A new weather disturbance is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this week.

According to PAGASA, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) previously spotted outside PAR has developed into a tropical depression. As of 10 AM, it was located 1,540 kilometers east of Mindanao. It has maximum sustained winds of 45 kph and gustiness of 60 kph, slowly moving at a west-northwest direction.
According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Loriedin dela Cruz, the LPA can possibly enter PAR within 24 hours. If this happens, the tropical depression will be given the local name “Dante,” this month’s second tropical cyclone.

Today, Easterlies or warm and humid air from the Pacific Ocean prevail in the eastern sections of the country. This weather system will bring partly cloudy to cloudy skies or generally fair weather in the entire archipelago except for isolated rain showers or thunderstorms. Humid weather is still expected to prevail.

The Hot and Dry season may be around the corner but this doesn’t exempt the county from weather disturbances.

At 2:00 AM today, a Low Pressure Area (LPA) entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Gener Quitlong, the LPA was located at 800 kilometers east of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur at 4:00 AM. The LPA has yet to have any direct effect on the country but its extension will bring light to moderate rains in the Caraga Region today.

“Sa ngayon, within 24-48 hours hindi po natin ito inaasahan na magiging bagyo. Ibig sabihin hindi po favorable ‘yung environment. ‘Yun nga lang, lalapit po ito sa ating bansa at dadaan po sa Kabisayaan.” (We do not expect this to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours due to the unfavorable environment. However, it will approach the landmass and will cross Visayas.)

Starting tomorrow, March 20, this weather system will bring cloudy skies with moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms in the provinces of Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur and Northern Mindanao. Residents in these areas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Meanwhile, theNortheast Monsoon is still dominant in Luzon where it will bring partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains. For Visayas and the rest of Mindanao, partly cloudy to cloudy skies will prevail only with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms today.

Rains caused by the Low Pressure Area (LPA) are likely to continue in several areas in the southern parts of the country today.

At 11:00 AM today, the LPA was spotted at 135 kilometers southeast of General Santos City. Compared to previous days, the effects of this weather disturbance have already weakened. However, it will still bring cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and isolated thunderstorms in Visayas and Mindanao.

In an interview with PanahonTV, PAGASA Weather Forecaster Sheila Reyes said that the LPA has slim chance of developing into a tropical cyclone or “bagyo.”

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Meanwhile, the Northeast Monsoon still persists in Northern Luzon. It brings partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains in the regions of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms also prevail in Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon.

The Philippines remains storm-free on the first day of February though rains may prevail due to the Northeast Monsoon, locally known as Hanging Amihan. Amihan is cold and dry air coming from Mainland China or Siberia. It usually begins to affect the country during the ber months and peaks in January until the early part of February.

Some parts of Luzon may have a gloomy start as cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and isolated thunderstorms will be experienced in Metro Manila and the provinces of Isabela, Aurora, Rizal and Quezon. Meanwhile, light rains may also affect the regions of Cordillera, Ilocos, the rest of Cagayan Valley and the rest of Central Luzon. The remaining parts of the country will have generally fair weather condition apart from isolated rain showers or thunderstorms in the latter part of the day.

Along with the rains, Amihan also brings cooler weather mostly during night time or early morning. Here’s a quick recap of the lowest temperatures recorded in the previous month.

Gale warning is up inthe northern seaboard of Northern Luzon. These include Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Cagayan and Ilocos Norte. Rough to very rough sea conditions are expected with wave height ranging from 3.4 to 4.5 meters. Fishing boats and other small seacraft are advised not to venture out while larger sea vessels are alerted against big waves.

As another month begins, another Low Pressure Area (LPA) was spotted outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). The weather disturbance was last located at 1, 700 kilometers east-southeast of Mindanao. According to an interview with PAGASA Weather Forecaster Gener Quitlong, the LPA is expected to enter our premises tomorrow, and may also develop into a tropical cyclone. If it develops into a tropical depression after entering the PAR, it will be named as “Bising”, the first cyclone for February 2017.

Quitlong also discussed that an average of 0-1 tropical cyclone usually develops within the PAR during the month of February. Based on the climatological record of the weather bureau, a cyclone normally re-curves away from the landmass. Since the current LPA is still outside the PAR, PAGASA is yet to give its definite track. The public is advised to monitor updates and further development.

