2015 is here! Another year, another set of goals. But before we outline our plans for the new year, let us first familiarize ourselves with this month’s weather.
1) Rains won’t go away yet.
This month marks the start of another year but rainy days won’t end yet for some areas of the country. PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier said the northeast monsoon or amihan and the tail end of a cold front will be dominant. Amihan is cold and dry air coming from Mainland China or Siberia, bringing light rains mostly over Northern and Central Luzon.
Meanwhile, the tail end of a cold front refers to the extended part of a cold front which is formed when the cold air mass dominates the warm air mass during a convergence. Javier added that at this time, Southern Luzon usually experiences cloudy skies, as well as light and moderate to occasionally heavy rain showers and thunderstorms. However, the tail end of a cold front can recede or move, depending on the strength of amihan.
2) January’s not totally “bagyo-free”.
According to PAGASA, the average number of tropical cyclones that usually enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this month is 0 to 1. This means that there is still a chance for us to experience stormy weather even in the first month of the year.
Climatologically speaking, a cyclone that may enter the PAR could cross the archipelago or make landfall, particularly over the Visayas area. It is also possible for it to re-curve, moving away from the landmass. The surge of the northeast monsoon or amihan influences its movement.
3) The much awaited sweater-weather is here.
Amihan peaks this month, bringing colder weather mostly over Luzon. Minimum temperatures are usually recorded during this chilly part of the year. One of the significant amihan-related events happened on January 18, 1961 when Baguio City’s temperature dropped to 6.3 degrees Celsius.
The Philippines remains bagyo-free on the first Monday of 2015. Weather forecaster Glaiza Escullar says in an interview that no weather disturbance has been monitored inside or outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Two weather systems remain to influence the country’s weather – the tail-end of a cold front in Eastern Visayas and the northeast monsoon prevailing in Luzon.
The tail-end of a cold front is the boundary between the northeasterlies and the easterlies. The convergence of the cold and dry air of the former and the warm and humid air of the latter generate cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers.
On the other hand, the northeast monsoon or amihan brings light rains over the regions of Cagayan Valley and Cordillera. Isolated rain showers can be experienced in Metro Manila and the remaining parts of Luzon. The rest of the country will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, PAGASA has not issued any gale warnings today after releasing the final advisory yesterday due to the weakened northeast monsoon.
AMIHAN: THE COLDEST DAYS
According to PAGASA, the peak months of the northeast monsoon are January and February when the lowest temperatures during the season are recorded.
In history, the lowest temperature ever recorded in the Philippines was in Baguio City on January 18, 1961 with 6.3 degrees Celsius.
Metro Manila, which has three stations, recorded the lowest temperatures ranging from 14.5 to 14.9 degrees Celsius as shown below:
As of 1:00 AM today, the low pressure area (LPA) has exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). This LPA was the former Seniang, the last tropical cyclone that entered the PAR last year. Meanwhile, two weather systems will affect the country today, including the tail end of a cold front and the northeast monsoon or amihan that prevails over Luzon.
Due to the gradual intensification of amihan, the tail end of a cold front slightly moved downward, bringing cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms over Eastern Visayas. Amihan, characterized by cold and dry air coming from Mainland China or Siberia, will bring light rains over the Bicol Region, Cagayan Valley, Cordillera, CALABARZON and MIMAROPA. Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated light rains while the rest of the country will have generally fair weather aside from isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
Sea travel is still risky in the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon, and the Visayas, as well as the eastern, western and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon. Wave height could reach up to 3.4 to 4.5 meters, with wind force ranging from 52 to 63 kilometers per hour.
PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier said that this month, the average number of tropical cyclones that may enter PAR is 0 to 1. A cyclone normally moves towards Visayas but there will be an instance that it may also re-curve upward, away from the landmass.
Cold weather greeted the new year yesterday. Here are the 5 lowest temperatures recorded on the 1st day of 2015:
This morning, PAGASA Weather Forecaster Jori Loiz shared that Baguio City’s temperature dropped to 11°C at 2:00 AM while 20.3°C was recorded at the PAGASA Science Garden in Quezon City.
As amihan peaks this month, the minimum temperatures and colder days are usually felt during this part of the year. However, aside from the chill, this weather system will also bring light rains over the affected areas.
