3 months to go before Christmas! But before you start decorating your home and playing Christmas carols, know what to expect this month, weather-wise.
PAGASA declared an El Niño event, likely to strengthen before the end of this year, and may last until April to June of 2016. The weather bureau added that this event could be potentially included in the four strongest El Nino events since 1950. Impacts may include below-normal rainfall, and warmer than normal air temperature.
This month, here are the weather systems likely to prevail:
Tail End of a Cold Front
The Cold Front is an area in the atmosphere where masses of warm and cold air converge, resulting in thunderstorms. Ordinarily the Axis of the Cold Front is in the level of Taiwan or Japan. The only part that is affecting the Philippines is its tail end.
Easterly Wave
The Easterly Wave, also known as Easterlies, are winds coming from the Pacific Ocean, bringing warm and humid air. PAGASA said that the easterly wave could prevail during the month of October before the northeast monsoon (amihan) breaks in. The eastern parts of the country are most likely to experience its effect: thunderstorms and isolated rain showers.
2 Tropical Cyclones this month
Because of the El Niño phenomenon, the average tropical cyclones that are likely to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility this month are between 1-2. Normally, October has an average of 2 to 3 tropical cyclones.
Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
The ITCZ is an area in the atmosphere where winds from the Southern and Northern Hemispheres meet—a convergence that contributes to cloud formation. According to PAGASA, the axis of ITCZ is erratic, so it may affect any part of the country, usually bringing cloudy skies and light to moderate rain showers.
Low Pressure Area
The LPA is an area that has a lower atmospheric pressure than its surrounding locations. This is usually formed in the Pacific Ocean where most water vapor is available. LPA brings light to moderate and sometimes, heavy rain showers. This could also intensify into a tropical cyclone.
October’s Temperature
PAGASA Weather Forecaster Jun Galang explained that during October, temperatures start to deviate which result to colder days. The transition of winds from the Southwest to the Northeast Monsoon influences the average temperature.
Normally, the northeast monsoon (amihan) prevails in the 2nd week of November.
Overall, most of the weather systems this month produce cloudy sky and rain showers. It is advisable to keep monitoring weather updates straight from Panahon TV and PAGASA.
FAST FACTS – October Rainfall Forecast
Below normal rainfall is among the adverse effect of El Niño. This could lead to dry spell and drought condition.
Based on the rainfall forecast from the weather bureau, most parts of the country including the western section of central Luzon and areas over and southern Luzon, western Visayas and some parts of eastern Visayas and Zamboanga Peninsula will have way below normal rainfall.
PAGASA declares the termination of the northeast monsoon season in the Philippines, marking the start of the hot and dry season in the country.
With this development, the ridge of high pressure area and the easterlies will be the dominant weather systems in the coming days.
These systems bring generally good weather and warm days in most areas of the Philippines. However, this does not mean we are free from possible wet days.
Isolated cases of rain showers and thunderstorms may also happen due to the following:
1. Urban Heat Island Effect – wherein the concrete structures and the ground are unable to absorb and trap heat from the sun. The warmer the air over the city,the higher its capacity to hold more moisture.
These factors combine to create convergence and lead to thunderstorm formation in a particular locale, especially over the cities as their surfaces are prone to release large quantities of heat.
2. Wind Convergence – wherein two different air masses meet–winds coming from the northeast and the easterlies.
The convergence of the cold and dry air of the northeast winds, and the warm and humid air of the easterlies generate cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers or thunderstorms.
On the other hand, seafarers may enjoy calm coastal waters aside from at times moderate waves due to the possible prevalence of the easterlies, particularly over Eastern Luzon and Visayas.
Stay cool this hot season. Take precautionary measures to protect yourself from various heat-related illnesses. Read here: http://www.panahon.tv/blog/2015/03/staying-cool-this-hot-season/
From tropical depression category, “Betty” has weakened into a low pressure area (LPA) and was last spotted at 885 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora at 4 AM today. PAGASA Weather Forecaster Meno Mendoza clarifies the LPA still has no effect on any part of the country. Today, the whole country can expect generally fair weather with chances of isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon or evening.
