UPDATED AS OF 8:56AM (PST) — Originally 10 kph shy of being a Super Typhoon by PAGASA standards, Chedeng further weakened to tropical depression category this morning.
From the original 215 kph wind strength, it now packs only 55 kph near the center, allowing PAGASA to lower Public Storm Warning Signals (PSWS) except in the provinces of Isabela, Aurora, Quirino and Polillo Island, which are still under PSWS #1 today. These areas will have occasional rains with gusty winds within at least 36 hours.
Aside from being downgraded into a tropical depression, Chedeng also remained stationary. In fact, PAGASA states it is expected to remain almost stationary in the next 6 hours.
State Meteorologist Samuel Duran says as of 8 o’clock this morning, Chedeng has already made landfall in the vicinity of Dinapigue, Isable. With unfavorable conditions, now including land interaction, Chedeng has a high chance of weakening into a Low Pressure Area instead of hitting the land.
The constant factors of its continued weakening and becoming almost stationary include two High Pressure Areas north and west of the country, as well as a strong vertical wind shear. These made the cyclone unable to retain and gain moisture to sustain its strength and continue its projected track.
With this, the threat of storm surge is removed. However, gale warning is up over the northern seaboards of Luzon. and the eastern seaboards of Northern and Southern Luzon as Chedeng will still generate rough to very rough sea conditions. Fisherfolk, especially in small seacraft, are then advised not to venture out due to risky sea travel especially.
EASTER SUNDAY WEATHER
Today, areas under PSWS #1 will experience occasional rains and gusty winds due to Chedeng. The Bicol Region and Samar provinces can expect a rainy Sunday as Metro Manila and the remaining parts of the country may experience a fair weather condition.
Everyone is advised to bring umbrellas for sun protection and possible thunderstorms later in the day. Also, continue monitoring weather updates thru Panahon TV social media accounts.
Despite the cyclone’s weakening, PAGASA reminds the public to brace itself for the possible effects of Typhoon Chedeng this weekend.
At 4 PM today, the eye of the typhoon was estimated at 845 kms. east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora. Packing winds of 140 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 170 kph, Chedeng maintains its typhoon category. However, PAGASA claims it has a higher chance of further weakening as it moves closer to the archipelago. State Meteorologist Aldczar Aurelio says there is a possibility that Chedeng may be downgraded to tropical storm category before hitting the landmass.
One such factor of the typhoon’s weakening is the strong vertical wind shear or the wind strength along the cyclone. Aurelio likened it to a humming top or ‘trumpo’ where winds differ in the bottom and top areas of the cyclone. Chedeng may also weaken due to land interaction, especially in mountainous areas that may help break the cyclone’s wind formation.
In the latest run of the various weather forecasting models of the weather bureau, here’s what we can expect:
April 5 – Sunday
Morning: Chedeng to make landfall over the Aurora-Isabela area.
Evening: Chedeng to leave the landmass via Ilocos Sur.
April 6 – Monday
Morning: Chedeng to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility.
Based on PAGASA’s latest weather bulletin, Public Storm Warning Signal number 1 is raised over Isabela, Aurora, Quezon including Polillo Island, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte and Camarines Sur.
These areas may still be experiencing good weather conditions now, but the effects of Chedeng may be felt in at least 36 hours, or in a day and a half.
PAGASA also mentions the possibility of hoisting the same warning signal over Cagayan, Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya and the Cordillera Administrative Region in the next 12 hours as Chedeng moves closer to Eastern Luzon.
In a press briefing held in PAGASA this afternoon, Aurelio explains that although the country is experiencing good weather today, rains with occasional gusty winds can be expected by late Saturday, escalating to stormy weather, particularly over the Central-Northern Luzon area come Sunday.
In the Greater Metro Manila Area, there is a poor chance of having a storm warning signal raised. However, expect occasional rains and gusty winds as Chedeng crosses the land. The remaining parts of the country, on the other hand, can expect warm and humid weather, Aurelio added.
As Chedeng threatens the country, officials remind the residents living in areas under signal #1 to be prepared against possible flash floods and landslides. Storm surges of up to 2 metes are also possible over the eastern coast of Aurora, Quezon and Isabela. Even fisherfolk over the eastern seaboard of Bicol Region and Visayas are advised against sea travel due to the rough to very rough sea conditions generated by Chedeng.
Surrounded by bodies of water, the Philippines sits astride the typhoon belt. Each year, an average of 19 to 20 tropical cyclones or bagyo enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), with 8 to 9 of these crossing the landmass.
In 2014, 19 tropical cyclones were recorded to have entered PAR. Two of them were experienced before the year ended, making their respective landfalls in the Visayas and Mindanao areas.
Bagyong Ruby
Since its development from a low pressure area on the last day of November, major weather agencies across the globe closely monitored the potentially dangerous typhoon, later given the international name Hagupit.
Filipinos were alerted against the threat of the approaching cyclone as early as December 2, even if Hagupit was still too far to affect the country.
Entering PAR on December 4, the cyclone was locally named Ruby. Two possible scenarios were presented: for it to 1) make landfall and 2) recurve. Despite hoping for the latter, Ruby crossed the archipelago, hitting the land five times before exiting PAR by the evening of December 10.
During its course on land, Ruby left 18 dead and 916 injured. Over 5 billion pesos in damages to agriculture and infrastructure were also reported.
With the catastrophe endured by Filipinos in November 2013 caused by bagyong Yolanda, the Philippines may have learned its lesson. A lot of it, it seems, were applied during the preparations for Ruby.