Before 2014 officially ended last night, Seniang further weakened and became a low pressure area (LPA). At 4:00AM today, it was estimated at 210 kilometers south-southeast of Puerto Princesa City. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Chris Perez, it is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight or tomorrow.
Aside from the LPA, the tail end of a cold front, which is formed when the cold air mass dominates the warm air, will affect the Bicol Region. Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon or amihan, characterized by cold and dry air coming from Siberia or Mainland China, will prevail over Northern and Central Luzon. PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier explained that the LPA has weakened due to the effect of amihan or cold intrusion, which is not favorable for the intensification of a tropical cyclone.
As we welcome the first day of a brand new year, some parts of the archipelago will experience rains mostly over Southern Palawan, where the LPA may dump moderate to occasionally heavy rain showers and thunderstorms. Bicol Region, the rest of MIMAROPA and the province of Quezon will have cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms.
Cagayan Valley and Cordillera will experience light rains while Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains. Improved weather will continue over Visayas and Mindanao, with possible isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
Gale warning is still up over the seaboards of Northern, Central and Southern Luzon, and the seaboards of Visayas. These areas will experience rough to very rough sea conditions with wave height ranging from 3.4 to 4.5 meters. Sea travel is risky for fishing boats and other small seacraft.
PAGASA added that no other weather disturbance is being monitored outside the PAR. However, all are still advised to monitor updates from the weather bureau.
On the last day of this year, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astonomical Services Administration (PAGASA) continues to monitorTropical Storm Seniang with international name Jangmi. It was locatedat 245 kilometers south southeast of Cuyo, Palawan at 9:00 AM today.
It has weakened into a tropical depression with maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour.
With its continuous movement in a west-southwest direction at 13 kilometers per hour, Seniang is expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday, January 2, 2015.
Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 is up over Palawan where winds of 30 to 60 kilometers per hour are expected. Residents are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.
The combined effect of the northeast monsoon or amihan and the winds
associated with Seniang will bring rough to very rough sea conditions in the seaboards of Northern, Central and Southern Luzon and Visayas. Fishing boats and other small seacraft are still prohibited from venturing out into the mentioned seas.
Palawan will experience rains with gusty winds. Cloudy skies will dump light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms over Visayas, Bicol Region and the provinces of Quezon, Mindoro and Marinduque. Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will experience light rains, while Mindanao will have improved weather. Still, partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms are expected.
PAGASA issues special weather outlook for New Year
Based on the outlook, rains will continue on the first day of 2015. Seniang may bring rains with gusty winds over Palawan, while the Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Western Visayas and the provinces of Mindoro, Marinduque and Romblon will have cloudy skies with light to moderate
rain showers and thunderstorms. Metro Manila and Central Luzon will be cloudy with light rains and the rest of the country will have a generally fair weather aside from the isolated cases of rain showers or thunderstorms.
Changes may still occur depending on the weather systems that will prevail within the PAR. All are advised to monitor updates.
As we begin the countdown to ending another year, we take a look at the weather events that made 2014 memorable, weather-wise.
Situation: Tropical Cyclones
This year, a total of 19 tropical cyclones entered the PAR (Philippine Area of Responsibility).
The first was Agaton, which made its entry last January 17. Though it was identified as a Tropical Depression, the lowest category for cyclones, Agaton caused severe flooding in Eastern Visayas, Northern Mindanao and the CARAGA region.
According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC), 244,344 families were affected in more than a thousand villages in 16 provinces. There were at least 1,147 houses destroyed and more than one thousand partially damaged. All in all, damages in infrastructure and agriculture were estimated at more than 500 million pesos.
Trending Typhoons
From the 19 tropical cyclones that entered PAR, 10 were under the Typhoon category with wind speeds of 118 to 220 kilometers per hour.
1. Domeng
2. Florita
3. Glenda
4. Henry
5. Jose
6. Luis
7. Paeng
8. Neneng
9. 0mpong
10. Ruby
From these 10 typhoons, Ompong and Ruby could be categorized as Super Typhoons.
Entering PAR on October 7 and making its exit on October 11, Ompong, with international name Vongfong, was classified by the U.S Joint Typhoon Warning Center as a Category 5 Super Typhoon.
