Bagyong Amang came when the Pope arrived in the Philippines. Now it’s dissipating on the same day Pope Francis is leaving the country.
Amang, known as Mekkhala internationally, has weakened into a low pressure area this morning. Public Storm Warning Signals have been lifted.
Estimated at 85 km Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora at 10 am today, it is still expected to bring light to moderate rains over the regions Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos.
State Meteorologist Glaiza Escullar says that the said weather disturbance has weakened due to the following factors:
1) Vertical wind shear. With a stronger wind shear, the heat is dispersed over a large area, weakening the tropical cyclone.
2) Friction effect.
3) Sea condition. As it moves relatively northward, the sea surface temperature gets lower, unable to sustain the strength of the bagyo.
4) Northeast monsoon. Cold and dry air intrusion is not conducive for any weather disturbance as this needs warm temperature to develop.
Expected to dissipate within 24 hours, Amang has made landfall thrice as a tropical cyclone and has crossed another as a low pressure area. Here’s its latest landfall track:
Today, the regions of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos will continue to experience light to moderate rains due to the existing weather disturbance. The rest of Luzon, including Metro Manila, will have cloudy skies with light rains caused by the prevailing northeast monsoon.
Visayas and Mindanao, on the other hand, can expect improved weather conditions apart from isolated thunderstorms.
In other related news, gale warning has been issued over the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon, and the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon. Wave height may reach up to 4.5 meters, making sea travel risky
in the following hours.
LAST DAY OF THE PAPAL VISIT
After a 5-day visit, the Pope will be leaving for Rome at 10 AM today. A departure ceremony will be held at the Presidential Pavilion of the Villamor Airbase.
At 4 AM today, a tropical depression (TD) was located at 1,610 kilometers east of Mindanao with maximum winds of 55 kph and moving west-northwest at 19 kph.
PAGASA Meteorologist Jun Galang says that the tropical depression is forecast to enter the PAR (Philippine Area of Responsibility) today or tomorrow morning. Two possible scenarios are expected to happen. First, there is a chance that it will make its landfall in the Bicol Region. Its effect will be experience too in Metro Manila. The other scenario is that the TD will re-curve, not hitting any part of the landmass. Either of the two, this will bring light to moderate rains, especially in Eastern Visayas and the Bicol Region.
Meanwhile, today, the northeast monsoon is still affecting Luzon, bringing light rains and cold weather over Cagayan Valley and Cordillera. Isolated light rains may still affect Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon.
CARAGA and the provinces of Leyte and Bohol will have cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers. Possible occurrence of thunderstorms is also expected in the said areas. The rest of Visayas and Mindanao will continue to have fine weather aside from isolated rains and thunderstorms.
Welcome, Pope Francis!
Tomorrow, Pope Francis will arrive at the Villamor Airbase at 5:45 in the afternoon.Churches in the whole archipelago are encouraged to ring their bells as a sign of welcoming the Pope in the country.
The state weather bureau said that fair weather condition or partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains will prevail tomorrow over Metro Manila.
Eastern and Central Visayas and Mindanao will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and possible thunderstorms due to the trough or the extension of a low pressure area (LPA). The rest of Visayas will have fair weather apart from isolated cases of rains.
The northeast monsoon continues to prevail over Luzon, bringing cloudy skies with light rains in the regions of Cagayan Valley and Cordillera. As for Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, skies will be partly cloudy to at times cloudy with isolated light rains.
Meanwhile, the LPA is now estimated at 1,990 kms. east of Mindanao. State Meteorologist Buddy Javier says it is still expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Thursday.
Current data analysis shows a less probability of the LPA crossing the Visayas as compared to it moving towards Luzon before recurving to the northeast where it will weaken due to cold air intrusion. PAGASA implements continuous monitoring as significant changes may occur.
PAPAL VISIT WEATHER OUTLOOK
PAGASA releases a special weather outlook during Pope Francis’s visit covering January 13 to 19, 2015.
