The northeast monsoon or amihan, characterized as cold and dry air coming from Mainland China, continues to prevail over Northern Luzon. The tail end of a cold front will also prevail over Central and Southern Luzon. This weather system occurs when the cold air dominates the warm air mass during convergence.
Meanwhile, the trough or the extended cloudiness of a low pressure area (LPA) will affect Mindanao. PAGASA Weather Forecaster Jun Galang said that as the LPA moves in a westward direction, there is a slim chance for it to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).Continuous monitoring will be done since the clouds of the said LPA are already disorganized.
This Wednesday, rainfall will be concentrated over Metro Manila, Rizal, Aurora, Quezon, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas and Mindanao. These areas will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms. The regions of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos will be cloudy with light rains while the rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
Strong winds associated with the surge of amihan will bring rough to very rough sea conditions over the northern seaboard of Northern Luzon, western seaboard of Northern and Central Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Northern and Central Luzon. Sea travel is risky over Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, the northern coast of Cagayan. Ilocos, La Union, Pangasinan, Bataan, Zambales, Isabela, and the eastern coasts of Cagayan and Aurora.
Simbang Gabi Forecast
“Simbang Gabi” or “Misa de Gallo” began yesterday, the 16th of December. Here’s a special weather forecast for those who are going to attend the anticipated mass this evening.
The cloud cluster being monitored by PAGASA has already developed into a weather disturbance. At 4:00 AM today, the low pressure area (LPA) was estimated at 220 kilometers east of Surigao City. PAGASA Weather Forecaster Glaiza Escullar said it has a slim chance of developing into a tropical cyclone as it moves closer to cross the southern part of Visayas and Northern Mindanao today. The LPA could dissipate within the next 24 hours.
Aside from the LPA, the tail end of a cold front, wherein the cold air mass dominates the warm air during convergence, will also affect Central Luzon. On the other hand, the northeast monsoon or amihan, characterized as cold and dry air coming from Siberia, continues to prevail over the Northern Luzon. These weather systems are expected to bring rains over some parts of the country.
Central Luzon, Eastern Visayas and CARAGA will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms. The regions of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos will have cloudy skies with light rains. Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
Due to the surge of amihan, gale warning remains over the seaboards of Northern Luzon, which include Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Cagayan, Isabela. Ilocos, La Union and Pangasinan. Fishing boats and other small seacraft are prohibited from venturing out due to the rough to very rough sea conditions.
Amihan also brings a slight temperature drop over the north. Basco, Batanes felt a chilly morning yesterday with a temperature of 15.6 degrees Celsius. Below are the lowest temperatures recorded by PAGASA yesterday, on the 15th of December.
The cloud clusters being monitored this weekend is now inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
State meteorologist Buddy Javier says in an interview with PanahonTV this morning that the said clouds have not yet developed into a low pressure area. However, continuous monitoring will be implemented as these are forecast to move closer to our landmass and bring rains in the eastern section of Visayas and Mindanao.
Today, the tail-end of a cold front will bring light to moderate rain showers in the provinces of Aurora, Quezon and Palawan. Meanwhile, light rains will be experienced in Northern Luzon, particularly over the regions of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos due to the northeast monsoon. The rest of the country, including Metro Manila, can expect fair weather conditions apart from localized rain showers or thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, rough to very rough sea condition is expected over the seaboards of Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, the northern and eastern coast of Cagayan, the northern coast of Ilocos Norte and Isabela as well as the eastern seaboards of Aurora, Zambales and Bataan. The agency advises against sea travel in the mentioned coasts due to the strong to gale force winds associated with the northeast monsoon surge.
TRIVIA OF THE DAY
As we count 10 more days until Christmas, many Catholics prepare to attend the Simbang Gabi starting tomorrow at dawn. Simbang gabi, also known as Misa de Gallo, is a Filipino Christmas tradition practiced by Roman Catholics in anticipation of the birth of Jesus Christ.
Originating from the days of Spanish rule, it is a 9-day series of masses from December 16 to 24, the last of which is the midnight mass.
Most Filipinos believe that if a devotee completes the nine days of the Simbang Gabi, a request or wish will be granted. After the mass, churchgoers would buy and eat traditional delicacies such as bibingka and puto bumbong sold in the food stalls in the churchyard.
After days of monitoring Tropical Cyclone Hagupit, locally named Ruby, the Philippines is free from any weather disturbance inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
However, a low pressure area, estimated at 1,040 kms east of Mindanao, threatens to enter PAR within 24 hours.
State meteorologist Buddy Javier says it has a slim chance of intensifying into a cyclone. However, continuous monitoring will still be implemented for any significant changes that may occur.
Meanwhile, the regions of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos will experience isolated light rains and partly cloudy to at times cloudy skies due to the prevailing northeast monsoon or Amihan.
