At 10:00 AM today, the center of the typhoon Hagupit was estimated at 1,543 kilometers east of Davao City. Packing winds of 140 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 170 kilometers per hour, it maintains its velocity moving west-northwest at 30 kilometers per hour.

If it maintains its speed and direction, it is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow, Thursday, and will be given the local name “Ruby”. Upon entering the PAR, the typhoon will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains over Southern Luzon and Visayas.

In a press briefing held earlier today at the PAGASA Weather and Flood Forecasting Center, two scenarios are still expected to happen. However, most meteorological models show a higher chance of landfall activity.

PAGASA Weather Forecaster Aldczar Aurelio said the first possible outcome is the typhoon making landfall over Eastern Visayas, bringing moderate to occasionally heavy rains. Aside from possible flash floods and landslides, storm surges of up to 3 to 4 meters could also occur.

On the other hand, the second scenario shows that if the high pressure area (HPA) weakens, it will give way for Hagupit to re-curve away from the country, leading to Japan. Everyone is advised to monitor updates regarding the approaching typhoon.

No direct effect yet

Hagupit is still far to directly affect the country. However according to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Glaiza Escullar, the outer cloud band of the typhoon is gradually reaching PAR, bringing cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms over Eastern Visayas.

Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon or amihan continues to prevail over Nothern and Central Luzon. Cagayan Valley will have cloudy skies with light rains while the regions of Cordillera, Ilocos and Central Luzon will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains. Metro Manila and the rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

Gale warning includes the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon. Fishing boats and other small seacraft are prohibited from venturing over the seaboards of Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Isabela and Aurora.

“Hagupit” compared to previous typhoons

Based on the climatological records of PAGASA, Typhoon Camilla (1949), Typhoon Aning (1966) and Typhoon Seniang (2006) have almost the same location where Hagupit would originate as it enters the PAR.

As the low pressure area (LPA) in the west of the country dissipated yesterday, a new LPA is spotted approximately 2,000 kilometers from the eastern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

State weather forecaster Chris Perez says it has a possibility of intensifying into a tropical cyclone within 24 to 48 hours. Forecasting models show the weather disturbance entering PAR by Friday.

Perez adds that there are two likely scenarios that depend on the high pressure area northeast of the Philippines–the first is the LPA entering our area of responsibility and recurving to the northeast, and the second is the cyclone making landfall across Central Philippines.

PAGASA is closely monitoring the said weather disturbance as it is expected to be strong due to its proximity to the country. It could also intensify, gaining strength over the Pacific ocean.

It is noted though, that the location of the current weather disturbance is also where Super Typhoon Yolanda was formed last year. In case it intensifies into a cyclone and enters PAR, it will be named Bagyong Ruby, the first cyclone this month.

According to PAGASA’s climatological records, an average of one to two cyclones enter the PAR during December, with a high probability of landfalling in Visayas and Mindanao.

Meanwhile, Perez said the easterlies will remain the dominant weather system today, bring partly cloudy to cloudy skies. Possible thunderstorms and isolated rain showers are expected, mostly over the eastern section of the country.

Also, a gale warning is issued over the northern seaboards of Northern Luzon. Expect rough to very rough sea conditions and strong to gale force winds due to the surge of the northeast monsoon.

The cloud cluster spotted yesterday morning has developed into a low pressure area (LPA). It has already entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and was estimated at 880 kilometers east of Mindanao this 4:00 AM.

PAGASA Weather Forecaster Glaiza Escullar said the LPA has a slim chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. However, it is expected to move towards Eastern Visayas, traverse the areas of Visayas region until it reaches Palawan. The weather bureau continues to monitor the said weather disturbance.

Meanwhile, the easterlies characterized by warm and humid air coming from the Pacific, will bring partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms mostly over the eastern section.

On the other hand, the northeast monsoon or amihan has slightly weakened. Coastal waters over Northern Luzon will be moderate to rough while the rest of the country will experience slight to moderate seas.

Special Non-working day in Maragusan

Pursuant to Proclamation No. 908, today was declared as a special non working day in Maragusan, Compostella Valley, This is to give the people an opportunity to participate with the activities in line with the Foundation Day Anniversary of the municipality.

Meteorology covers a wide variety of terminology that we often hear, but seldom understand and remember. Check out these weather words and be in the know!

1. CLIMATE

Climate is the general weather pattern in a specific area that involves temperature, humidity, rainfall, air pressure and other meteorological variables over a long period of time. According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), some scientists define climate as the average weather condition based on 30 years of observation.

It is important to study climate as it plays a big role in our lives. Rising global temperatures can cause sea levels to rise or affect precipitation over a specific region, human health and various ecosystems. Climate change is one of our generation’s major concerns.