Starting January 13-17, Metro Manila is expected to have generally good weather condition aside from passing light rains due to the northeast monsoon. However, moderate to heavy rains are possible come Sunday, January 18, as the monitored weather disturbance is expected to move near the eastern side of Southern Luzon. By Monday, January 19, a rainy weather condition will continue in Metro Manila as the weather disturbance moves north and is expected to recurve in a northeast direction.
Meanwhile, in Tacloban, light to moderate rain showers are expected on Friday and Saturday (January 16-17). Thunderstorms are also likely to occur. This weather condition will continue on Sunday. Improved weather conditions are then expected by Monday.
The northeast monsoon or “hanging amihan” still prevails over Luzon this Monday, bringing cloudy skies with light rains over the regions of Cagayan Valley and Cordillera. Isolate cases of light rains are also expected in Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon.
Eastern Visayas, CARAGA and Davao regions, on the other hand, will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorm, while the rest of Visayas and Mindanao can expect a fair weather condition apart from localized thunderstorms.
Strong to gale force wind is expected to affect the seaboards of Luzon and Visayas. Sea travel is risky due to the rough to very rough sea conditions generated by the strong surge of the northeast monsoon.
Meanwhile, PAGASA continues to monitor the low pressure area (LPA) outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier says it is expected to enter PAR on Thursday. Current analysis of the forecasting models show three scenarios of what may happen to the said weather disturbance – to dissipate, to recurve or to intensify as a tropical cyclone, which would make it the first bagyo this year.
In other news, a 4.9-magnitude earthquake was recorded 73 kms. east of Hernani in Eastern Samar at 12:07 this morning. There are no expected aftershocks or damage that may occur in the following hours, according to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
Today is the “Pahalik,” wherein the Black Nazarene of the Quiapo Church is brought to Luneta to make it more accessible for devotees to kiss and touch. For those planning to attend the event, remember to bring your umbrellas. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Meno Mendoza, Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon may be affected by the northeast monsoon, resulting to partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains.
Meanwhile, CARAGA, Davao, and Northern Mindanao will experience light to moderate rains due to wind convergence or the boundary where the northeast monsoon and winds from the east meet.
The rest of the country, including Visayas, will have good weather condition today. Isolated rains and thunderstorms will be prevalent in the afternoon or evening.
The cloud clousters outside PAR (Philippine Area of Responsibility) has now developed into a low pressure area and has a possibility to enhance into a tropical cyclone.
But, good news from the weather bureau, the said weather disturbance will not affect any part of the country. Therefore, we may look forward to sunny days ahead.
Amihan (Northeast monsoon) until March
The termination of the northeast monsoon last season was on March 26, 2014. Mendoza says that most likely, this year’s amihan will also probably last until March. PAGASA will completely terminate the amihan season when the easterlies (another wind system from the east) becomes dominant.
The tail-end of a cold front now affects Mindanao, bringing cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers, particularly over the regions of Northern Mindanao, CARAGA and Central Visayas, as well in the provinces of Leyte and Negros Occidental.
Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will be experiencing fair weather conditions, apart from isolated light rains due to the prevailing northeast monsoon.
The remaining parts of Visayas and Mindanao can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms in the following hours.
Meanwhile, State Meteorologist Buddy Javier says that although the satellite shows a cluster of clouds outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, it has a low chance of developing into a low pressure area.
THE JANUARY NIGHT SKY
On this first week of 2015, the northern hemisphere night sky is favored by the first meteor shower of the year.
The annual Quadrantid meteor shower has been active since January 1 and will last until January 7. Peaking on the first weekend of the year, between midnight and dawn of January 3 and 4, a rate of at least 40 meteors per hour can be seen, says Engr. Dario Dela Cruz, PAGASA Space Sciences and Astronomy Section Chief.
However, the almost fully illuminated moon hinders the display this year, making visibility a challenge to avid skywatchers, except for a very short window of peak activity.
The said meteor shower was named after the extinct 17th century constellation Quadrans Muralis or the Wall Quadrant.
