Rains will be concentrated over Eastern Visayas and the Bicol Region where cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms are expected. These rains are brought by the diffused tail end of a cold front, a weather system that occurs when the cold air mass dominates the warm air mass during convergence. Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon or amihan continues to blow through Northern and Central Luzon.

Cagayan Valley, Cordillera, and the provinces of Aurora and Quezon will have cloudy skies with light rains, while the rest of Northern and Central Luzon will experience isolated light rains. Metro Manila and the rest of the country can look forward to generally fair weather with a chance of isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

For sea travelers, gale warning is up over the seaboards of Northern and Southern Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon. These areas will experience rough to very rough sea conditions due to the surge of amihan. Coastal waters in the rest of the country will be moderate to rough.

Amihan peaks in January

Amihan, characterized as cold and dry air blowing from mainland China or Siberia, began to affect the Philippines last October 16, 2014. However, during the ber months, it’s still not completely felt all over the country. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Jori Loiz, this wind system will peak on January wherein the ocean has lower thermal capacity, which means it cannot absorb much heat. Minimum temperatures are usually recorded during this month.

PAGASA monitored three weather systems affecting the country today. The northeast monsoon or amihan is affecting Northern Luzon while the tail end of a cold front is affecting Eastern Visayas. Meanwhile, the trough of low pressure area (LPA) is still affecting Southern Luzon.

According to PAGASA weather forecaster Alvin Pura, only the trough or the extension of LPA is affecting the said area, but the LPA alone is outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and has a slim chance of entering the boundary.

Today, the Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanano will have cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms. Light rains will be experienced in Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos Region.

Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will have fair weather conditions. Isolated rains are still expected in the afternoon or evening.

Lowest Temperature in Quezon City

Throughout the amihan season, Quezon City has recorded its lowest temperature today. As of 5 AM, temperature dropped to 20.8 degree Celsius.

Pura said that an even lower temperature might be experienced in the next coming days.

The northeast monsoon or amihan, characterized as cold and dry air coming from Mainland China, continues to prevail over Northern Luzon. The tail end of a cold front will also prevail over Central and Southern Luzon. This weather system occurs when the cold air dominates the warm air mass during convergence.

Meanwhile, the trough or the extended cloudiness of a low pressure area (LPA) will affect Mindanao. PAGASA Weather Forecaster Jun Galang said that as the LPA moves in a westward direction, there is a slim chance for it to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).Continuous monitoring will be done since the clouds of the said LPA are already disorganized.

This Wednesday, rainfall will be concentrated over Metro Manila, Rizal, Aurora, Quezon, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas and Mindanao. These areas will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms. The regions of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos will be cloudy with light rains while the rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

Strong winds associated with the surge of amihan will bring rough to very rough sea conditions over the northern seaboard of Northern Luzon, western seaboard of Northern and Central Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Northern and Central Luzon. Sea travel is risky over Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, the northern coast of Cagayan. Ilocos, La Union, Pangasinan, Bataan, Zambales, Isabela, and the eastern coasts of Cagayan and Aurora.

Simbang Gabi Forecast

“Simbang Gabi” or “Misa de Gallo” began yesterday, the 16th of December. Here’s a special weather forecast for those who are going to attend the anticipated mass this evening.

Ruby continues to weaken as it traverses the landmass of Southern Luzon. With maximum sustained winds of 60 kph, Ruby is now downgraded to Tropical Depression, the lowest category of Tropical Cyclones.

PAGASA Weather Forecaster Glaiza Escullar said the weakeaning of Ruby is due to the friction between the landmass and the weather disturbance, and the intrusion of the northeast monsoon or amihan–cold and dry air mass that is not favorable to cyclone intensification.

Tropical Depression Ruby made its fifth landfall over Lubang Island at 5 AM today. Its first landfall was in Dolores, Eastern Samar last Saturday at past 9 PM. Its second landfall was in Cataingan, Masbate last Sunday morning. The third was in Torrijos, Masbate yesterday at 11:05 in the morning. Its fourth landfall was in Laiya, Batangas yesterday at 5:45 PM.

At 4 AM today, Ruby was located at 80 kilometers southwest of Ambulong, Tanuan City in Batangas, moving westward at 13 kph. (FOR REVISIONS PAG MAY LATEST LOCATION)

Escullar confirmed that if Ruby maintains its velocity, it is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Wednesday.

Public Storm Warning Signal

Areas included under Public Storm Warning Signal no. 1 will experience occasional rains with gusty winds.