Packing maximum sustained winds of 215 kilometers per hour and gustiness of 250 kilometers per hour, Ompong—thankfully— did not hit the country as it re-curved towards Mainland Japan.
Related articles: Gazing into the Eye of 2014’s Strongest Typhoon
Strongest Typhoon for 2014 still inside PH
But Typhoon Ruby was totally different story. With the fitting “Hagupit” as its international name, Ruby entered the country’s boundary on December 3 and made its way out on December 11. With maximum sustained winds of 215 kilometers per hour and gustiness of 250 kilometers per hour, Ompong made five landfalls.
First landfall: Dolores, Eastern Samar
Second landfall: Cataingan, Masbate
Third landfall: Torrijos, Masbate
Fourth landfall: Laiya, Batangas
Fifth landfall: Lubang, Island
The NDRRMC filed a total of more than four million residents affected in Regions III, IV-A, IV-B, V, VI, VII, VIII, CARAGA and the National Capital Region. 18 deaths were recorded while injured persons reached up to 916. Ruby damaged mostly infrastructure and agriculture—the total cost amounting to more than 5 billion peos.
Due to its devastating impact, a state of calamity was declared in San Pablo City in Laguna, Batangas, Albay, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Masbate, Naga City, Juaban and Gubat in Sorsogon, Sorsogon City, Aklan; Maayon, Dumalag and Panay in Capiz; and Northern and Eastern Samar.
Because fatal storm surges brought by Typhoon Yolanda in 2013 made the public more aware of this weather phenomenon, Ruby kept Filipinos on their toes.
Coincidentally, while Ruby was inside PAR, an astronomical event happened. This was the Full Moon phase, which caused higher tidal variations due to our satellite’s strong gravitational pull.
Weather forecaster Chris Perez explained that higher waves were expected due to the combination of storm surge and the effects of the Full Moon.
Watch the Interview: Storm Tide
Scorching Season
PAGASA officially announced the start of the Hot and Dry season last March 26. Easterlies, the prevailing wind system during this time, brought hot and humid weather to the country.
Aside from the easterlies, this season’s indicators included the presence of the High Pressure Area (HPA), which brings good weather conditions, the termination of the northeast monsoon, and the increase in temperatures.
Upon the onset of the Hot and Dry season, the country undeniably experienced a number of scorching days that were especially evident in the Luzon area.
In March, Tuguegarao recorded a maximum temperature of 37.9 degrees Celsius. But its days got hotter in April and May, which brought in temperatures of 39 degrees and 39.8 degrees consecutively.
Meanwhile, the Science Garden in Quezon City documented a high of 36.7 degrees Celsius in May.
The Unpredictable El Niño
Within this year, the El Niño phenomenon became a hot topic during the hot season as PAGASA continued to monitor the ups and down of sea surface temperature.
From April 21 to 28, PAGASA recorded a substantial increase in the sea surface temperature anomaly from 0.2 to 0.4 degree Celsius. It was then forecast that El Niño might reach its peak in the last quarter of 2014.
But with the recent report from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, only weak El Nino conditions were observed in November and December.
Here comes the rain!
The rainy season in the country officially started in June 10. Before declaring the onset of this season, PAGASA first made sure that the following requirements were met:
• Daily thunderstorm activity
• Prevailing southwest monsoon
• 5-day period with a total rainfall of 25 millimeters or more in three consecutive days.
Come on, Amihan!
The Amihan season was officially declared by PAGASA on October 16. The northeast monsoon or amihan is the prevailing wind system, bringing light rains to its affected areas. It also has cold and dry characteristics, resulting to colder mornings.
At this time of the year, a gradual decrease in temperatures was observed in different parts of the country.
Winter Solstice
Winter season in the northern hemisphere officially started on December 22 this year. This also signaled the start of experiencing longer nights and shorter days in the Philippines.
During the winter solstice, the northern hemisphere leans the farthest distance from the Sun, causing longer nights and lower temperatures for those in the northern hemisphere. The opposite happens in the southern hemisphere where people experience the longest day.
Related article: Winter has arrived
Although a lot has happened this year, there’s more to come this 2015. So brace yourself for those inevitable storms, but remember to keep to the sunny side of the street. With all the changes the weather brings, one thing stays the same: the Filipino brand of resilience that knows no bounds.