On the other hand, Metro Manila and the rest of the archipelago can expect fair weather conditions today, apart from isolated thunderstorms.
Sea condition is moderate to rough throughout the archipelago, apart from the seaboards of Northern Luzon, where the seas are going to be rough to very rough. Strong to gale force winds are also expected to affect the mentioned seaboards due to the surge of the northeast monsoon.
ATTENTION: SKYGAZERS
The annual Geminids meteor shower is near peaking. On the night of December 14 (Sunday until the early morning hours of December 15 (Monday), we, folks here in the Philippines, will get to see an average of 40 meteors or “falling stars” per hour.
Active since December 4 until til December 17, the Geminids meteors originate not from a comet, but from an asteroid identified as 3200 Phaethon. It is considered to be one of the finest meteor showers this year.
The Geminids are also known as fireball meteors. These are bright and fast meteors which can persist longer than the usual meteor streak since the fireballs come from larger particles of material.
PAGASA’s Chief of Space Sciences and Astronomy Section Engr. Dario L. Dela Cruz says meteors from this shower are very rocky and gritty and slightly easier to see compared to the other showers.
For first-timers, the best way to view the Geminids meteor shower is under a dark, cloudless sky. No need for special equipment; just find a place away from the city or bright lights. Let your eyes adjust to the dark and take in as much of the sky.
As Ruby makes its way outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), a new low pressure area (LPA) is being monitored by PAGASA. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Jun Galang, the LPA was located at 1,500 kilometers east-southeast of Mindanao. Based on available data, the LPA has a slim chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. It is expected to enter PAR on Friday, Galang added.
Today, areas in Northern Luzon, particularly Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos Region will experience cold weather with light rains due to the northeast mosoon or hanging amihan.
With the continuous surge of the amihan, PAGASA issued a gale warning over the seaboards of Northern Luzon and along the western seaboard of Central Luzon. This includes Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Cagayan, Isabela, Ilocos Provinces, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales and Bataan. Due to strong to gale force winds, rough to very rough sea conditions are expected in the said areas.
Meanwhile, weather in Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao is expected to improve. Only isolated rains and thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon or evening.
Lowest Temperature dropped to 15 degree Celsius
Because the amihan is the prevailing wind system in the country, this results to cold weather especially in areas situated in Northern Luzon.
According to PAGASA, the amihan usually peaks in the month of January or February. The temperatures below will gradually decrease in the coming days.
Typhoon Haiyan,last year locally named Yolanda, which wreaked havoc in Eastern Visayas last year, remains to be the strongest typhoon, bearing maximum sustained winds of 235 kph. However, Typhoon Ruby now holds the title of being the longest-staying typhoon inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this year.
State Weather Forecaster Meno Mendoza says Ruby beats the 5-day record of Typhoon Henry back in July this year. Today is Ruby’s fifth day in PAR, and is now expected to exit our area of responsibility on Thursday morning instead of the earlier forecasted Tuesday.
The said typhoon further weakens as it continues to cross the archipelago, packing winds of 120 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 150 kph. It is now traversing the Sibuyan Sea at a speed of 10 kph moving in a west northwest direction.
After hitting Dolores, Eastern Samar late Saturday and Masbate yesterday morning, Ruby is expected to make landfall in northern Mindoro tonight, between 6 to 8 in the evening. Residents living in the said province are advised against moderate to heavy rainfall, strong winds and possible storm surge generated by the typhoon.
Public Storm Warning Signals as of this morning:
Areas under Signals Number two and three will experience stormy weather. Occurrence of a storm surge 1 to 2 meters high is possible in the coastal areas.
The remaining areas of Luzon and Visayas not included in the warning signals can expect rainy weather. Mindanao will experience improved weather conditions although thunderstorm formation is still possible in the following hours.
Metro Manila, on the other hand, can expect to feel the effects of the typhoon once it makes landfall in Northern Mindoro tonight. Residents can expect moderate to occasional heavy rains as it is the closest distance the typhoon will be from the metro.
Meanwhile, Malacanang announces the suspension of work in government agencies in the National Capital Region and in Southern Luzon today. Offices whose work involves the delivery of health services and disaster response are exempted.
Typhoon Ruby is expected to make its landfall over Dolores, Eastern Samar tonight between 8-10 PM. Residents in said areas are advised against strong winds, heavy to intense rainfall and storm surges up to 4.5 meters in height.
PAGASA Weather Forecaster Chris Perez says that if Ruby continues to move westward at 10 kph, after crossing Samar Provinces it would traverse the landmass of Ticao Island, Masbate and Romblon within 48 hours.
The Ridge of High Pressure Area influenced the movement of Typhoon Ruby, allowing it to dump more rains over the Visayas areas and portions of Southern Luzon and Northern Mindanao.
