After the preparations for All Saints’ and All Souls’ Days, one must also be prepared for what November weather will bring. Here are the top 3 things you should know about the 11th month of the year!

1. Not so cool, not so wet
With the El Niño phenomenon solidly in place, we can expect reduced rainfall in most parts of the country. Latest reports from PAGASA and other international meteorological agencies have observed evidences that this year’s El Niño may be one of the strongest in history. It is more likely to continue until the end of this year, and might last up to June 2016. If we look at the forecast for November’s rainfall, the western part of Northern and Central Luzon may experience way-below normal rainfall, while most parts of the country may have below-normal amount of rain.

The El Niño may also bring a continuous rise in temperature, along with hotter and more humid weather. Being just a month before Christmas, November may not be as cold as what we’re used to. The northeast monsoon has yet to intensify because its peak usually occurs during January or February.

Meanwhile, based on the forecast of PAGASA, the highest number of dry days may be experienced in the eastern section of Luzon with a range of 26 to 31 days or almost the entire month.

2. A chance of a weather disturbance
Different weather systems are expected to affect the country this month. These include the northeast monsoon, tail end of a cold front, easterlies, ITCZ, low pressure area (LPA) and tropical cyclone.

The northeast monsoon, locally known as “amihan,” will prevail particularly over the areas in Luzon. Amihan will reach the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) once the high pressure system over Mainland China or Siberia intensifies. Aside from light rains, it will bring slightly cold and dry weather to the affected areas. However, its surge may not be strong yet.

The Tail End of a Cold Front is the extended part of a frontal system. A Cold Front is a boundary of cold and warm air masses. This weather system could result to rains and thunderstorms due to the convective clouds.

Easterlies are winds coming from the Pacific Ocean, and are warm and humid in nature. It may bring warmer weather but could also trigger thunderstorms mostly in the eastern section of the country. Remember, heat is a key ingredient for thunderstorm formation.

The Intertropical Convergence zone (ITCZ) may still be present so a Low Pressure Area could also be formed. An LPA may then develop into a tropical cyclone or “bagyo”.

According to PAGASA, an average number of 1 to 2 cyclones may enter the PAR this month, with a chance of making a landfall or re-curvature.

3. Get ready, sky watchers!
The Leonids Meteor Shower is expected to show up in the sky this November. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) says it is called such since it seems to originate from the constellation “Leo”.

It will be active on November 5 until the end of the month, with peak activity on November 17 to 18 this year. If weather permits, one can observe around 15 meteors per hour at a speed of 71 kilometers per second.

Did you know?
In an average of every 33 years, the Earth may experience a Leonid Meteor Storm. Compared to a shower, it is defined as having at least 1,000 meteors per hour.

In 1966, viewers were able to witness a spectacular Leonid Storm where thousands of meteors fell through the atmosphere. NASA says the last Leonid Meteor Storm occurred in 2002.

Mentioned above is just an overview of what may happen this month. The weather and sky conditions continuously change so make it a habit to monitor updates.

Sources:

PAGASA-DOST
NASA

Last October, we met Neneng, Ompong and Paeng but thankfully, none of these tropical cyclones hit Philippine landmass. The previous month also marked the onset of the northeast monsoon or amihan, bringing chillier early mornings.

Now that we have entered a new month, here are some important things to know about November weather:

1. The rainy season will continue.

Many have wondered if the official rainy season ended now that the amihan has started to affect the country. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Jori Loiz, the rainy season is almost over only in the western section including Zambales, Bataan and Metro Manila (areas under Climate Type I). These areas have received rains brought by the southwest monsoon or habagat that prevailed during the past few months.

Due to the northeast monsoon or amihan, rainfall this month will be concentrated mostly over the eastern section of the country. However, PAGASA Weather Forecaster Manny Mendoza said that most areas of Mindanao will also experience rainy weather brought by the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

According to PAGASA, most areas in Luzon and Visayas will receive a generally below-normal rainfall while near-normal rainfall conditions will be experienced in Cagayan, Camarines Norte, Albay, Eastern and Central Visayas, and Mindanao.

2. Tropical cyclones will have a higher chance of hitting landmass.

An average of two or three tropical cyclones normally enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during the month of November. A higher chance of landfall is expected due to the effect of the amihan.

According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Aldczar Aurelio, Visayas provinces are usually hit by tropical cyclones at this time because the amihan tends to drive the tropical cyclones towards the landmass.

3. Various weather systems will take center stage.

The dominant weather systems that will prevail within PAR are the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), tail end of a cold front, amihan, possible low pressure area and tropical cyclones.

ITCZ is an area where air masses from the northern and southern hemispheres meet while the tail end of a cold front is the convergence of cold and warm air masses. Since converging winds result to cloudiness, both weather systems are expected to bring rain showers and thunderstorms over the affected areas.

Northeast Monsoon, on the other hand, is cold and dry air coming from the mainland China, responsible for the “malamig na simoy ng hangin” as the Christmas Season approaches.

Meanwhile, a possible formation of low pressure area could occur due to the active ITCZ. Once an LPA develops, it could intensify as a tropical cyclone or ”bagyo”.