Though the Low Pressure Area (LPA), formerly Bagyong Amang, continues to bring light to moderate rains in the regions of Cagayan Valley and Cordillera, PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier says it is expected to dissipate within 24 hours. Afterwhich, the northeast monsoon will then prevail in Luzon.
Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will experience cloudy skies with light rains due to the said weather system. Visayas and Mindanao can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
With the strong surge of the northeast monsoon, PAGASA has issued a new gale warning. Rough to very rough sea conditions are expected in the seaboards of Northern Luzon. The agency advises against sea travel in the mentioned coasts in the following hours.
In other news, a magnitude 5.6 earthquake shook Simunul, Tawi-Tawi at 1:19 AM today. PHIVOLCS reported an intensity 4 in Simunul, Bongao and Panglima Sugala in Tawi-Tawi and in Siasi in Sulu. Intensity 3 was recorded in Languyan, Tawi-Tawi and in Maimbung, Sulu. Although there is no expected damage after the quake, aftershocks in the following hours may occur.
Eastern and Central Visayas and Mindanao will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and possible thunderstorms due to the trough or the extension of a low pressure area (LPA). The rest of Visayas will have fair weather apart from isolated cases of rains.
The northeast monsoon continues to prevail over Luzon, bringing cloudy skies with light rains in the regions of Cagayan Valley and Cordillera. As for Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, skies will be partly cloudy to at times cloudy with isolated light rains.
Meanwhile, the LPA is now estimated at 1,990 kms. east of Mindanao. State Meteorologist Buddy Javier says it is still expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Thursday.
Current data analysis shows a less probability of the LPA crossing the Visayas as compared to it moving towards Luzon before recurving to the northeast where it will weaken due to cold air intrusion. PAGASA implements continuous monitoring as significant changes may occur.
PAPAL VISIT WEATHER OUTLOOK
PAGASA releases a special weather outlook during Pope Francis’s visit covering January 13 to 19, 2015.
Starting January 13-17, Metro Manila is expected to have generally good weather condition aside from passing light rains due to the northeast monsoon. However, moderate to heavy rains are possible come Sunday, January 18, as the monitored weather disturbance is expected to move near the eastern side of Southern Luzon. By Monday, January 19, a rainy weather condition will continue in Metro Manila as the weather disturbance moves north and is expected to recurve in a northeast direction.
Meanwhile, in Tacloban, light to moderate rain showers are expected on Friday and Saturday (January 16-17). Thunderstorms are also likely to occur. This weather condition will continue on Sunday. Improved weather conditions are then expected by Monday.
Today is the “Pahalik,” wherein the Black Nazarene of the Quiapo Church is brought to Luneta to make it more accessible for devotees to kiss and touch. For those planning to attend the event, remember to bring your umbrellas. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Meno Mendoza, Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon may be affected by the northeast monsoon, resulting to partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains.
Meanwhile, CARAGA, Davao, and Northern Mindanao will experience light to moderate rains due to wind convergence or the boundary where the northeast monsoon and winds from the east meet.
The rest of the country, including Visayas, will have good weather condition today. Isolated rains and thunderstorms will be prevalent in the afternoon or evening.
The cloud clousters outside PAR (Philippine Area of Responsibility) has now developed into a low pressure area and has a possibility to enhance into a tropical cyclone.
But, good news from the weather bureau, the said weather disturbance will not affect any part of the country. Therefore, we may look forward to sunny days ahead.
Amihan (Northeast monsoon) until March
The termination of the northeast monsoon last season was on March 26, 2014. Mendoza says that most likely, this year’s amihan will also probably last until March. PAGASA will completely terminate the amihan season when the easterlies (another wind system from the east) becomes dominant.
The tail-end of a cold front now affects Mindanao, bringing cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers, particularly over the regions of Northern Mindanao, CARAGA and Central Visayas, as well in the provinces of Leyte and Negros Occidental.
Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will be experiencing fair weather conditions, apart from isolated light rains due to the prevailing northeast monsoon.
The remaining parts of Visayas and Mindanao can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms in the following hours.
Meanwhile, State Meteorologist Buddy Javier says that although the satellite shows a cluster of clouds outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, it has a low chance of developing into a low pressure area.
THE JANUARY NIGHT SKY
On this first week of 2015, the northern hemisphere night sky is favored by the first meteor shower of the year.
The annual Quadrantid meteor shower has been active since January 1 and will last until January 7. Peaking on the first weekend of the year, between midnight and dawn of January 3 and 4, a rate of at least 40 meteors per hour can be seen, says Engr. Dario Dela Cruz, PAGASA Space Sciences and Astronomy Section Chief.
However, the almost fully illuminated moon hinders the display this year, making visibility a challenge to avid skywatchers, except for a very short window of peak activity.
The said meteor shower was named after the extinct 17th century constellation Quadrans Muralis or the Wall Quadrant.
