In line with Tropical Cyclone Week, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) conducted a La Niña Forum last June 15, 2016. This year’s theme, Tag- baha at Tag-bagyo, Handa na Tayo!, aims to prepare the public for the impacts of the increasing probability of La Niña.
La Niña is defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as a phenomenon characterized by the unusually low sea surface temperatures or cooling of the ocean in the Equatorial Pacific. As the opposite of El Niño, La Niña will bring more rains, and moderate to strong tropical cyclone activities.
According to the Chief of PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS), Mr. Anthony Lucero, El Niño is still in its decaying stage. It continues to weaken and is more likely to return to neutral condition by the end of June or July.
Though El Niño is currently weakening, Lucero explained that most parts of the country may still feel its impact. Many provinces may still experience below-normal rainfall until next month.
Majority of climate models show a possible development of La Niña during the second half of 2016. Despite this forecast, Lucero said there will be less tropical cyclones this year. “Talagang magkukulang tayo ng bagyo ngayon… pero nangyari na ito noon, walang unusual o abnormal dito.” (We will experience less tropical cyclones, but this has already happened before. Nothing unusual or abnormal about it.)
Annually, the average number of tropical cyclones that enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) is 19 to 21. We’ve already covered half of 2016, yet there is still no sign of a tropical cyclone. According to PAGASA, 8 to 14 tropical cyclones are expected to enter or develop within the boundary from June to November, and possibly a maximum of 16 until December.
Meanwhile, in a separate interview with PAGASA Weather Forecaster Gener Quitlong, he explained that after a strong El Niño episode, our country is likely to experience less number of tropical cyclones. This happened in 1972-1973, wherein we had only 12 tropical cyclones, and 11 tropical cyclones in 1997-1998.
New PAGASA Services
In preparation for the flood and cyclone season, PAGASA continues to upgrade their services. A book entitled, “Patnubay sa Weder Forkasting” was launched this week. This aims not only to simplify technical terms, but also to familiarize everyone with weather terms in other local languages, such as Ilokano and Bikolano.
The creation of the book was headed by the Komisyon sa Wikang Filipino, in close coordination with the weather bureau. Being the first-ever Filipino weather dictionary, it serves as a response to President Noynoy Aquino’s appeal for a more understandable and simplified way of crafting weather forecasts.
Here are some of the commonly used words included in the dictionary:
PAGASA also introduced an updated version of their mobile application, which includes weather information and flood alerts.
This app is a product of the collaboration between PAGASA and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). Now available for android phones, it can be downloaded through Google Play.
Meanwhile, reading materials, which include information about La Niña, Rainfall Warning System and the Tropical Cyclone Warning System (formerly known as Public Storm Warning Signal), were also launched at the forum. This is part of the Be Sure Project which was successfully made through the help of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).
February is already here! Before you plan your surprises for your loved ones, checking the weather first is an absolute must. Here are the top three things you need to know about this month’s weather:
1. No goodbyes for Amihan yet.
Slightly colder weather will prevail in some parts of Luzon as the Northeast Monsoon, locally known as Amihan is expected to continue its peak. The surge of these winds usually occurs during January to February each year.
In history, the coldest day in February was experienced in Baguio City wherein a chilling 6.7 degrees Celsius was recorded on February 1, 1963.
However, due to the strong El Niño, the effect of Amihan this year may not be as dominant as the previous years.
Aside from lower temperatures, light rains may also occur, mostly in the northern provinces. Meanwhile, for small seacraft, venturing out into the sea may also be risky as strong to gale force winds associated with the Amihan may still be experienced.
2. Missing the rain
Based on the rainfall outlook, most parts of the Luzon, entire Visayas and several areas in Mindanao could receive a way-below normal amount of rain this month.
Dry conditions, dry spells and droughts are expected to prevail. These are the main challenges the agricultural sector faces.
3. There’s still a chance… for a weather disturbance.
Despite the occurring El Niño, our country is still not safe from a Tropical Cyclone or “bagyo”. PAGASA says that an average of 0 to 1 Tropical Cyclone may develop within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this February.
Other weather systems expected to affect the country include the Northeast Monsoon, Tail End of a Cold Front, Low Pressure Area, Ridge of High Pressure Area, and Trough of Low Pressure Area.
