASA
Aside from being only two months away from the Christmas season, October also heralds a few weather changes that will have you reaching for the blanket early in the morning. Read on and find out what you can expect on the tenth month of the year.
1. Colder mornings ahead
After the Autumnal Equinox last September 23, longer nights will continue this October. This month will also be the transition period for wind systems as the wind pattern changes from southwest to northeast. The northeast monsoon or amihan starts to affect the country usually by mid to late October. It is cold and dry in nature, resulting to a temperature drop and a slight chill mostly in the early morning.
2. Rains over the eastern section
Who could forget the southwest monsoon or habagat, which brought enormous amounts of rain in the past few months? Because of this, the western section of Luzon, including Metro Manila, experienced widespread flooding and gusty winds that caused damage to properties. This October, however, residents of the country’s eastern section, which include Cagayan Valley, Aurora and Quezon Province, is more likely to be affected by rains brought by amihan.
3. Possible landfall of tropical cyclones
According to PAGASA, about two to three tropical cyclones or bagyo may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility during the month of October. Tropical cyclones usually move northwest, which means a higher chance of hitting the landmass, making Northern and Central Luzon areas prone to possible landfall activities. The direction or track of the tropical cyclones depends on the surge of the Northeast Monsoon or amihan.
However, changes may still occur as PAGASA continues to monitor the probability of a “weak El Niño” in the last quarter of 2014.
We, Filipinos are known, not only for our hospitality, but also for having the longest Christmas celebration in the world. As early as the first day of September, which marks the beginning of the “Ber Months,” Christmas carols can be heard in establishments, reminding everyone that the yuletide season is just a few months away.
One of the exciting events during “ber months” is the Autumnal Equinox. According to PAGASA, it will happen on September 23, Tuesday, at 10:29 am in Philippine Standard Time.
During the equinox, there will be equal lengths of day and night, meaning there will be 12 hours of daytime and 12 hours of night time. Instead of a tilt away from or towards the sun, the earth’s axis of rotation is perpendicular to the sun rays. After this, Philippine nights will be longer as the Sun moves below the celestial equator towards the southern hemisphere. Longer nights also mean shorter exposure to sunlight. That’s why a slight temperature drop can be expected.
Meanwhile, December 21 will have the shortest day and the longest night of the year, marking the Winter Solstice in the northern hemisphere. Although the Philippines does not have winter, we experience cooler temperatures at this time because we are located in the northern half of the Earth.
The onset of the Northeast Monsoon or “Amihan,” which brings cold and dry air, is also a major factor of cold weather. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Fernando Cada, this usually occurs during late October. The onset of Amihan could mean a slight chill during early mornings, mostly in parts of Luzon.
The peak of Amihan is in January, and most likely to last until February. January is one of the coldest months of the year. Northern, elevated provinces like Benguet usually experience the lowest temperatures, allowing the formation of frost in their vegetable farms.
Last year, PAGASA declared the onset of Amihan on October 17, 2013. The weather bureau observed the development of high pressure areas over mainland China, which shifted the wind direction, bringing cold and dry air over the Extreme Northern Luzon.
Currently, PAGASA continues to monitor the probability of a “weak El Niño” in the last quarter of 2014. This phenomenon, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, might affect the weather patterns in the country. While temperatures may be higher than normal, breezes may not be as cold as expected. Rainfall below the normal level may also be experienced in the coming months.
SOURCE: PAGASA