The Philippines remains bagyo-free on the first Monday of 2015. Weather forecaster Glaiza Escullar says in an interview that no weather disturbance has been monitored inside or outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Two weather systems remain to influence the country’s weather – the tail-end of a cold front in Eastern Visayas and the northeast monsoon prevailing in Luzon.
The tail-end of a cold front is the boundary between the northeasterlies and the easterlies. The convergence of the cold and dry air of the former and the warm and humid air of the latter generate cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers.
On the other hand, the northeast monsoon or amihan brings light rains over the regions of Cagayan Valley and Cordillera. Isolated rain showers can be experienced in Metro Manila and the remaining parts of Luzon. The rest of the country will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, PAGASA has not issued any gale warnings today after releasing the final advisory yesterday due to the weakened northeast monsoon.
AMIHAN: THE COLDEST DAYS
According to PAGASA, the peak months of the northeast monsoon are January and February when the lowest temperatures during the season are recorded.
In history, the lowest temperature ever recorded in the Philippines was in Baguio City on January 18, 1961 with 6.3 degrees Celsius.
Metro Manila, which has three stations, recorded the lowest temperatures ranging from 14.5 to 14.9 degrees Celsius as shown below:
Before 2014 officially ended last night, Seniang further weakened and became a low pressure area (LPA). At 4:00AM today, it was estimated at 210 kilometers south-southeast of Puerto Princesa City. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Chris Perez, it is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight or tomorrow.
Aside from the LPA, the tail end of a cold front, which is formed when the cold air mass dominates the warm air, will affect the Bicol Region. Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon or amihan, characterized by cold and dry air coming from Siberia or Mainland China, will prevail over Northern and Central Luzon. PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier explained that the LPA has weakened due to the effect of amihan or cold intrusion, which is not favorable for the intensification of a tropical cyclone.
As we welcome the first day of a brand new year, some parts of the archipelago will experience rains mostly over Southern Palawan, where the LPA may dump moderate to occasionally heavy rain showers and thunderstorms. Bicol Region, the rest of MIMAROPA and the province of Quezon will have cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms.
Cagayan Valley and Cordillera will experience light rains while Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains. Improved weather will continue over Visayas and Mindanao, with possible isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
Gale warning is still up over the seaboards of Northern, Central and Southern Luzon, and the seaboards of Visayas. These areas will experience rough to very rough sea conditions with wave height ranging from 3.4 to 4.5 meters. Sea travel is risky for fishing boats and other small seacraft.
PAGASA added that no other weather disturbance is being monitored outside the PAR. However, all are still advised to monitor updates from the weather bureau.
As we begin the countdown to ending another year, we take a look at the weather events that made 2014 memorable, weather-wise.
Situation: Tropical Cyclones
This year, a total of 19 tropical cyclones entered the PAR (Philippine Area of Responsibility).
The first was Agaton, which made its entry last January 17. Though it was identified as a Tropical Depression, the lowest category for cyclones, Agaton caused severe flooding in Eastern Visayas, Northern Mindanao and the CARAGA region.
According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC), 244,344 families were affected in more than a thousand villages in 16 provinces. There were at least 1,147 houses destroyed and more than one thousand partially damaged. All in all, damages in infrastructure and agriculture were estimated at more than 500 million pesos.
Trending Typhoons
From the 19 tropical cyclones that entered PAR, 10 were under the Typhoon category with wind speeds of 118 to 220 kilometers per hour.
1. Domeng
2. Florita
3. Glenda
4. Henry
5. Jose
6. Luis
7. Paeng
8. Neneng
9. 0mpong
10. Ruby
From these 10 typhoons, Ompong and Ruby could be categorized as Super Typhoons.
Entering PAR on October 7 and making its exit on October 11, Ompong, with international name Vongfong, was classified by the U.S Joint Typhoon Warning Center as a Category 5 Super Typhoon.
Packing maximum sustained winds of 215 kilometers per hour and gustiness of 250 kilometers per hour, Ompong—thankfully— did not hit the country as it re-curved towards Mainland Japan.
Related articles: Gazing into the Eye of 2014’s Strongest Typhoon
Strongest Typhoon for 2014 still inside PH
But Typhoon Ruby was totally different story. With the fitting “Hagupit” as its international name, Ruby entered the country’s boundary on December 3 and made its way out on December 11. With maximum sustained winds of 215 kilometers per hour and gustiness of 250 kilometers per hour, Ompong made five landfalls.
First landfall: Dolores, Eastern Samar
Second landfall: Cataingan, Masbate
Third landfall: Torrijos, Masbate
Fourth landfall: Laiya, Batangas
Fifth landfall: Lubang, Island
The NDRRMC filed a total of more than four million residents affected in Regions III, IV-A, IV-B, V, VI, VII, VIII, CARAGA and the National Capital Region. 18 deaths were recorded while injured persons reached up to 916. Ruby damaged mostly infrastructure and agriculture—the total cost amounting to more than 5 billion peos.