The Northeast Monsoo,n locally known as Amihan, is now affecting the entire Northern Luzon. This will result to light rains in Cagayan Valley and Cordillera, while lighter rains will prevail in Ilocos Region.
Meanwhile, the Easterlies are affecting the eastern section of Central and Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Due to their warm and humid characteristics, light to moderate rain showers are expected over Bicol Region, Visayas, Caraga and Northern Mindanao.
Generally good weather will continue in Metro Manila and the rest of the archipelago.
According to PAGASA, this February, an average of zero to one tropical cyclone is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). With the continued effect of El Niño, there is a high probability of having no weather disturbance during the month.
According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Benison Estareja, temperatures in Luzon are slightly higher compared to the recorded lowest temperature in the past few days. But, colder days are still coming as the Amihan or Northeast Monsoon expected to intensify.
With Amihan reaching Northern Luzon, light rains are possible within the day in Ilocos Region, Cordillera and the rest of Cagayan Valley. Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will have a lower chance of rain showers today.
Due to the Tail End of a Cold Front, light to moderate rain showers are expected over the provinces of Cagayan and Aurora.
Moreover, good weather will prevail in the rest of the country.
DOST: Launching of 1st Satellite
More accurate and reliable weather information is coming. This April 2016, the Department of Science and Technology is launching first micro satellite in the Philippines.
DOST Assistant Secretary Raymund Liboro said that the micro satellite comes with remote sensing, capable of gathering data from agricultural, marine, and mountainous areas. Remote sensing is a kind of technology used in getting information without any physical interaction.
The micro satellite will benefit the project Disaster Risk Exposure Assessment for Mitigation (DREAM), designed to give 3D-mapping that helps determine the flood prone areas.
The surge of the Northeast Monsoon continues, allowing cold weather to prevail in Luzon in the coming days.
Yesterday,on January 1, temperature in the City of Pines, Baguio, dropped to 14.2 degrees Celsius. According to PAGASA, lower temperatures are expected this January.
The Northeast Monsoon will also dump light rain in Cagayan Valley and isolated light rains in Ilocos and Cordillera.
The Tail End of a Cold Front will bring light to moderate in some parts of Central Luzon, particularly over the provinces of Quirino, Aurora and Quezon.
For Metro Manila and the rest of the country, urban dwellers can continue outdoor activities though localized thunderstorms are still possible within the day.
Watch the full interview with PAGASA weather forecast Samuel Duran.
The Northeast Monsoon, popularly known as Amihan, continues its surge as we welcome December. Lower temperatures and light rains will be experienced in the regions of Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands.
PAGASA weather forecaster Jun Galang said, within 2-3 days, Amihan is expected to dominate.
Meanwhile, isolated rain showers are still possible in the metro and the rest of the country.
December Weather
Here are the other weather systems expected to prevail during this month.
An average of 18 to 20 tropical cyclones enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) yearly. This number is more than enough to cause devastation in different parts of the country.
As the national weather bureau, PAGASA duly informs and warns the Filipino people against every weather disturbance that may affect the country. Together with the Office of Civil Defense and the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC), information and disaster preparedness drives are implemented.
But during the onslaught of a tropical cyclone, people tend to focus on the losses it has caused, and rarely talk about its benefits.
Here’s are some reasons why storms are essential to our survival:
They fill up our reservoirs. In a tropical country like the Philippines, a large portion of the annual rain comes from cyclones. Though these are dubbed as “weather disturbances,” cyclones don’t only get rid of pollutants in the atmosphere, but also give us our much-needed water supply. In fact, studies shows that 25% of the water supplies in India and Southeast Asia come from rain showers brought by cyclones. Regions that are facing dry and drought conditions can benefit from cyclones. Increased rainfall enables the ground to hold more moisture that is conducive to crops.
They keep our bodies of water healthy. Rain showers help river systems flush out silt. According to National Geographic, silt is made up of rock and minerals that are bigger than clay but smaller than sand, that are worn away by water or ice. Silts are fine sediment that gathers at the bottoms of river, streams and lakes. These can be a rich source of nutrients for fish, however it can be presented by unnatural process. Build up of silts introduced by industry can be harmful as it contains chemicals.