In case you missed it, here’s our full interview with PAGASA earlier today: https://youtu.be/MxnwkokNsXo

On the last Sunday of January 2017, three weather systems are bringing rains in the archipelago.

These include a Low Pressure Area (LPA) estimated at 70 kilometers south of Davao City, Davao del Sur at 4:00 AM, the Tail-End of Cold Front affecting Southern Luzon and Visayas, and the Northeast Monsoon prevailing in Northern and Central Luzon.

Today, cloudy skies with moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms that may trigger flashfloods and landslides, are expected in Eastern Visayas and Caraga.

Cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and thunderstorms will be experienced in the Bicol Region, the rest of Visayas and Mindanao, CALABARZON and the provinces of Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon and Aurora.

Cloudy skies with light rains are expected in Metro Manila, Cagayan Valley Region and rest of Central Luzon.

Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains will prevail in the rest of Luzon.

The LPA inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) may be bringing rains, but it is no longer expected to to intensify into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours, PAGASA Weather Foracaster Gener Quitlong said in an interview with PanahonTV.

“Patuloy po itong magiging LPA hanggang sa ito po ay malusaw o malakalabas po ng ating bansa. Hindi po ito magiging isang bagyo so ngayong buwan po wala na tayong inaasahan na bagyo na maaring makaapekto sa ating bansa.” (This could remain as an LPA and dissipate or exit the country. It is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone, so no tropical cyclone is expected to affect the country this month.)

It can be recalled that Tropical Depression Auring, the first tropical cyclone of 2017 occurred last January 7. It made four landfall activities in Mindanao and Visayas areas before weakening into an LPA.

Gale warning remains in the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon and Visayas. Fishing boats and other small seacraft are advised not to venture out, while larger sea vessels are alerted against big waves due to rough to very rough sea conditions in these provinces:

Tropical Depression “Aere” (formerly “Julian” inside the Philippine boundary), has weakened into a low pressure area (LPA). At 4:00 AM today, it was last estimated at 625 kms. west of Basco, Batanes.

Aere has no direct effect on any part of the country, but it continues to enhance the southwest monsoon, locally known as hanging habagat. This weather system will particularly affect the western section of Northern and Central Luzon.

Meanwhile, another LPA was spotted at 1,030 kms. east of Mindanao. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Samuel Duran, it may enter the PAR today and has a high chance to develop into a tropical cyclone or bagyo. If it does, it will be named “Karen”, the 11th cyclone to enter the Philippine boundary.

Today, residents of Metro Manila and the regions of CALABARZON, Cordillera, Ilocos, Central Luzon, Zamboanga Peninsula, SOCCSKSARGEN, Davao and the provinces of Occidental Mindoro and Palawan are alerted against cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and thunderstorms. The remaining parts of the country will have generally fair weather, apart from isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

Fisherfolk are advised to prepare for moderate to occasionally rough sea conditions in the northern and eastern sections of Luzon, while the rest of the country will have slight to moderate seas.

Meanwhile, Typhoon “Songda” continues to move farther away from the country. It was last seen at 2,550 kms. east northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon, with maximum sustained winds of 165 kph and gustiness of up to 205 kph. Moving north at 17 kph, PAGASA said it is no longer expected to enter the PAR due to its proximity and course.

World News: Death toll rises in Haiti

Hurricane Matthew, dubbed as the fiercest Carribean storm for almost a decade, directly hit Haiti, Tuesday last week. The powerful hurricane caused 1,000 deaths and affected more than a million people, with at least 300,000 in need of immediate assistance.

In the wake of Hurricane Matthew, health officials warned about the spread of cholera. Cholera is a bacterial infection, highly contagious in areas with contaminated water. It can cause severe diarrhea and may cause death if untreated.

Authorities are concerned about the rising cholera cases, but are keeping their focus on giving primary needs to the victims of the calamity. These include water, food, medication and shelter.

As we expect Tropical Depression (TD) Nona to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this weekend, TD Onyok crossed the PAR line yesterday afternoon. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier, it is forecast to make its landfall tomorrow afternoon or in the evening in the Caraga region. And as of 4:00 AM today, Onyok was last located at 700 kms. east-northeast of Mati City, Davao Oriental, with maximum sustained winds of 55 kph. It moves westward at 15 kph.