2. SEASON

Season refers to the time of the year caused by the tilting of the Earth. The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) says it is the division of the year based on the recurring astronomical or climatic phenomenon.

However, the location of an area, whether it is in the northern or southern hemisphere, affects its seasons. Other regions have complete seasons: winter, spring, summer and fall. Philippines, being a tropical country, has two official seasons – wet and dry. The wet season usually starts in June as the southwest monsoon or habagat prevails. Rainfall during this season is concentrated over the western sections of the country.

Meanwhile, dry season normally starts in March when warm and humid weather is experienced. Though the scorching heat is felt over all the country, PAGASA clarifies that the term “summer” is not applicable to the Philippines. Meteorologically, we only have the wet and dry seasons.

3. ITCZ

The convergence of winds coming from the northern and southern hemispheres results to group of convective clouds known as the ITCZ or Intertropical Convergence Zone. This weather system affects the country depending on the orientation of the sun or the season. Once it becomes active, it can be a breeding ground of weather disturbances or low pressure areas.

Aside from tropical cyclones, ITCZ is one of the weather systems that cause flooding and landslides because it triggers moderate to heavy precipitation over the affected areas.

4. PAR

PAR means Philippine Area of Responsibility, an area in the Northwest Pacific, where PAGASA monitors tropical cyclones that are expected to affect the country. Once a tropical cyclone enters PAR, it is automatically given a local name so Filipinos can easily remember it.

With a measurement of more than 4 million square kilometres, PAR covers the West Philippine Sea, Bashi Channel over the north, part of the Pacific Ocean in the east and Sulu and Celebes Seas in the south.

One must remember that the Philippine Area of Responsibility is different from the country itself. When we say a tropical cyclone is entering the PAR, it doesn’t mean that it will hit the Philippine landmass. It may still change its course or re-curve away from the country.

5. HABAGAT

Filipinos often hear the southwest monsoon or habagat during the rainy season. Characterized by warm and moist air, it speeds up cloud formation, which dumps rains mostly over the western section of the country.

Once a habagat is enhanced by a tropical cyclone entering PAR, it can bring heavy downpour that may cause widespread flooding.
During the passage of “Ondoy” last 2009 and “Maring” in 2013, habagat brought enormous amounts to Luzon, which led to serious flooding.

6. AMIHAN

After habagat comes the northeast monsoon or amihan, a wind system characterized by cold and dry air coming from Mainland China. It normally starts to prevail during mid-October just like this year, when its onset was officially declared by PAGASA on October 16, 2014.

Amihan is responsible for colder mornings and lower temperatures during the “ber” months. It also affects sea conditions and may direct tropical cyclones towards the Philippine landmass with a higher chance of landfall.

7. THUNDERSTORM

PAGASA issues thunderstorm warnings everyday mostly in the afternoon or evening. A thunderstorm is a weather disturbance that produces rains, gusty winds, lightning and thunder.

Thunderstorm formation occurs through water cycle, wherein heat serves as the main component. As the sun heats up the land or a body of water, warm air rises, producing clouds by means of condensation. Once the cloud becomes massive, precipitation follows in the form of rain, drizzle or hail.

Along with gusty winds and moderate to heavy rains, thunder and lightning also occur during a thunderstorm. Lightning is caused by the connection of the positive charges at the top of the cloud and the negative charges formed at the bottom. Due to lightning, thunder is produced by vibration of air particles.

Flooding in low lying areas is expected during thunderstorms.

8. TROPICAL CYCLONE

Tropical cyclone is the general term for a “bagyo,” which starts out from a cloud cluster that develops into a low pressure area (LPA), an area that has an atmospheric pressure lower than its surrounding locations.

A tropical cyclone is classified into three: Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm and Typhoon. Each of these is measured by its maximum wind speeds and not by its amount of rainfall. An average of 19 to 21 tropical cyclones enter PAR each year.

9. LANDFALL

Landfall happens when the surface of a tropical cyclone intersects with a coastline. In this scenario, the landmass or the affected area will experience stormy weather with moderate to heavy rains and gusty winds. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), it is possible for a cyclone’s strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. In some instances, its strongest winds could also remain over the water even if it made its landfall.

Tropical cyclones can have a series of landfalls like what happened to Typhoon Yolanda wherein 6 landfall activities were recorded on the 8th of November 2013.

10. STORM SURGE

Storm surge is the abnormal rise in sea level associated with a tropical storm or typhoon. It is usually measured by deducting the normal high tide from the observed storm tide.