Another advantage of rains is they inundate areas where fish can breed, thus increasing the number of fish. Cyclones can also help circulate nutrients from the seafloor, boosting ocean productivity.
They balance the global temperature. Cyclones move towards the poles, thus balancing the earth’s temperature by pushing warm tropical away from the equator. It is said that the poles will get a lot colder, and the tropics would get a lot hotter if there were no tropical cyclones.
sources:
http://education.nationalgeographic.com/encyclopedia/silt/
Last October 18 2015, Tropical Cyclone Lando (Koppu) brought heavy to intense rain showers in Luzon as it traversed slowly towards Northern Luzon—just in time when water levels in the region’s major reservoirs were threatened because of the El Niño.
Yearly, an average of 18 to 20 tropical cyclones enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), and 50% of our water supply come from rain showers brought mostly by these weather disturbances.
According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) together with other international meteorological agency, El Niño phenomenon happened in 1997 is being considered as the worst El Niño event where damage in farmlands reached P3 billion.
Before Lando, the Angat dam has been struggling with relatively low water levels since March that had eventually led to a decreased water supply in Metro Manila.
Today, as the Angat dam finally regains normal water levels, the National Water Resources Board continues to implement the proper allocation for water concessionaires to be able secure water supply until the next dry season.
Dam Data
Here’s a quick look at Luzon’s Major Dams:
Angat Dam – Situated in Norzagaray in Bulacan, it supplies water to farmlands in Pampanga and some parts of Bulacan, and is a power source of the Luzon grid. Metro Manila and Bulacan residents also get their water supply from here. During the rainy season, the flood season water level of Angat Dam is at 210 meters, while the dry season normal high water level is at 212 meters.
Ipo and La Mesa Dams – These dams are part of the Angat-Ipo-Lamesa water system. Located in Norzagaray, Bulacan, the Ipo dam water is diverted to the Novaliches portal and the La Mesa dam. The latter is situated in Fairview, Quezon City. Its main purpose is to provide water for domestic use in Greater Metro Manila.
Ambuklao Dam – Found in the mountains of Bokod, Benguet, this was designed to provide 75 MW (megawatts) of energy to the Luzon grid. Water level in Ambuklao dam also varies depending on the season. The normal high water level during dry season is at 750 meters while the flood season water level during rainy season is at 752 meters.
Binga Dam – Found in the province of Itogon in Benguet, this dam forms an impoundment on the Agno River. It’s also a hydroelectric plant that supplies power generation to nearby provinces. Binga dam maintains a 575-meter level regardless of the season.
San Roque Dam – Spanning from San Manuel and San Nicolas in Pangasinan, this is among the largest dams in the Philippines. Connected to the Tarlac River through the Agno River, the San Roque dam provides irrigation to San Manuel, Asingan, Sta. Barbara, Binalonan, Urdaneta City, Villasis, Calasiao, Mapandan, Manaoag, Mangaldan, Laoac and Malasiqui. It also supplies power generation to Luzon grid. Normal water level in San Roque dam is at 280 meters.
Magat Dam – Magat dam rests in the province of Isabela, and is located specifically in the Magat River, considered the largest tributary of the Cagayan River. As one of the largest dams in the Philippines, its primary purposes are providing irrigation and hydroelectric power to 85,000 hectares of agricultural lands in the Cagayan Valley and other parts of the Isabela province.
Caliraya Dam – Positioned along the Caliraya River in Lumban, Laguna, and this dam utilizes water in the Caliraya River Basin. The power generated from the Caliraya Hydroelectric Plant is intended for the Manila power market.
The Ridge of High Pressure Area extends over the Northern Luzon. Because of this, the whole country will have sunny weather. However, PAGASA warns of isolated rain showers which normally occurs in the afternoon or evening.
Haze in Cebu City
According to environment officials, the haze presence in Cebu City may be the effect of the wildfire raging in Indonesia.
Because of this, temperatures significantly dropped. Normally, the city has an average of 32 degrees Celcius, but with the haze, temperatures are now pegged at 26 – 31 degrees Celsius.
Haze is an atmospheric phenomenon where dust, smoke and other dry particles obscure the clarity of the sky.
