Though the Low Pressure Area (LPA), formerly Bagyong Amang, continues to bring light to moderate rains in the regions of Cagayan Valley and Cordillera, PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier says it is expected to dissipate within 24 hours. Afterwhich, the northeast monsoon will then prevail in Luzon.

Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will experience cloudy skies with light rains due to the said weather system. Visayas and Mindanao can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

With the strong surge of the northeast monsoon, PAGASA has issued a new gale warning. Rough to very rough sea conditions are expected in the seaboards of Northern Luzon. The agency advises against sea travel in the mentioned coasts in the following hours.

In other news, a magnitude 5.6 earthquake shook Simunul, Tawi-Tawi at 1:19 AM today. PHIVOLCS reported an intensity 4 in Simunul, Bongao and Panglima Sugala in Tawi-Tawi and in Siasi in Sulu. Intensity 3 was recorded in Languyan, Tawi-Tawi and in Maimbung, Sulu. Although there is no expected damage after the quake, aftershocks in the following hours may occur.

The northeast monsoon or “hanging amihan” still prevails over Luzon this Monday, bringing cloudy skies with light rains over the regions of Cagayan Valley and Cordillera. Isolate cases of light rains are also expected in Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon.

Eastern Visayas, CARAGA and Davao regions, on the other hand, will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorm, while the rest of Visayas and Mindanao can expect a fair weather condition apart from localized thunderstorms.

Strong to gale force wind is expected to affect the seaboards of Luzon and Visayas. Sea travel is risky due to the rough to very rough sea conditions generated by the strong surge of the northeast monsoon.

Meanwhile, PAGASA continues to monitor the low pressure area (LPA) outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier says it is expected to enter PAR on Thursday. Current analysis of the forecasting models show three scenarios of what may happen to the said weather disturbance – to dissipate, to recurve or to intensify as a tropical cyclone, which would make it the first bagyo this year.

In other news, a 4.9-magnitude earthquake was recorded 73 kms. east of Hernani in Eastern Samar at 12:07 this morning. There are no expected aftershocks or damage that may occur in the following hours, according to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).

It sounds like the apocalypse, but it’s true: a killer earthquake may or may not come in this lifetime, causing thousands of deaths and massive destruction in Manila. Find out what will happen when “The Big One” arrives.

Fault Finding: The Huge Earthquake that’s Waiting to Happen

The Philippines is positioned within the Pacific Ring of Fire, where high seismic activities such as volcanic eruptions and earthquakes occur. Apart from the active faults traversing the country, there are 23 active volcanoes that can also generate earthquakes.

On October 15, 2013, a 7.2 magnitude quake jolted Central Visayas, resulting into 222 deaths and destroying over 73,000 houses in less than a minute. With the seismic activity equal to the explosion of thirty-two Hiroshima atomic bombs, the provinces of Bohol and Cebu declared a state of calamity.

Greater Metro Manila Area (GMMA) is not exempt from earthquakes due to the very ripe West Valley Fault. Its 90 to 100-kilometer length crosses Rizal, Marikina, Quezon City, Pasig, Makati, Taguig, Muntinlupa and Laguna. Moreover, 35% of the population inhabiting the said areas lives right above this fault line.

The last recorded movement of the West Valley Fault was more than three centuries ago, in 1658. According to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), a fault line usually moves sometime between two hundred to four hundred years. The movement of the fault is predicted to have a horizontal friction in between plates or what geologists call an “essentially strike slip.” The anticipated killer quake has been dubbed as “The Big One,” which can produce a magnitude 7.2, putting the capital’s population of over eleven million people at risk.

If the epicenter of the major quake hits Metro Manila with an intensity of 8 or 9, three million people would need to be evacuated; an additional 18,300 may perish due to fires in 97,800 buildings throughout the metropolis; 7 bridges would collapse, and secondary hazards such as liquefaction and landslide would also pose risks.

According to the United Nations, our country may lose as much as 19 percent of its urban-produced capital in such an earthquake, suffering economic losses of more than 9 billion US dollars. While, NDRRMC projects 2.3 to 2.4 trillion pesos or 10% loss in our Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

As always, the key to surviving calamities is knowledge and preparedness. Here’s how you can protect yourself before, during, and after earthquakes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gy8-dBTP3-Q