Moderate to strong winds will prevail over the eastern section of Luzon. Fishing boats and other small seacraft are alerted against moderate to rough sea conditions brought by the nearby weather disturbance.
Meanwhile, PAGASA Weather Forecaster Gener Quitlong said the LPA will start to bring rains tomorrow over the eastern section of Luzon. It is also expected to affect the central and southern portions of Luzon. All are advised to monitor updates and further changes.
On the other hand, despite the presence of “Betty” within the PAR, the country experienced a warm weather yesterday. Here are the highest temperatures recorded on March 18, 2015.
The ridge of a high pressure area has been the dominant weather system during the past few days. According to PAGASA, the northeast monsoon or amihan has not been terminated. In fact, it is expected to re-surge tomorrow, bringing slightly colder weather.
Special Non-Working Holiday
Today marks the celebration of “Sulyog Festival” in Bongabong, Oriental Mindoro. It is a religious festival which includes dances and cultural shows that honor to St.Joseph.
Meanwhile, the people of Canlaon, Negros Oriental will also celebrate the “Pasayaw Festival”. Derived from the combined word of “Pasalamat Pinaagi sa Sayaw” or thanksgiving through dance, it reflects the joy and praise to God through the intercession of St.Joseph.
In line with the mentioned festivals, the palace has declared March 19, 2015 as special non-working holiday both for Bongabong, Oriental Mindoro and Canlaon, Negros Oriental. This aims to give full opportunity to the people to participate in the festivities.
A tropical cyclone was spotted outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). PAGASA Weather Forecaster Meno Mendoza said it is still too far to affect the country so continuous monitoring will be done by the weather bureau.
The northeast monsoon or amihan prevails over Luzon, bringing cloudy skies with light rains over Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, CALABARZON, Bicol Region, and the provinces of Aurora and Samar. Metro Manila and the rest of the country can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening.
As amihan blows over the PAR, it continues to affect the sea condition. Gale warning is up over the eastern seaboard sof Luzon and Visayas, which includes Isabela, the eastern coasts of Cagayan, Aurora, Camarines Provinces, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Quezon, Polilio Island, Samar and Leyte. Waves with height ranging from 3.4 to 4.5 meters are expected.
Cloudy weather was experienced in some parts of the country yesterday. PAGASA Weather Forecaster Chris Perez explained that the cloudiness brought by amihan has extended over Northern, Central and Southern Luzon. Due to the cloudy skies and rain showers, cooler weather was felt resulting to lower temperatures. Yesterday, the maximum temperature in Quezon City only reached 26.9 degrees Celsius, much lower than the previous days.
Weak El Niño to affect PH
In a press conference held yesterday at the Science Garden, Quezon City, PAGASA confirms an on-going weak El Niño, which is characterized by the unusual warming of the ocean in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
Aside from the below-normal rainfall, warmer air temperatures in the Philippines are also expected in the coming months. The number of tropical cyclone is less likely to be affected but El Niño can influence the cyclones’ movement and intensity. According to PAGASA, cyclones may be stronger, but with a greater chance of re-curving northward. All are advised to monitor updates and further development.
The northeast monsoon is still the dominant weather system inside the PH boundary.
Today, the islands of Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan will have partly cloudy skies with light precipitation. Meanwhile the rest of the country including Metro Manila will have favorable weather conditions, however PAGASA suggests continuous monitoring as isolated rains and thunderstorms are expected to happen within the day.
The state weather bureau is also monitoring the progress of El Nino. According to PAGASA Meteorologist Buddy Javier, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has a reported weak El Nino. However, the full details regarding the matter will be discussed today at the conference to be held at PAGASA.
March 11, 2011: The Great East Japan Quake and Tsunami
Exactly four years ago, the people of Northeast Japan experienced the darkest and longest six minutes of their lives as a 9.0 magnitude earthquake shook their homes, setting off a chain of catastrophic events that killed 15,703 people and destroyed $300 billion worth of properties.
Let us remember the key events that unfolded on those fateful days, which began on March 11, 2011.
