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By Amor Larrosa and Desserie Dionio, Panahon TV Reporters

Gunshots echoed as protesters hurled stones against the police. Blasts of water cannons were directed toward rallyists, who ran for their lives amidst deafening screams. According to reports, such was the scene that unfolded in Kidapawan in Cotabato that took the media by storm on the first day of April – an incident that would later be tagged by others as “Bigas, Hindi Bala.”

On March 29, 500 El Niño-stricken farmers and agricultural workers staged a rally in front of the National Food Authority (NFA) in Kidapawan City to ask the government for rice rations and aid after the El Niño had dried up their crops, leaving them penniless, in debt and hungry.

The local government agreed to talk to the farmers, but on March 30, their numbers rose to 6,000, allowing them to occupy the highway. A couple of days later, the event led to a violent dispersal, killing two farmers and one civilian, with more than a hundred protesters and members of the police wounded, and 80 farmers missing.

TWO SIDES OF THE COIN
Last April 7, the Senate Committee on Justice and Human Rights held a hearing in Davao City as some of farmers who were still recovering from injuries could not travel to Manila.

During the session, a farmer named Arlyn Oti Aman recalled how she, along with colleagues, were treated violently. “We went here to ask for food, but they looked upon us as like dogs, like animals.”

Meanwhile, the Philippine National Police (PNP) claimed that they have proof that the demonstrators initiated the violence. North Cotabato Chief Police Senior Supt. Alexander Tagum said that maximum tolerance was implemented during the outbreak of violence. He also showed an aerial video of the incident showing that cops were not raising their batons.

There are always two sides to every story, but what’s certain is that one of the factors that sparked the Kidapawan violence is the El Niño. This phenomenon aggravated the Dry Season in Mindanao, threatening food security.

WHAT IS EL NIÑO?
El Niño is characterized by the unusual warming of the ocean or the unusual rise in sea surface temperature (SST). According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the term El Niño was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America as the appearance of uncommon warm water in the Pacific Ocean.

“El Niño” is also a Spanish term meaning “Little Boy” or “Christ child” because this phenomenon usually arrives around Christmas.

WARNING
As early as 2014, PAGASA warned the public about the possible threat of El Niño, which was expected to bring below-normal rainfall patterns and higher air temperatures. Though the average number of tropical cyclones could still be normal, PAGASA stated that the El Niño could affect the cyclones’ movement and intensity, causing them to be stronger and more erratic.

EL NIÑO SETS IN
On March 11, 2015, PAGASA confirmed the ongoing El Niño in a press statement.

In the same month, the Dry Spell started to affect farmlands and water sources in Kidapawan City. The veterinary office in the city also reported deaths of hogs and cows because of the severe heat. The city office also received reports that some farm animals had weakened, possibly due to heat stroke.

El Niño Documentation

After enduring the effects of El Niño for months, North Cotabato was placed under a state of calamity on January 2016. Thousands of hectares of farmlands and millions of crops like rice, corn, cacao, and other high-value crops were affected.

MINDANAO’S WEATHER
Provinces that are vulnerable to the effects of El Niño are mostly in Mindanao, mainly because of its location. According to PAGASA-Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS) Chief Mr. Anthony Lucero, areas which are at the nearest distance from the equator normally experience the highest temperatures and least precipitation.

“Kapag kasi may El Niño, nagkakaroon ng reversal of winds—5 degrees north and 5 degrees south of equator. Humihina ‘yung effect ng Easterlies pagdating sa part na ‘yun. So walang moisture, wala ring ulan,” Lucero said.

This April, North Cotabato remains to be on the list of areas that are more likely to experience drought. Drought is defined by three consecutive months of way-below normal rainfall condition, wherein the average rainfall is reduced by 60%.

APRIL RAINFALL FORECAST 2016

WERE WE PREPARED FOR EL NIÑO?
In the Senate Committee hearing, Cotabato Governor Emmylou Taliño Mendoza stressed that the provincial government took El Niño-mitigating measures after being warned by PAGASA.

Meanwhile, the Department of Agriculture (DA) Secretary Proceso Alcala belied reports that farmers in Mindanao have become hungry because of the government’s failure to prepare for El Niño. According to Alcala, when PAGASA declared a mild El Niño, the DA immediately provided P2.666 billion worth of mitigation assistance as early as 2015. He also said that P979.9 million worth of assistance was released from January to March 2016, including the provision of water pumps.

According to Alcala, DA’s projection of palay harvest loss due to El Niño for 2016 to date is 970,000 metric tons; “But the actual loss was 203,000 metric tons, meaning that the government has implemented the necessary interventions.”

From April to July this year, DA targets to distribute a total of 89,260 bags of rice varieties and seeds; 80,000 kilograms of soil ameliorant/zinc sulphate; and 5,000 bags of organic fertilizer for distribution to affected farmers.

As early as January, Pasig City Representative Roman Romulo called for the administration to disclose how it intended to spend the multimillion-peso budget for El Niño mitigation.

Likewise, in his statement during the hearing, Majority Floor Leader Alan Peter Cayetano condemned the administration for its failure to immediately release funds to mitigate the effects of El Niño.