Due to its devastating impact, a state of calamity was declared in San Pablo City in Laguna, Batangas, Albay, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Masbate, Naga City, Juaban and Gubat in Sorsogon, Sorsogon City, Aklan; Maayon, Dumalag and Panay in Capiz; and Northern and Eastern Samar.
Because fatal storm surges brought by Typhoon Yolanda in 2013 made the public more aware of this weather phenomenon, Ruby kept Filipinos on their toes.
Coincidentally, while Ruby was inside PAR, an astronomical event happened. This was the Full Moon phase, which caused higher tidal variations due to our satellite’s strong gravitational pull.
Weather forecaster Chris Perez explained that higher waves were expected due to the combination of storm surge and the effects of the Full Moon.
Watch the Interview: Storm Tide
Scorching Season
PAGASA officially announced the start of the Hot and Dry season last March 26. Easterlies, the prevailing wind system during this time, brought hot and humid weather to the country.
Aside from the easterlies, this season’s indicators included the presence of the High Pressure Area (HPA), which brings good weather conditions, the termination of the northeast monsoon, and the increase in temperatures.
Upon the onset of the Hot and Dry season, the country undeniably experienced a number of scorching days that were especially evident in the Luzon area.
In March, Tuguegarao recorded a maximum temperature of 37.9 degrees Celsius. But its days got hotter in April and May, which brought in temperatures of 39 degrees and 39.8 degrees consecutively.
Meanwhile, the Science Garden in Quezon City documented a high of 36.7 degrees Celsius in May.
The Unpredictable El Niño
Within this year, the El Niño phenomenon became a hot topic during the hot season as PAGASA continued to monitor the ups and down of sea surface temperature.
From April 21 to 28, PAGASA recorded a substantial increase in the sea surface temperature anomaly from 0.2 to 0.4 degree Celsius. It was then forecast that El Niño might reach its peak in the last quarter of 2014.
But with the recent report from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, only weak El Nino conditions were observed in November and December.
Here comes the rain!
The rainy season in the country officially started in June 10. Before declaring the onset of this season, PAGASA first made sure that the following requirements were met:
• Daily thunderstorm activity
• Prevailing southwest monsoon
• 5-day period with a total rainfall of 25 millimeters or more in three consecutive days.
Come on, Amihan!
The Amihan season was officially declared by PAGASA on October 16. The northeast monsoon or amihan is the prevailing wind system, bringing light rains to its affected areas. It also has cold and dry characteristics, resulting to colder mornings.
At this time of the year, a gradual decrease in temperatures was observed in different parts of the country.
Winter Solstice
Winter season in the northern hemisphere officially started on December 22 this year. This also signaled the start of experiencing longer nights and shorter days in the Philippines.
During the winter solstice, the northern hemisphere leans the farthest distance from the Sun, causing longer nights and lower temperatures for those in the northern hemisphere. The opposite happens in the southern hemisphere where people experience the longest day.
Related article: Winter has arrived
Although a lot has happened this year, there’s more to come this 2015. So brace yourself for those inevitable storms, but remember to keep to the sunny side of the street. With all the changes the weather brings, one thing stays the same: the Filipino brand of resilience that knows no bounds.
Rains will be concentrated over Eastern Visayas and the Bicol Region where cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms are expected. These rains are brought by the diffused tail end of a cold front, a weather system that occurs when the cold air mass dominates the warm air mass during convergence. Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon or amihan continues to blow through Northern and Central Luzon.
Cagayan Valley, Cordillera, and the provinces of Aurora and Quezon will have cloudy skies with light rains, while the rest of Northern and Central Luzon will experience isolated light rains. Metro Manila and the rest of the country can look forward to generally fair weather with a chance of isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
For sea travelers, gale warning is up over the seaboards of Northern and Southern Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon. These areas will experience rough to very rough sea conditions due to the surge of amihan. Coastal waters in the rest of the country will be moderate to rough.
Amihan peaks in January
Amihan, characterized as cold and dry air blowing from mainland China or Siberia, began to affect the Philippines last October 16, 2014. However, during the ber months, it’s still not completely felt all over the country. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Jori Loiz, this wind system will peak on January wherein the ocean has lower thermal capacity, which means it cannot absorb much heat. Minimum temperatures are usually recorded during this month.
PAGASA monitored three weather systems affecting the country today. The northeast monsoon or amihan is affecting Northern Luzon while the tail end of a cold front is affecting Eastern Visayas. Meanwhile, the trough of low pressure area (LPA) is still affecting Southern Luzon.
According to PAGASA weather forecaster Alvin Pura, only the trough or the extension of LPA is affecting the said area, but the LPA alone is outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and has a slim chance of entering the boundary.
Today, the Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanano will have cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms. Light rains will be experienced in Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos Region.
Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will have fair weather conditions. Isolated rains are still expected in the afternoon or evening.
Lowest Temperature in Quezon City
Throughout the amihan season, Quezon City has recorded its lowest temperature today. As of 5 AM, temperature dropped to 20.8 degree Celsius.
Pura said that an even lower temperature might be experienced in the next coming days.