2015 is here! Another year, another set of goals. But before we outline our plans for the new year, let us first familiarize ourselves with this month’s weather.
1) Rains won’t go away yet.
This month marks the start of another year but rainy days won’t end yet for some areas of the country. PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier said the northeast monsoon or amihan and the tail end of a cold front will be dominant. Amihan is cold and dry air coming from Mainland China or Siberia, bringing light rains mostly over Northern and Central Luzon.
Meanwhile, the tail end of a cold front refers to the extended part of a cold front which is formed when the cold air mass dominates the warm air mass during a convergence. Javier added that at this time, Southern Luzon usually experiences cloudy skies, as well as light and moderate to occasionally heavy rain showers and thunderstorms. However, the tail end of a cold front can recede or move, depending on the strength of amihan.
2) January’s not totally “bagyo-free”.
According to PAGASA, the average number of tropical cyclones that usually enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this month is 0 to 1. This means that there is still a chance for us to experience stormy weather even in the first month of the year.
Climatologically speaking, a cyclone that may enter the PAR could cross the archipelago or make landfall, particularly over the Visayas area. It is also possible for it to re-curve, moving away from the landmass. The surge of the northeast monsoon or amihan influences its movement.
3) The much awaited sweater-weather is here.
Amihan peaks this month, bringing colder weather mostly over Luzon. Minimum temperatures are usually recorded during this chilly part of the year. One of the significant amihan-related events happened on January 18, 1961 when Baguio City’s temperature dropped to 6.3 degrees Celsius.
The Philippines remains bagyo-free on the first Monday of 2015. Weather forecaster Glaiza Escullar says in an interview that no weather disturbance has been monitored inside or outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Two weather systems remain to influence the country’s weather – the tail-end of a cold front in Eastern Visayas and the northeast monsoon prevailing in Luzon.
The tail-end of a cold front is the boundary between the northeasterlies and the easterlies. The convergence of the cold and dry air of the former and the warm and humid air of the latter generate cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers.
On the other hand, the northeast monsoon or amihan brings light rains over the regions of Cagayan Valley and Cordillera. Isolated rain showers can be experienced in Metro Manila and the remaining parts of Luzon. The rest of the country will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, PAGASA has not issued any gale warnings today after releasing the final advisory yesterday due to the weakened northeast monsoon.
AMIHAN: THE COLDEST DAYS
According to PAGASA, the peak months of the northeast monsoon are January and February when the lowest temperatures during the season are recorded.
In history, the lowest temperature ever recorded in the Philippines was in Baguio City on January 18, 1961 with 6.3 degrees Celsius.
Metro Manila, which has three stations, recorded the lowest temperatures ranging from 14.5 to 14.9 degrees Celsius as shown below:
The cloud cluster being monitored by PAGASA has already developed into a weather disturbance. At 4:00 AM today, the low pressure area (LPA) was estimated at 220 kilometers east of Surigao City. PAGASA Weather Forecaster Glaiza Escullar said it has a slim chance of developing into a tropical cyclone as it moves closer to cross the southern part of Visayas and Northern Mindanao today. The LPA could dissipate within the next 24 hours.
Aside from the LPA, the tail end of a cold front, wherein the cold air mass dominates the warm air during convergence, will also affect Central Luzon. On the other hand, the northeast monsoon or amihan, characterized as cold and dry air coming from Siberia, continues to prevail over the Northern Luzon. These weather systems are expected to bring rains over some parts of the country.
Central Luzon, Eastern Visayas and CARAGA will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms. The regions of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos will have cloudy skies with light rains. Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
Due to the surge of amihan, gale warning remains over the seaboards of Northern Luzon, which include Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Cagayan, Isabela. Ilocos, La Union and Pangasinan. Fishing boats and other small seacraft are prohibited from venturing out due to the rough to very rough sea conditions.
Amihan also brings a slight temperature drop over the north. Basco, Batanes felt a chilly morning yesterday with a temperature of 15.6 degrees Celsius. Below are the lowest temperatures recorded by PAGASA yesterday, on the 15th of December.