This event is never related to tsunami, which is a sea level rise brought by a strong earthquake. A tsunami is triggered by underwater seismic activities while a storm surge is generated by strong winds from a storm.

Sources: PAGASA-DOST, NOAA, NASA

PAGASA is currently monitoring a new cloud cluster east of Mindanao, outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). State weather forecaster Buddy Javier says it has a possibility of developing into a Low Pressure Area within 48 hours. Easterlies still prevail over the eastern section of Mindanao, bringing possible thunderstorms late in the afternoon or evening.

Meanwhile, the Bicol Region and Samar province will experience light to moderate rain showers due to the tail-end of a cold front affecting Southern Luzon. Metro Manila and the remaining part of the country will experience fair weather .

Good news to our fishermen: no gale warning has been issued today. Sea travel is safe in all seaboards in the following hours.

DECEMBER: WHAT TO EXPECT

As we’re down to the last week of November, here’s a sneak preview of what to expect, weather-wise, this December.

The northeast monsoon or hanging amihan will continue to bring lower temperatures, especially in the northern regions of the country.
With this, the formation of a tail-end of a cold front is generally possible in the eastern section of Luzon as the easterlies prevail over the eastern section of Visayas and Mindanao. When it comes to tropical cyclones, an average of 1 to 2 is expected to enter PAR.

Be informed. Get the latest weather updates on PanahonTV’s social media accounts.

Natural disasters, particularly typhoons, have earned special attention and mention throughout our nation’s history because of the devastation they leave behind, causing immense losses to infrastructure, agriculture and human lives.

This year alone, several typhoons have left their mark on the public consciousness, including Tropical Storm Fung-Wong (local name: Mario), which caused severe flooding in Greater Luzon, including Metro Manila, affecting more than 118 thousand families.

Meanwhile, Typhoon Rammasun (local name:Glenda) crossed Southern Luzon in July with maximum winds of 150 kilometers per hour. It made its landfall in Albay, claiming more than one billion pesos worth of infrastructure and more than six billion pesos worth of agricultural products and facilities.

Luckily in October, when Super Typhoon Vongfong (local name: Ompong), tagged as the strongest typhoon that entered Philippine Area of Responsibility this year, packing maximum sustained winds of 215 kilometers per hour, it kept its distance from the country as it moved outside our boundary. Though Vongfong did not do damage to the Philippines, Japan was not able to evade the rage of the super typhoon. 31 people were injured, 90,000 households in Okinawa had to evacuate, and more than 400 flights were cancelled. It also knocked out power supply in Okinawa.

It seems that the names of the tropical cyclones are as unique as their characteristics and effects on the areas they have gone through. In the Philippines, PAGASA has a ready list of Filipino names for tropical cyclones.

Just as local names are important for easy communication among PAGASA, the media and the public, so are international names since these weather disturbances can affect more than one country. Through constant correspondence with other nations, we can gauge the cyclone’s track and projected effects—an important tool in increasing preparedness on both national and community levels.

How the naming process began

The areas where tropical cyclones are formed are divided into seven basins: North Atlantic Ocean, Northeastern and Northwestern Pacific Ocean (where the Philippines is located), Southwestern and Southeastern Indian Ocean, North Indian Ocean and Southwest Pacific Ocean.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Australian forecaster Clement Wragge introduced the use of proper names in naming cyclones in the late 19th century. When the Australian national government failed to establish the federal weather bureau and appoint Wragge as director, the forecaster took matters in his own hands and started naming cyclones after political figures whom he disliked and described as “causing great distress and wandering aimlessly about the Pacific.”

It took 40 years before the idea inspired George Stewart, a junior meteorologist in the United States to name Pacific tropical storms after his former girlfriends in his 1941 novel “Storm.”

It was in 1945 when the US armed services formally embraced the practice of using women’s names for typhoons in the Western Pacific. Eight years later, the US Weather Bureau finally adopted the use of women’s names for cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin. It was in 1979 when men’s names were used.

Meanwhile, cyclones in the Southwest Indian Ocean started using names during the 1960s, while the North Indian Ocean cyclones were formally named in 2006.

According to the Weather Philippines Foundation, a new list of Asian names was contributed by all member nations of the World Meteorological Organization‘s (WMO) Typhoon Committee in January 1, 2000. These names are allocated to developing tropical storms by the Tokyo Typhoon Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency, and are arranged in alphabetical order of contributing countries. The majority of names includes flowers, animals, birds, trees, food and adjectives.

Currently, the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific Typhoon Committee (ESCAP/WMO), which promotes the order and implementation of procedures required for minimizing the losses caused by typhoons, has 14 members: Cambodia; China; Democratic People’s Republic of Korea; Hong Kong, China; Japan; Lao People’s Democratic Republic; Macao, China; Malaysia; Philippines; Singapore; Thailand; Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and the United States of America.