PAGASA Weather Forecaster Samuel Duran said we can expect good weather conditions today. The weak northeast monsoon continues to affect the extreme Northern Luzon, making the whole country experience sunny and partly cloudy weather.
Duran said that upon monitoring weather conditions outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, no weather disturbance has been observed. The average number of tropical cyclone for March is 0 to 1 due to the presence of easterlies. However thunderstorm activity will be apparent mostly on the eastern section of the country.
March is Women’s Month
National Women’s Month is now being observed all over the country with the theme “Juana, Desisyon Mo ay Mahalaga sa Kinabukasan ng Bawat Isa. Ikaw Na!”
In line with this, the Philippine Commission on Women (PCW), in partnership with Government Service Insurance System (GSIS), invited shutterbugs to join the nationwide photo contest showcasing the role of women in society.
The photo contest is open to all Filipino amateur photo enthusiasts. P10,000 cash prize awaits photographers of 12 selected photo entries.
See details below for more information.
The weak northeast monsoon affects eastern Visayas today.
Based on PAGASA’s latest weather forecast, Eastern Visayas, Davao region and CARAGA will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rains.
Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon can expect, at times, cloudy skies and isolated light rains.
On the other hand, the rest of Visayas and Mindanao will enjoy fair weather, apart from isolated cases of rains or thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, PAGASA Weather Forecaster Meno Mendoza shares that the expected monthly rainfall and average temperature in the Philippines this month will be below normal to normal range, particularly in the eastern sections of the country.
Temperatures in the mountainous areas of Luzon will still be slightly cooler, while the lowland areas can expect near normal temperatures, he added.
Visayas will have slightly warmer weather as Mindanao can expect near normal temperatures this March.
No weather disturbance is expected to threaten the Philippines within the next three days.
Today, the weak northeast monsoon brings, at times cloudy skies and isolated light rains, over the islands of Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan.
The remaining parts of the country, including Metro Manila, will have a fair weather apart from localized thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, March 20 marks the beginning of Spring in the Northern hemisphere with the vernal equinox.
The word “equinox” translates to “equal night”, wherein the Sun crosses directly over the Earth’s equator making the day and night almost equal in length all over the globe.
As the people in the north welcomes Spring, those below the equator, will experience lowering of temperatures as the autumnal equinox sets in.
This astronomical phenomenon occurs in the northern hemisphere every year –the vernal equinox around March 20 or 21 and the autumnal equinox during September 22 or 23. People south of the equator also experience the same in opposite dates.
No weather disturbance is being monitored within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). However, due to the tail end of a cold front affecting the eastern section of Southern Luzon and the northeast monsoon prevailing over Northern and Central Luzon, some parts of the country will still experience rains.
The tail end of a cold front is a weather system formed when the cold air mass dominates the warm air mass during wind convergence. It will bring cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and isolated thunderstorms over the Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas and Quezon province.
Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon, locally known as the amihan, will bring light rains over Cagayan Valley, Cordillera, the province of Aurora, Ilocos Region and the rest of Central Luzon. Metro Manila and the rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
Due to the surge of the amihan, gale warning is still up over the northern seaboard of Northern Luzon, the eastern seaboard of Northern and Central Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon and the Visayas. These include Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, the northern coasts of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte, Isabela, the eastern coast of Cagayan, and the provinces of Aurora and Camarines. Catanduanes, the eastern coasts of Albay, Sorsogon and Quezon, Polilio Island, Samar and Leyte. Sea travel is risky for fishing boats and other small seacraft.
Since the peak of the amihan has already ended, here’s a comparison of the lowest temperatures recorded during the last year’s and this year’s peak:
PAGASA Weather Forecaster Samuel Duran explained that recorded temperatures this year are slightly higher compared to 2014 due to the effect of the polar vortex which prevailed during the northern hemisphere’s winter season. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a polar vortex is a semi-permanent upper level circulation that normally resides near the north and south poles.
On the other hand, a cloud cluster was spotted outside the PAR but PAGASA Weather Forecaster Aldczar Aurelio said that it has a slim chance of affecting the country within the next three days. All are still advised to monitor updates from the weather bureau.