Typhoon Ruby has maintained its strength while nearing the landmass of Eastern Samar. At 10 AM today, Ruby was located at 435 kilometers east of Borongan, Eastern Samar, packing winds of 215 kph near its center and gustiness of about 250 kph.
Within 24 hours, Ruby is expected to be at 120 kilometers east-northeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar. PAGASA weather forecaster Chris Perez said Ruby is forecast to make landfall between the Northern and Eastern Samar tomorrow evening.
Categorized as a Super Typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), storm surges of up to 5 meters over the eastern portion of Samar, Bicol and Surigao are expected.
Heavy to intense rainfall (7.2 to 20mm) is also expected within the 700-kilometer diameter of Ruby. Though Metro Manila will not be hit directly by the eye of the typhoon, its cloud bands will bring heavy to intense rains with gusty winds. The weather bureau added that there is a possibility of raising a Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) once it affects Metro Manila.
Chris said from the press briefing held at PAGASA Weather and Flood Forecasting Center, Ruby may maintain its 250 kilometer radius while crossing the landmass of the Philippines. This means, Ruby will dumped rains over areas within the said radius.
Yolanda Vs. Ruby
Chris explained, in comparison to Super Typhoon Yolanda with 30 plus kph, Ruby is moving in a slower pace with 13 kph. With this scenario, rains will be more concentrated over a certain area that may results to flooding.
Weather Today
Today, aside from Ruby, the northeast monsoon will also bring light rains in Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and the Ilocos Region.
Meanwhile stormy weather is expected in the next 24 hours over Eastern Visayas, the CARAGA Region, Sorsogon, Masbate, and Northern Cebu, including Cebu City and the islands of Bantayan, Camotes and Ticao.
The rest of Visayas and the Bicol Region, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin and Romblon will experience rains with gusty winds. Metro Manila and the rest of the country will experience light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms for the next hours.
Public Storm Warning Signal
Storm warning signals are now being raised by PAGASAto warn people living in areas likely to be affected by Ruby.
Signal no. 2: Winds of 61-100 kph are expected in at least 24 hours. Few large trees may be uprooted and a large number of nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed.
Signal no. 1: Winds of 30-60 kph are expected in at least 36 hours. Banana plants may tilt or land flat on the ground, rice in flowering stage may suffer significant damage and sea travel of small seacraft and fishing boats is risky.
As of 3:00 AM today, the typhoon with international name “Hagupit”, has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and was given the local name “Ruby”. At 7:00 AM, the eye of Typhoon Ruby was estimated at 930 kilometers east of Surigao City.
It has maximum sustained winds of 175 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 210 kilometers per hour. Moving west northwest at 25 kilometers per hour, it continues to move closer to the Philippine landmass.
There are no public storm warning signals yet but as the typhoon nears the country, the Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, CARAGA and Davao Region will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers or thunderstorms. Aside from Ruby, the northeast monsoon or amihan prevails over Northern Luzon. This weather system is expected to bring light rains over Cagayan Valley, Aurora and Quezon.
Meanwhile, the Cordillera and Ilocos Regions will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains. Metro Manila and the rest of the country will experience a chance of isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
The seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central and Southern Luzon, Visayas and of Mindanao will have rough to very rough sea conditions. Expected wind force will range from 52 to 63 kilometers per hour with a wave height of 3.4 to 4.5 meters.
Higher chance of landfall
According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier, two scenarios are still being monitored:
1) 75% possibility of Ruby crossing the landmass
2) 25% possibility of Ruby re-curving away from the country.
As a precautionary measure, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) and the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issued a list of areas that are critical due to the threat of Typhoon Ruby.
Class suspension
Listed below are different schools in Visayas that have already announced class suspension as preparation for the approaching typhoon.
As the low pressure area (LPA) in the west of the country dissipated yesterday, a new LPA is spotted approximately 2,000 kilometers from the eastern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
State weather forecaster Chris Perez says it has a possibility of intensifying into a tropical cyclone within 24 to 48 hours. Forecasting models show the weather disturbance entering PAR by Friday.
Perez adds that there are two likely scenarios that depend on the high pressure area northeast of the Philippines–the first is the LPA entering our area of responsibility and recurving to the northeast, and the second is the cyclone making landfall across Central Philippines.
PAGASA is closely monitoring the said weather disturbance as it is expected to be strong due to its proximity to the country. It could also intensify, gaining strength over the Pacific ocean.
It is noted though, that the location of the current weather disturbance is also where Super Typhoon Yolanda was formed last year. In case it intensifies into a cyclone and enters PAR, it will be named Bagyong Ruby, the first cyclone this month.
According to PAGASA’s climatological records, an average of one to two cyclones enter the PAR during December, with a high probability of landfalling in Visayas and Mindanao.
Meanwhile, Perez said the easterlies will remain the dominant weather system today, bring partly cloudy to cloudy skies. Possible thunderstorms and isolated rain showers are expected, mostly over the eastern section of the country.
Also, a gale warning is issued over the northern seaboards of Northern Luzon. Expect rough to very rough sea conditions and strong to gale force winds due to the surge of the northeast monsoon.
The cloud cluster spotted yesterday morning has developed into a low pressure area (LPA). It has already entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and was estimated at 880 kilometers east of Mindanao this 4:00 AM.
PAGASA Weather Forecaster Glaiza Escullar said the LPA has a slim chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. However, it is expected to move towards Eastern Visayas, traverse the areas of Visayas region until it reaches Palawan. The weather bureau continues to monitor the said weather disturbance.
Meanwhile, the easterlies characterized by warm and humid air coming from the Pacific, will bring partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms mostly over the eastern section.