Meanwhile, Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere have been lifted.

Tuesday rainy weather

Apart from those under Public Storm Warning Signal no. 1, the rest of Central Luzon, Bicol Region and MIMAROPA will have cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and thunderstorms.

Because the amihan is now affecting Northern Luzon. cold weather and light rains are expected over Cagayan Valley, the Cordillera and Ilocos Regions.

Rainfall Data as Ruby crawl along PH islands.

Here is a list of areas that accumulated the highest rainfall during the passage of Ruby.

Typhoon Haiyan,last year locally named Yolanda, which wreaked havoc in Eastern Visayas last year, remains to be the strongest typhoon, bearing maximum sustained winds of 235 kph. However, Typhoon Ruby now holds the title of being the longest-staying typhoon inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this year.

State Weather Forecaster Meno Mendoza says Ruby beats the 5-day record of Typhoon Henry back in July this year. Today is Ruby’s fifth day in PAR, and is now expected to exit our area of responsibility on Thursday morning instead of the earlier forecasted Tuesday.

The said typhoon further weakens as it continues to cross the archipelago, packing winds of 120 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 150 kph. It is now traversing the Sibuyan Sea at a speed of 10 kph moving in a west northwest direction.

After hitting Dolores, Eastern Samar late Saturday and Masbate yesterday morning, Ruby is expected to make landfall in northern Mindoro tonight, between 6 to 8 in the evening. Residents living in the said province are advised against moderate to heavy rainfall, strong winds and possible storm surge generated by the typhoon.

Public Storm Warning Signals as of this morning:

Areas under Signals Number two and three will experience stormy weather. Occurrence of a storm surge 1 to 2 meters high is possible in the coastal areas.

The remaining areas of Luzon and Visayas not included in the warning signals can expect rainy weather. Mindanao will experience improved weather conditions although thunderstorm formation is still possible in the following hours.

Metro Manila, on the other hand, can expect to feel the effects of the typhoon once it makes landfall in Northern Mindoro tonight. Residents can expect moderate to occasional heavy rains as it is the closest distance the typhoon will be from the metro.

Meanwhile, Malacanang announces the suspension of work in government agencies in the National Capital Region and in Southern Luzon today. Offices whose work involves the delivery of health services and disaster response are exempted.

Typhoon Ruby is expected to make its landfall over Dolores, Eastern Samar tonight between 8-10 PM. Residents in said areas are advised against strong winds, heavy to intense rainfall and storm surges up to 4.5 meters in height.

PAGASA Weather Forecaster Chris Perez says that if Ruby continues to move westward at 10 kph, after crossing Samar Provinces it would traverse the landmass of Ticao Island, Masbate and Romblon within 48 hours.

The Ridge of High Pressure Area influenced the movement of Typhoon Ruby, allowing it to dump more rains over the Visayas areas and portions of Southern Luzon and Northern Mindanao.

As of 1 PM today, Ruby was located at 230 kilometers East of Catarman, Northern Samar with maximum sustained winds of 185 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 220 kph.

Public Storm Warning Signal

Public Storm Warning Signals (PSWS) are being raised as Typhoon Ruby moves in closer to the landmass.

Threat of Storm Surge

Perez explained that coastal areas under Signals no. 3 and 2 are more prone to the possibility of storm surges.

However, the 4.5-meter wave height is not expected in all coastal areas. Perez says the height of storm surge depends on the coastal bathymetry, or as National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) refers to “ocean’s depths that is relative to sea level or the depths and shape of underwater terrains.”

High storm surges are most likely to happen in coastal areas with shallow bathymetry.

Full moon and Storm Surge= STORM TIDE

Tonight, the moon will be on its Full Moon phase when the Moon, Earth and Sun are in near alignment. During this phase, the Moon is at the opposite side of the Earth, its entire illuminated part facing us.

The Full moon has a strong gravitational pull that can affect tidal variations. Because of the Full Moon, Perez says there is a possible occurrence of “storm tide,” which can generate higher waves than storm surges. Storm tide happens with the combined effect of the Full Moon and a storm surge.

As of 3:00 AM today, the typhoon with international name “Hagupit”, has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and was given the local name “Ruby”. At 7:00 AM, the eye of Typhoon Ruby was estimated at 930 kilometers east of Surigao City.