At 4:45 AM today, Tropical Storm Seniang made landfall over Sibonga, Cebu with maximum sustained winds of 65 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 80 kilometers per hour. At 7:00 AM, it made another landfall over Guihulngan, Negros Oriental and at 8:00 AM, it was located in the vicinity of La Libertad, Negros Oriental.
Public Storm Warning Signals are still up over some areas of Visayas and Mindanao.
Stormy weather will be experienced over Central Visayas and the provinces of Negros Occidental and Guimaras. The rest of Western Visayas and the provinces of Leyte, Misamis Oriental, Misamis Occidental, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Camotes Island, Zamboanga del Norte and Camihuin will have rains with gusty winds.
Bicol Region and Samar provinces will be cloudy with moderate to heavy rain showers and thunderstorms. Residents are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA and the rest of Mindanao will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms, while the rest of Luzon will be cloudy with light rains.
Travel for small seacraft is risky in the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon, the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon, Visayas and the northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao.
According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier, Seniang’s current intensity is capable of generating ocean waves that may reach up to 5 meters. Javier added that it is expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Friday, January 2, 2015 if it maintains its speed and direction.
Free rides on Rizal Day
Today, December 30, marks the death anniversary of our national hero, Dr. Jose Rizal. In line with this, LRT and MRT stations will be giving free rides for commuters. See image below for reference:
At 9:00 AM today, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issued a yellow rainfall warning over Metro Manila, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, Quezon, Bulacan, Bataan and southern Zambales. Residents are alerted against possible flooding in low-lying areas. Meanwhile, light to moderate rains are affecting Batangas, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac and the rest of Zambales which may persist for 3 hours.
A day before Christmas, two weather systems continue to prevail over the country. These include the diffused tail end of a cold front affecting Southern Luzon and the northeast monsoon or amihan affecting Northern and Central Luzon. The tail end of a cold front occurs when the cold air mass dominates the warm air mass during convergence while amihan is cold and dry air coming from Mainland China or Siberia.
Aside from these weather systems, PAGASA Weather Forecaster Samuel Duran said that converging winds coming from the northeast and east have formed clouds, which will dump rains over Mindanao areas.
Metro Manila, the regions of CALABARZON, Bicol, Eastern Visayas, Davao, SOCCSKSARGEN, and the provinces of Mindoro, Romblon and Marinduque will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms. Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Central Luzon will have cloudy skies with light rains. Ilocos Region will be partly cloudy to cloudy with chances of isolated light rains, while the rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
Fishing boats and other small sea craft are still advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboards of Northern, Central and Southern Luzon, and Visayas due to the rough to very rough sea conditions brought by the surge of amihan.
LPA too far to affect PH
PAGASA has been monitoring a cloud cluster outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) which has already developed into a low pressure area (LPA). According to Weather Forecaster Samuel Duran, it is approximately more than 1,500 kilometers away from the country and is still too far to directly affect our landmass within the next 3 days. However, continuous monitoring will be done by the weather bureau.
Rains will be concentrated over Eastern Visayas and the Bicol Region where cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms are expected. These rains are brought by the diffused tail end of a cold front, a weather system that occurs when the cold air mass dominates the warm air mass during convergence. Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon or amihan continues to blow through Northern and Central Luzon.
Cagayan Valley, Cordillera, and the provinces of Aurora and Quezon will have cloudy skies with light rains, while the rest of Northern and Central Luzon will experience isolated light rains. Metro Manila and the rest of the country can look forward to generally fair weather with a chance of isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
For sea travelers, gale warning is up over the seaboards of Northern and Southern Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon. These areas will experience rough to very rough sea conditions due to the surge of amihan. Coastal waters in the rest of the country will be moderate to rough.
Amihan peaks in January
Amihan, characterized as cold and dry air blowing from mainland China or Siberia, began to affect the Philippines last October 16, 2014. However, during the ber months, it’s still not completely felt all over the country. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Jori Loiz, this wind system will peak on January wherein the ocean has lower thermal capacity, which means it cannot absorb much heat. Minimum temperatures are usually recorded during this month.