Regardless of the year, international names are used per column. Below are the lists of names for developing tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin within a six-year time frame.

Retiring of Names

Tropical cyclone names are retired if they have caused significant damage and casualties in an area. A new list of names is discussed during the annual meeting of the WMO’s regional committee.

Sources: Weather Philippines Foundation | PAGASA | JMA | ESCAP/WMO | NOAA | NASA | Official Gazette of the Philippines | Japan NHK

It came and went like scenes in a post-apocalyptic movie.

Damaged infrastructures. Destroyed homes. Roads and bridges impassable. Barangays inundated with water. No food to eat. No water to drink. No electricity to light the way in search of the missing ones. No medicine to counter the sickness setting in. No way of communicating to call for rescue. It was chaos all around and looting became the answer to the survivors left in its wake.

A year has gone since the world has born witness to the devastation typhoon Haiyan had wrought as it laid untold number of lives in the Philippines. Locally known as bagyong Yolanda, it was the 23rd tropical cyclone to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) dating November 6-9, 2013

Government recorded casualties reaching up to more than 6,000 identified dead and a thousand more missing even as a year has passed as Haiyan plowed through the islands in central Visayas, affecting 44 provinces out of the country’s 81.

With record breaking winds, this has been cited as one of the deadliest and most historic cyclones in history, directly hitting Tacloban City with its full intensity, bringing enormous devastation to lands and lives in the country.

TYPHOON VS HURRICANE

Before you get yourself confused, let’s set things straight by defining the terms ‘typhoon’, ‘hurricane’, and ‘cyclone’.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), these words are all the same weather phenomenon, just different names used depending on where they occur:

This weather disturbance is associated with heavy rains, strong winds, possible flooding and landslides as well as storm surges along coastal areas.

IN WORLD HISTORY

Countless articles online have consistently detailed the destruction Haiyan left, describing it one of the strongest cyclones in world history.

According to Jeff Masters, Director of Meteorology at Weather Underground, Haiyan may be the strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall, however, in terms of wind speed, it unofficially ranks as the fourth strongest tropical cyclone recorded.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimates Haiyan’s maximum sustained winds at 315 kph and gustiness of up to 378 kph – an equivalent of a category 5 hurricane.

Experts say it is very rare for a tropical cyclone to cross over a landmass at its peak intensity. Haiyan did just that, making it the most powerful typhoon to hit land in history.

A storm surge is defined as an abnormal rise of sea water brought about by a severe storm or a typhoon with strong winds. In an archipelagic country like the Philippines, majority of the population live on coastal areas making them prone to storm surges which has the ability engulf low lying communities and bring massive destruction to lands and lives.

Much of the city and nearby settlements are low lying, sitting less than 16 feet above sea level that when Yolanda passes, it generated a storm surge in its wake, washing away barangays and leaving towns in shambles.

Infrastructures near the coast line were leveled by the storm surge. Homes were completely destroyed. Neighborhoods inundated with water. That when Haiyan left, and the surge has passed, it resulted to a grim scene of dead bodies in the water, in the streets forever caught on tape, in photos and in our memories.

A TIMELINE: FROM MICRONESIA TO CHINA

Going down history as one of the most catastrophic typhoons in the world, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) records show Haiyan had a lifetime of 174 hours or roughly 7.250 days.

[insert typhoon Haiyan track from Micronesia to China]

NOV 2 – JTWC begins to monitor a low pressure area (LPA) east of one of the states in Micronesia.

NOV 3 – JMA classifies the low into a tropical depression.

NOV4 – the name ‘Haiyan’ was assigned as it further intensified into tropical storm category.

NOV 5 – Haiyan, achieving typhoon status, forms an eye.

NOV 6 – JTWC estimates Haiyan into super typhoon status or equivalent to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
– It passed over the island of Kayangel in Palau.
– PAGASA gives local name of ‘Yolanda’ as it approaches the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)

NOV 7 – Yolanda enters PAR, prompting PAGASA to issue public storm warning signal #4 in the country on the path of the typhoon.

NOV 8 – Yolanda makes landfall, battering provinces in central Visayas
(Insert infogfx of landfall points)

NOV 9 – Yolanda exits PAR through the West Philippine Sea heading towards Vietnam and southern China.
– Haiyan gradually weakens as cool air joins the circulation.

NOV 10. – Crossing over the Gulf of Tonkin, Haiyan further weakens due to interaction with Hainan Island and Vietnam.
– Haiyan made landfall in Haiphong as a severe tropical storm.