It has maximum sustained winds of 175 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 210 kilometers per hour. Moving west northwest at 25 kilometers per hour, it continues to move closer to the Philippine landmass.

There are no public storm warning signals yet but as the typhoon nears the country, the Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, CARAGA and Davao Region will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers or thunderstorms. Aside from Ruby, the northeast monsoon or amihan prevails over Northern Luzon. This weather system is expected to bring light rains over Cagayan Valley, Aurora and Quezon.

Meanwhile, the Cordillera and Ilocos Regions will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains. Metro Manila and the rest of the country will experience a chance of isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

The seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central and Southern Luzon, Visayas and of Mindanao will have rough to very rough sea conditions. Expected wind force will range from 52 to 63 kilometers per hour with a wave height of 3.4 to 4.5 meters.

Higher chance of landfall
According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier, two scenarios are still being monitored:
1) 75% possibility of Ruby crossing the landmass
2) 25% possibility of Ruby re-curving away from the country.

As a precautionary measure, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) and the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issued a list of areas that are critical due to the threat of Typhoon Ruby.

Class suspension

Listed below are different schools in Visayas that have already announced class suspension as preparation for the approaching typhoon.

At 10:00 AM today, the center of the typhoon Hagupit was estimated at 1,543 kilometers east of Davao City. Packing winds of 140 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 170 kilometers per hour, it maintains its velocity moving west-northwest at 30 kilometers per hour.

If it maintains its speed and direction, it is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow, Thursday, and will be given the local name “Ruby”. Upon entering the PAR, the typhoon will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains over Southern Luzon and Visayas.

In a press briefing held earlier today at the PAGASA Weather and Flood Forecasting Center, two scenarios are still expected to happen. However, most meteorological models show a higher chance of landfall activity.

PAGASA Weather Forecaster Aldczar Aurelio said the first possible outcome is the typhoon making landfall over Eastern Visayas, bringing moderate to occasionally heavy rains. Aside from possible flash floods and landslides, storm surges of up to 3 to 4 meters could also occur.

On the other hand, the second scenario shows that if the high pressure area (HPA) weakens, it will give way for Hagupit to re-curve away from the country, leading to Japan. Everyone is advised to monitor updates regarding the approaching typhoon.

No direct effect yet

Hagupit is still far to directly affect the country. However according to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Glaiza Escullar, the outer cloud band of the typhoon is gradually reaching PAR, bringing cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms over Eastern Visayas.

Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon or amihan continues to prevail over Nothern and Central Luzon. Cagayan Valley will have cloudy skies with light rains while the regions of Cordillera, Ilocos and Central Luzon will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains. Metro Manila and the rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

Gale warning includes the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon. Fishing boats and other small seacraft are prohibited from venturing over the seaboards of Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Isabela and Aurora.

“Hagupit” compared to previous typhoons

Based on the climatological records of PAGASA, Typhoon Camilla (1949), Typhoon Aning (1966) and Typhoon Seniang (2006) have almost the same location where Hagupit would originate as it enters the PAR.

The northeast monsoon or amihan, characterized by cold and dry air coming from Mainland China, will affect extreme Northern Luzon while the easterlies will prevail over the eastern section of Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Easterlies are winds coming from the Pacific Ocean, which bring warm and humid weather.

Partly cloudy skies with isolated light rains are expected over Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and the Ilocos Region. Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, mostly in the eastern section.

Based on the records of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the following areas felt the lowest temperatures this morning:

Compared to yesterday, temperatures today are much lower as the amihan blows over Luzon.

What to expect on the 2nd half of November

PAGASA Weather Forecaster Alvin Pura said the amihan is expected to intensify in the following days, bringing chillier early mornings. Pura added that longer nights are expected as the Winter Solstice approaches the Northern Hemisphere. Winter Solstice marks the longest night of the year, either on December 21 or 22. Longer nights mean shorter exposure to sun rays, contributing to the colder weather during “ber” months.

Another thing to keep in mind is the possible formation of weather disturbances. Pura explained that tropical cyclones during this season have a higher chance of hitting the landmass or making their landfall.

Meanwhile, experts continue to monitor the possible impact of an El Niño Phenomenon in the last quarter of 2014. El Niño is characterized by the unusual warming of the sea surface temperature. According to the latest information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the probability of an El Niño Phenomenon at this time has been lowered to 58% from 65%.

PAGASA clarified that we are still in the neutral condition so if El Niño occurs this year, it will be weak. The next update will be released on December 4, 2014.