“Enough of excuses and lies: we actually have P45 billion worth of funds in 2016 that may be used for the projects that will curb the impact of this crisis. If the Palace wanted to resolve this, they can… why are there so many farmers who are still starving and facing poverty?” said Cayetano.

EL NIÑO AND CLIMATE CHANGE
In an interview with the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), Atty. Gia Ibay said climate change does not cause El Niño, but the frequency of El Niño occurrence may be linked to it.

Lucero affirms this, saying it is a common misconception that El Niño is caused by climate change. He added that though El Niño is a natural occurrence, climate change may worsen its effects.

“Sa nakikita natin in the recent years, dumadami at dumadalas ang pagkakaroon ng disasters dahil sa climate change – kasama dun ‘yung drought. Ang climate change, connected sa pagtaas ng temperatura ng mundo. So kapag nagkaroon ng El Niño, lumalala ang effect. Mas mainit at lalong nagkukulang sa ulan,” Lucero explained.

According to Lucero, the current El Niño is still categorized as “strong” but is expected to weaken in the next few months. Probably by the end of July, our country may experience a “neutral” climatic condition.

AWARENESS + PREPAREDNESS
To date, the PNP has started its own inquiry on the Kidapawan dispersal, but there are calls for the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) to conduct a parallel probe to ensure an impartial and independent investigation.

Meanwhile, in Senator Loren Legarda’s press release, she said that this incident would not have happened if necessary interventions addressed the impact of El Niño on farmers and communities.

“…the government can no longer deny the link between climate change and development. What we saw is just one of the human faces of climate change and our farmers, who did not cause this phenomenon, is among the direct victims of its impacts,” Legarda stated.

With the increasing frequency of El Niño and extreme weather events, it is evident that we are already facing a serious challenge. We have all been warned about the development of an El Niño phenomenon, but awareness is not enough without preparedness. It is the state’s responsibility to see to it that measures are effectively carried out from planning to implementation, making sure that the very backbone of the country’s food security—the farmers—benefit from them.

Related articles:
Panahon TV Blog: Decrypting the Dry Spell
Panahon TV Blog: El Niño getting stronger, threatens PH until 2016

REFERENCES:

http://davaotoday.com/main/human-rights/we-were-treated-like-animals-woman-tells-senate-hearing-on-kidapawan-carnage/

http://news.pia.gov.ph/article/view/1541460006387/senate-hearing-on-violent-kidapawan-protest-held-in-davao

http://www.da.gov.ph/index.php/media-resources/news-release/2016-news-release/7456-agri-chief-belies-media-reports-that-mindanao-farmers-going-hungry-due-to-el-nino

http://www.gov.ph/2016/04/05/govt-intensifies-efforts-combat-el-nino/

https://www.senate.gov.ph/press_release/2016/0407_escudero2.asp
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
PAGASA-DOST
Greenpeace Philippines
www.mindanews.com
http://www.philstar.com/nation/2016/01/21/1544611/north-cotabato-under-state-calamity-due-el-nino
http://www.senate.gov.ph/press_release/2016/0405_legarda1.asp

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Tropical Storm Egay slightly intensified as it moved closer towards Northern Luzon. From a previous strength of 85 kph, it now packs 95 kph maximum sustained winds and gustiness of 120 kph. It slowed down to a speed of 9 kph in a northwest direction due to a high pressure area located southeast of Japan.

More areas are now placed under signal #2. These provinces will experience stormy weather with winds of 61 to 120kph within 24 hours. Meanwhile, expect rains with gusty winds over areas under signal #1:

PUBLIC STORM WARNING 2

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According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Aldczar Aurelio, Egay is expected to make landfall tomorrow morning in the northern tip of Cagayan. Its second contact with land will be over the Batanes area by Sunday night or Monday morning. If it maintains its current speed and direction, Egay will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Wednesday afternoon.

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Egay still has the possibility of intensifying in the following hours but has a slim chance of reaching typhoon category, he added.

Tropical Storm Egay is the first cyclone in the Philippines this July and the fifth this year. It has an international name of Linfa which means a Lotus, the city flower of Macau.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Chan Hom is expected to enter PAR by Wednesday or Thursday next week. If it does, it will be named Falcon and will further enhance the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat.

PanahonTV0201

Despite the distance of Egay from the western side of the Philippines, moderate to heavy rains will still be experienced over Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA and Bicol Region due to the enhancement of the southwest monsoon. Light to moderate rains and thunderstorms can be expected over Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula and the rest of Luzon. The rest of Mindanao will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms tonight.

In related news, gale warning has been issued over the seaboards of Southern Luzon, Visayas and Northern Mindanao. Fishing boats and small seacraft are advised against venturing out into the sea due to strong to gale force winds and rough to very rough sea conditions.

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Inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), the low-pressure area (LPA) remains almost stationary. At 4:00 AM today, the LPA was spotted at 560 kms. east of Legazpi City.

The said weather disturbance is still embedded along the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) currently across Visayas.