Meanwhile, Nona remains stationary at its location of 60 kms. east of Iba, Zambales. Javier adds that it may continuously weaken into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) in the next 24 hours. Public Storm Warning Signal number 1 is still raised over Pangasinan and Zambales.

With the two (2) tropical cyclones inside our boundary, rains with gusty winds prevail in the areas with Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1. Meanwhile, moderate to occasionally heavy rains and isolated thunderstorms are expected over Cagayn Valley, Cordillera, and the rest of Central Luzon and Ilocos Region, possibly triggering flash floods and landslides. Light to moderate rains are at expected over Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Caraga and Davao Region. Fair weather conditions will be experienced in the rest of the archipelago.

Gale warning was raised in the seaboards of Northern Luzon, and the western and eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon. Because of the rough to very rough sea conditions, fisher folk and those with small seacraft are advised to avoid venturing into the said seaboards.

As of 2 AM today, the Low Pressure Area or LPA, was last located at 2,275 kms. east of Mindanao. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier, the LPA might enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening or on Saturday. There is a possibility that it might intensify into a Tropical Depression in the coming hours as it enters our boundary. Chances are, it will make its landfall in the Bicol Region or Eastern Visayas–though there is still the possibility that it will recurve.

Because of the Trough of Low Pressure Area (LPA) outside PAR, light to moderate rains and isolated thunderstorms prevail in Davao and SOCCSKSARGEN. Meanwhile, the Northeast Monsoon or Amihan is still affecting the extreme Northern Luzon. Amihan will bring cold weather and light rains in Batanes and the islands of Calayan and Babuyan, while good weather with chances of isolated light rains is expected in Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon. Fair weather condition will be experienced in the rest of the country.

3 months to go before Christmas! But before you start decorating your home and playing Christmas carols, know what to expect this month, weather-wise.

PAGASA declared an El Niño event, likely to strengthen before the end of this year, and may last until April to June of 2016. The weather bureau added that this event could be potentially included in the four strongest El Nino events since 1950. Impacts may include below-normal rainfall, and warmer than normal air temperature.

This month, here are the weather systems likely to prevail:
Tail End of a Cold Front
The Cold Front is an area in the atmosphere where masses of warm and cold air converge, resulting in thunderstorms. Ordinarily the Axis of the Cold Front is in the level of Taiwan or Japan. The only part that is affecting the Philippines is its tail end.

Easterly Wave
The Easterly Wave, also known as Easterlies, are winds coming from the Pacific Ocean, bringing warm and humid air. PAGASA said that the easterly wave could prevail during the month of October before the northeast monsoon (amihan) breaks in. The eastern parts of the country are most likely to experience its effect: thunderstorms and isolated rain showers.

2 Tropical Cyclones this month
Because of the El Niño phenomenon, the average tropical cyclones that are likely to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility this month are between 1-2. Normally, October has an average of 2 to 3 tropical cyclones.

Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
The ITCZ is an area in the atmosphere where winds from the Southern and Northern Hemispheres meet—a convergence that contributes to cloud formation. According to PAGASA, the axis of ITCZ is erratic, so it may affect any part of the country, usually bringing cloudy skies and light to moderate rain showers.

Low Pressure Area
The LPA is an area that has a lower atmospheric pressure than its surrounding locations. This is usually formed in the Pacific Ocean where most water vapor is available. LPA brings light to moderate and sometimes, heavy rain showers. This could also intensify into a tropical cyclone.

October’s Temperature
PAGASA Weather Forecaster Jun Galang explained that during October, temperatures start to deviate which result to colder days. The transition of winds from the Southwest to the Northeast Monsoon influences the average temperature.
Normally, the northeast monsoon (amihan) prevails in the 2nd week of November.

Overall, most of the weather systems this month produce cloudy sky and rain showers. It is advisable to keep monitoring weather updates straight from Panahon TV and PAGASA.

FAST FACTS – October Rainfall Forecast

Below normal rainfall is among the adverse effect of El Niño. This could lead to dry spell and drought condition.

Based on the rainfall forecast from the weather bureau, most parts of the country including the western section of central Luzon and areas over and southern Luzon, western Visayas and some parts of eastern Visayas and Zamboanga Peninsula will have way below normal rainfall.