On the other hand, the northeast monsoon or amihan has slightly weakened. Coastal waters over Northern Luzon will be moderate to rough while the rest of the country will experience slight to moderate seas.
Special Non-working day in Maragusan
Pursuant to Proclamation No. 908, today was declared as a special non working day in Maragusan, Compostella Valley, This is to give the people an opportunity to participate with the activities in line with the Foundation Day Anniversary of the municipality.
Meteorology covers a wide variety of terminology that we often hear, but seldom understand and remember. Check out these weather words and be in the know!
1. CLIMATE
Climate is the general weather pattern in a specific area that involves temperature, humidity, rainfall, air pressure and other meteorological variables over a long period of time. According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), some scientists define climate as the average weather condition based on 30 years of observation.
It is important to study climate as it plays a big role in our lives. Rising global temperatures can cause sea levels to rise or affect precipitation over a specific region, human health and various ecosystems. Climate change is one of our generation’s major concerns.
2. SEASON
Season refers to the time of the year caused by the tilting of the Earth. The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) says it is the division of the year based on the recurring astronomical or climatic phenomenon.
However, the location of an area, whether it is in the northern or southern hemisphere, affects its seasons. Other regions have complete seasons: winter, spring, summer and fall. Philippines, being a tropical country, has two official seasons – wet and dry. The wet season usually starts in June as the southwest monsoon or habagat prevails. Rainfall during this season is concentrated over the western sections of the country.
Meanwhile, dry season normally starts in March when warm and humid weather is experienced. Though the scorching heat is felt over all the country, PAGASA clarifies that the term “summer” is not applicable to the Philippines. Meteorologically, we only have the wet and dry seasons.
3. ITCZ
The convergence of winds coming from the northern and southern hemispheres results to group of convective clouds known as the ITCZ or Intertropical Convergence Zone. This weather system affects the country depending on the orientation of the sun or the season. Once it becomes active, it can be a breeding ground of weather disturbances or low pressure areas.
Aside from tropical cyclones, ITCZ is one of the weather systems that cause flooding and landslides because it triggers moderate to heavy precipitation over the affected areas.
4. PAR
PAR means Philippine Area of Responsibility, an area in the Northwest Pacific, where PAGASA monitors tropical cyclones that are expected to affect the country. Once a tropical cyclone enters PAR, it is automatically given a local name so Filipinos can easily remember it.
With a measurement of more than 4 million square kilometres, PAR covers the West Philippine Sea, Bashi Channel over the north, part of the Pacific Ocean in the east and Sulu and Celebes Seas in the south.
One must remember that the Philippine Area of Responsibility is different from the country itself. When we say a tropical cyclone is entering the PAR, it doesn’t mean that it will hit the Philippine landmass. It may still change its course or re-curve away from the country.
5. HABAGAT
Filipinos often hear the southwest monsoon or habagat during the rainy season. Characterized by warm and moist air, it speeds up cloud formation, which dumps rains mostly over the western section of the country.
Once a habagat is enhanced by a tropical cyclone entering PAR, it can bring heavy downpour that may cause widespread flooding.
During the passage of “Ondoy” last 2009 and “Maring” in 2013, habagat brought enormous amounts to Luzon, which led to serious flooding.
6. AMIHAN
After habagat comes the northeast monsoon or amihan, a wind system characterized by cold and dry air coming from Mainland China. It normally starts to prevail during mid-October just like this year, when its onset was officially declared by PAGASA on October 16, 2014.
Amihan is responsible for colder mornings and lower temperatures during the “ber” months. It also affects sea conditions and may direct tropical cyclones towards the Philippine landmass with a higher chance of landfall.
7. THUNDERSTORM
PAGASA issues thunderstorm warnings everyday mostly in the afternoon or evening. A thunderstorm is a weather disturbance that produces rains, gusty winds, lightning and thunder.
Thunderstorm formation occurs through water cycle, wherein heat serves as the main component. As the sun heats up the land or a body of water, warm air rises, producing clouds by means of condensation. Once the cloud becomes massive, precipitation follows in the form of rain, drizzle or hail.
Along with gusty winds and moderate to heavy rains, thunder and lightning also occur during a thunderstorm. Lightning is caused by the connection of the positive charges at the top of the cloud and the negative charges formed at the bottom. Due to lightning, thunder is produced by vibration of air particles.
Flooding in low lying areas is expected during thunderstorms.
8. TROPICAL CYCLONE
Tropical cyclone is the general term for a “bagyo,” which starts out from a cloud cluster that develops into a low pressure area (LPA), an area that has an atmospheric pressure lower than its surrounding locations.
A tropical cyclone is classified into three: Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm and Typhoon. Each of these is measured by its maximum wind speeds and not by its amount of rainfall. An average of 19 to 21 tropical cyclones enter PAR each year.
9. LANDFALL
Landfall happens when the surface of a tropical cyclone intersects with a coastline. In this scenario, the landmass or the affected area will experience stormy weather with moderate to heavy rains and gusty winds. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), it is possible for a cyclone’s strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. In some instances, its strongest winds could also remain over the water even if it made its landfall.
Tropical cyclones can have a series of landfalls like what happened to Typhoon Yolanda wherein 6 landfall activities were recorded on the 8th of November 2013.
10. STORM SURGE
Storm surge is the abnormal rise in sea level associated with a tropical storm or typhoon. It is usually measured by deducting the normal high tide from the observed storm tide.
This event is never related to tsunami, which is a sea level rise brought by a strong earthquake. A tsunami is triggered by underwater seismic activities while a storm surge is generated by strong winds from a storm.
Sources: PAGASA-DOST, NOAA, NASA