Based on PAGASA’s latest weather forecast, we can expect cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and thunderstorms over Visayas, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, and the provinces of Mindoro and Palawan.

The rest of the country, including Metro Manila, will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with chances of thunderstorms.

july2 chanhom

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Chan Hom is expected to intensify into typhoon category. It also has a probability of absorbing its nearest LPA.

State meteorologist Jori Loiz says it has a low chance of entering the PAR as it moves towards Southern Japan. However, it will enhance the southwest monsoon, which will bring more rains in the western side of the Philippines.

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The axis of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is now across Visayas.

This means rainy weather, not only in the Visayas, but also over MIMAROPA and Mindanao. The remaining parts of the country will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms usually in the afternoon or evening.

Meanwhile, a cloud cluster outside the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) is being monitored by the weather bureau.

State Meteorologist Jori Loiz said that this might develop into a low pressure area and enter the PAR late this week or early next week.

Its possibility of becoming a tropical cyclone is currently being assessed. Once it does, this might enhance the southwest monsoo,n bringing more rains especially over the western section of the Philippines.

In relation to the southwest monsoon, Loiz shared that it is affecting not only the Philippines, but also other countries in Southeast Asia. In fact, India is experiencing heavy rains due to a strong monsoon today.

Be ready for a longer time of fun under the sun as the summer solstice sets in on June 22, 2015.

This annual astronomical event pertains to the longest daytime in the northern hemisphere and the opposite in the southern hemisphere where Winter Solstice will take place.

According to Engr. Dario dela Cruz, Chief of the Space Sciences and Astronomy Section of PAGASA, Summer Solstice in the Philippines will begin at 12:38 AM (Philippine Standard Time).

The said phenomenon marks the start of summer in the United States and other countries situated in higher latitudes. However, the opposite happens in the Philippines where the rainy season is just about to begin since it is near the equator.

During the Summer Solstice, the sun attains its greatest declination of +23.5 degrees and passes directly overhead at noon at a latitude of 23.5 degrees north, which is known as the Tropic of Cancer. This event marks the start of the apparent southward movement of the Sun in the ecliptic, dela Cruz added.

At this time, the sun appears at its highest elevation caused by the Earth’s tilt on its axis and its motion in orbit around the sun. This is when the northern hemisphere leans nearest to the sun.

Aside from the solstices that occur during June and December, we also experience equinoxes in the months of March and September, which result to an approximately equal duration of night and daytime. (link to past article re equinox)

The word solstice is derived from the Latin words sol, which means “sun,” and sistere meaning to “stand still.” Therefore, solstice literally translates into “the sun stands still.”

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The Philippines will experience warm and humid weather yet again as the Ridge of High Pressure Area remains to be the dominant weather system affecting Luzon.

Expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening.

According to PAGASA, this weather condition will continue tomorrow and on Sunday. For those venturing out this weekend, better pack your fans to stave off hot weather, and umbrellas just in case it rains in your area.

Meanwhile, if yesterday was Hug-Your-Cat Day, today is World Environment Day!

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Expect the same weather condition yesterday as the Ridge of High Pressure Area continues to prevail over Luzon.

The whole archipelago will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening. Bringing an umbrella is advisable to avoid any weather-related hassles this Thursday.

Sea travel can be enjoyed with light to moderate winds and slight to moderate waves in the following hours.

To look back on the month that was, here are the highest temperatures recorded in the Philippines, including Metro Manila, during the month of May 2015:

may2015 temps

According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier, we no longer expect to hit such temperatures this month as thunderstorms will be more frequent in the following days.

Despite this, we will continue to experience hot and humid weather conditions due to the prevailing El Niño phenomenon, which will also affect the amount of rainfall.

june2

The Ridge of High Pressure Area remains to be the dominant weather system affecting the country particularly over Northern Luzon.

This weather system associated with fair weather condition will bring partly cloudy to cloudy skies in the following hours. However, thunderstorm formation is still possible mostly in the afternoon or evening.

Coastal waters throughout the archipelago will be slight to moderate, making sea travel fairly easy and breezy with light to moderate winds.

Temperature in Metro Manila plays between 25 to 36°C. Expect to feel a heat index of at least 40.1°C especially after lunch.

Meanwhile, all commuters taking the Metro Rail Transit are advised to leave earlier than usual as queues are expected to be quite longer today. With airconditioning problems, only 9 out of 20 trains will be operational. Avoid the rush hours if possible and bring drinking water to avoid dehydration while waiting for your train to arrive.

back to school

On this first day of June, warm and humid weather will continue in the Philippines as the Ridge of High Pressure Area affects Northern Luzon. This weather system brings partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening over Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

Despite the cloudiness seen over the East Philippine Sea, State Meteorologist Jori Loiz says that the country will remain bagyo-free this week.

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He reminds students to bring umbrellas to combat direct sun rays and possible thunderstorms that usually occur in the same time as afternoon classes are dismissed, or in the evening.

Meanwhile, this June, here are the various weather systems expected to influence local weather conditions.

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As elementary and high school students attend school this new academic year, here’s a quote from renowned politician and philanthropist Nelson Mandela:

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