NOV 11. – Haiyan dissipates as it moved Guangxi province in China.

THE WORLD UNITES

The world has monitored – on TV, on the radio, on the internet – as Haiyan lived its course from Micronesia to China. Though we had been warned of its possible impact, it had not been enough to minimize the damages it might have wrought.

It had been a difficult situation to start the rescue and relief operations towards those in the path of the typhoon especially in the remote communities isolated by debris and circumstances.

Appealing to the international community for assistance, the Philippines receive an influx of foreign assistance and aid coming from different countries, organizations and people of goodwill around the world reaching out to the Filipinos.

Typhoon Vongfong, locally named Ompong, has been classified under Category 5: Super Typhoon status by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

Since Typhoon Haiyan, locally known as Yolanda, Ompong is the strongest tropical cyclone to approach Asia.

In comparison, Typhoon Yolanda, which remains the strongest tropical cyclone that recently battered the country in recent history (2013), reached maximum sustained winds of 235 kilometers per hour while Ompong’s peak is at 215 kilometers per hour.

In the Philippines, no Public Storm Warning Signal has been raised as the typhoon has no direct effect on the country, aside from enhancing the Northeasterly wind flow, bringing rough to very rough sea conditions in the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon and Visayas.

Even while maintaining its impressive maximum sustained winds for days and going nowhere near the Philippine landmass after spending hours over the sea, Ompong is not intensifying because according to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Aldczar Aurelio, cold and dry air from the higher latitudes are beginning to join in the cyclone’s circulation. Dry air is not conducive to cyclones as weather disturbances feed off warm and moist air to intensify.

Furthermore, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) states that tropical cyclones are strongest when in the tropics. As they move towards the subtropical region and the temperate zone, they start to gradually weaken.

Why Ompong is slow-moving

Aurelio says there are two High Pressure Areas (HPAs) on each side of the typhoon, its ridge hampering its northward movement. When the extension of the anti-cyclone recedes, Ompong will continue its sail towards Japan.

At 13 kilometers per hour moving northward, Bagyong ‘Ompong’ is expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Saturday.

Possible Scenarios

Currently, over open water, Ompong fails to have a major impact on the Philippines.

Over Taiwan, its southern portions, which are included in the Philippine Area of Responsibility, might experience strong winds and cloudy skies with light to moderate rains, Aurelio says.

However, Japan is another matter. While recovering from the recent cyclone Phanphone that slammed rains on Central Japan, Super Typhoon Vongfong threatens to make landfall in Japan in the following days.

According to JTWC, based on the current forecast track of Vongfong, the typhoon is moving near or over mainland Japan, which include Tokyo and other major cities. However, the typhoon may weaken considerably as it moves closer and begins to affect the country this weekend until early next week.

The strong winds of Vongfong might also batter Ryukyu Island, including Okinawa this weekend. Come Monday, effects will reach Kyushu, Shikoku and later in Honshu, including Tokyo and Osaka.

Typhoon Ompong is the 15th tropical cyclone this year, and the second this October.

The name Vongfong was contributed by Macau, China, which means wasp or putakti in Tagalog.

It has been used three times in tropical storm category in 2002 and 2008, and in typhoon category this year.

Sources: JMA, JTWC, PAGASA

Aside from being only two months away from the Christmas season, October also heralds a few weather changes that will have you reaching for the blanket early in the morning. Read on and find out what you can expect on the tenth month of the year.

1. Colder mornings ahead
After the Autumnal Equinox last September 23, longer nights will continue this October. This month will also be the transition period for wind systems as the wind pattern changes from southwest to northeast. The northeast monsoon or amihan starts to affect the country usually by mid to late October. It is cold and dry in nature, resulting to a temperature drop and a slight chill mostly in the early morning.

2. Rains over the eastern section
Who could forget the southwest monsoon or habagat, which brought enormous amounts of rain in the past few months? Because of this, the western section of Luzon, including Metro Manila, experienced widespread flooding and gusty winds that caused damage to properties. This October, however, residents of the country’s eastern section, which include Cagayan Valley, Aurora and Quezon Province, is more likely to be affected by rains brought by amihan.

3. Possible landfall of tropical cyclones
According to PAGASA, about two to three tropical cyclones or bagyo may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility during the month of October. Tropical cyclones usually move northwest, which means a higher chance of hitting the landmass, making Northern and Central Luzon areas prone to possible landfall activities. The direction or track of the tropical cyclones depends on the surge of the Northeast Monsoon or amihan.

However, changes may still occur as PAGASA continues to monitor the probability of a “weak El Niño” in the last quarter of 2014.