As of 1 PM today, Ruby was located at 230 kilometers East of Catarman, Northern Samar with maximum sustained winds of 185 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 220 kph.
Public Storm Warning Signal
Public Storm Warning Signals (PSWS) are being raised as Typhoon Ruby moves in closer to the landmass.
Threat of Storm Surge
Perez explained that coastal areas under Signals no. 3 and 2 are more prone to the possibility of storm surges.
However, the 4.5-meter wave height is not expected in all coastal areas. Perez says the height of storm surge depends on the coastal bathymetry, or as National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) refers to “ocean’s depths that is relative to sea level or the depths and shape of underwater terrains.”
High storm surges are most likely to happen in coastal areas with shallow bathymetry.
Full moon and Storm Surge= STORM TIDE
Tonight, the moon will be on its Full Moon phase when the Moon, Earth and Sun are in near alignment. During this phase, the Moon is at the opposite side of the Earth, its entire illuminated part facing us.
The Full moon has a strong gravitational pull that can affect tidal variations. Because of the Full Moon, Perez says there is a possible occurrence of “storm tide,” which can generate higher waves than storm surges. Storm tide happens with the combined effect of the Full Moon and a storm surge.
Typhoon Ruby has maintained its strength while nearing the landmass of Eastern Samar. At 10 AM today, Ruby was located at 435 kilometers east of Borongan, Eastern Samar, packing winds of 215 kph near its center and gustiness of about 250 kph.
Within 24 hours, Ruby is expected to be at 120 kilometers east-northeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar. PAGASA weather forecaster Chris Perez said Ruby is forecast to make landfall between the Northern and Eastern Samar tomorrow evening.
Categorized as a Super Typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), storm surges of up to 5 meters over the eastern portion of Samar, Bicol and Surigao are expected.
Heavy to intense rainfall (7.2 to 20mm) is also expected within the 700-kilometer diameter of Ruby. Though Metro Manila will not be hit directly by the eye of the typhoon, its cloud bands will bring heavy to intense rains with gusty winds. The weather bureau added that there is a possibility of raising a Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) once it affects Metro Manila.
Chris said from the press briefing held at PAGASA Weather and Flood Forecasting Center, Ruby may maintain its 250 kilometer radius while crossing the landmass of the Philippines. This means, Ruby will dumped rains over areas within the said radius.
Yolanda Vs. Ruby
Chris explained, in comparison to Super Typhoon Yolanda with 30 plus kph, Ruby is moving in a slower pace with 13 kph. With this scenario, rains will be more concentrated over a certain area that may results to flooding.
Weather Today
Today, aside from Ruby, the northeast monsoon will also bring light rains in Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and the Ilocos Region.
Meanwhile stormy weather is expected in the next 24 hours over Eastern Visayas, the CARAGA Region, Sorsogon, Masbate, and Northern Cebu, including Cebu City and the islands of Bantayan, Camotes and Ticao.
The rest of Visayas and the Bicol Region, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin and Romblon will experience rains with gusty winds. Metro Manila and the rest of the country will experience light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms for the next hours.
Public Storm Warning Signal
Storm warning signals are now being raised by PAGASAto warn people living in areas likely to be affected by Ruby.
Signal no. 2: Winds of 61-100 kph are expected in at least 24 hours. Few large trees may be uprooted and a large number of nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed.
Signal no. 1: Winds of 30-60 kph are expected in at least 36 hours. Banana plants may tilt or land flat on the ground, rice in flowering stage may suffer significant damage and sea travel of small seacraft and fishing boats is risky.
PAGASA is currently monitoring a new cloud cluster east of Mindanao, outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). State weather forecaster Buddy Javier says it has a possibility of developing into a Low Pressure Area within 48 hours. Easterlies still prevail over the eastern section of Mindanao, bringing possible thunderstorms late in the afternoon or evening.
Meanwhile, the Bicol Region and Samar province will experience light to moderate rain showers due to the tail-end of a cold front affecting Southern Luzon. Metro Manila and the remaining part of the country will experience fair weather .
Good news to our fishermen: no gale warning has been issued today. Sea travel is safe in all seaboards in the following hours.
DECEMBER: WHAT TO EXPECT
As we’re down to the last week of November, here’s a sneak preview of what to expect, weather-wise, this December.
The northeast monsoon or hanging amihan will continue to bring lower temperatures, especially in the northern regions of the country.
With this, the formation of a tail-end of a cold front is generally possible in the eastern section of Luzon as the easterlies prevail over the eastern section of Visayas and Mindanao. When it comes to tropical cyclones, an average of 1 to 2 is expected to enter PAR.
Be informed. Get the latest weather updates on PanahonTV’s social media accounts.