No less than President Benigno Aquino III ensured that each agency’s preparations were already in place before Ruby’s arrival. This included quizzing his cabinet secretaries on their efforts in preparation for Ruby, to avoid a repeat of the Yolanda situation. A meeting in Camp Aguinaldo was held to mitigate the impact of Ruby in the following days.
Agencies also layman-ized the terms and phrases used in order to make sure everyone understood and acted accordingly. Continuous dissemination of weather bulletins, the initiation of pre-emptive evacuation, and other precautionary measures were undertaken as early as December 2 when the typhoon was still outside the PAR.
BAGYONG SENIANG
Right after Christmas up until New Year’s, PAGASA weather forecasters dutifully monitored the last tropical cyclone of the year— Seniang.
Dumping heavy rains that caused widespread flooding and landslides, among others, Seniang made landfall four times before leaving the PAR on the 2nd of January.
Aside from the 65 deaths, 41 injuries and 7 missing persons, Seniang also caused damages of more than 758 million pesos as of press time.
With the death toll significantly higher compared to Ruby, criticisms were thrown at the government for “falling short in its preparations” for the onslaught of bagyong Seniang. However, Malacañang refuted these claims saying that the government’s preparations and response were comprehensive. Citing the latest report from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, Presidential Communications Operations Office Secretary Sonny Coloma stated that many of the casualties came from isolated cases of landslide and flashflood incidents, in areas that were not “designated as danger zones.”
LESSONS LEARNED
A weather disturbance often takes a few days before it develops into something massive. State meteorologists monitor this through weather satellites, enabling them to alert the public and give them ample time to prepare before a bagyo strikes.
Over the years, the Filipinos have endured the countless devastating effects of cyclones with rising death tolls and damages headlining the news. Though we can’t stop a cyclone from forming, we can minimize its disastrous impact. By focusing on disaster mitigation and preparedness, we help curb the overwhelming consequences of a calamity.
Arm yourself with some weather wisdom.
What is a thunderstorm? A low pressure area? The most dangerous part of a bagyo? (The eye wall, fyi.) Knowing these relevant weather terms help us understand forecasts better, which help us prepare for the coming weather disturbances.
Monitor weather updates.
Nowadays, information comes easily through various platforms—the television, radio, and the Internet. With real-time updates and lead-time forecasts, disaster preparedness is within our reach.
Have an emergency kit.
We can’t stress this enough. Emergency kits save lives. Prepare emergency kits ahead of time and store them in accessible areas so you can easily find them when the need arises.
Make emergency plans with your family.
When disaster strikes, family members may get separated. Make sure the whole family is prepared and informed on crucial information, such as emergency exits, meet-up points, and ways to contact each other. In line with this, it’s also important to know the emergency hotlines in your area.
Identify the threats on your property.
Is your area prone to flooding? Can a storm surge reach your house? Is your area mountainous and prone to landslides? If you are living in a hazard-prone area, evacuate as early as possible. Otherwise, stay inside the house and keep calm.
Store enough food and water.
The movements of tropical cyclones are not definite. Some move speedily; others start fast then slow down later on. Business operations may take time to resume after a disaster so better make sure your supplies will last for a few days.
Heed the advice of local authorities.
If you’re asked to evacuate, do so and be sure to follow instructions. Before leaving, turn off all utilities and secure your home. After the disaster has passed, return home only when officials have deemed it safe.
Are you ready for future disasters? Be informed, prepared, and safe! See below the names that will be used for tropical cyclones that will enter the PAR this 2015
Before departing from the Philippine boundary, Ruby has intensified into Tropical Storm category with maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of about 80 kph. PAGASA weather forecaster Benison Estareja said that this because Ruby is within the vicinity of the West Philippines Sea–it’s increase in intensity due to the moisture it had gathered from the ocean.
Tropical storm Ruby was last located at 505 kilometers west southwest of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro, moving at a speed of 20 kph. If it maintains its velocity, Ruby will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight according to PAGASA weather forecaster Aldczar Aurelio. Because of its distance, it will have no direct effect on any part of the country, confirmed Estareja.
Cold Weather awaits
The northeast monsoon has found its way again to Northern Luzon. Cold weather with lights rains will be experienced mostly in Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos Region.
Baguio City’s temperature will range from 15 to 23 degrees Celsius.
Meanwhile, with the intrusion of winds from the east, fair weather is expected over Metro Manila and the rest of the country. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers are possible in the afternoon or evening.
Top 3 places with highest amount of rainfall
During the passage of Ruby, areas in Southern Luzon has recorded the highest amount of rainfall.
Ruby continues to weaken as it traverses the landmass of Southern Luzon. With maximum sustained winds of 60 kph, Ruby is now downgraded to Tropical Depression, the lowest category of Tropical Cyclones.
PAGASA Weather Forecaster Glaiza Escullar said the weakeaning of Ruby is due to the friction between the landmass and the weather disturbance, and the intrusion of the northeast monsoon or amihan–cold and dry air mass that is not favorable to cyclone intensification.
Tropical Depression Ruby made its fifth landfall over Lubang Island at 5 AM today. Its first landfall was in Dolores, Eastern Samar last Saturday at past 9 PM. Its second landfall was in Cataingan, Masbate last Sunday morning. The third was in Torrijos, Masbate yesterday at 11:05 in the morning. Its fourth landfall was in Laiya, Batangas yesterday at 5:45 PM.
At 4 AM today, Ruby was located at 80 kilometers southwest of Ambulong, Tanuan City in Batangas, moving westward at 13 kph. (FOR REVISIONS PAG MAY LATEST LOCATION)
Escullar confirmed that if Ruby maintains its velocity, it is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Wednesday.
Public Storm Warning Signal
Areas included under Public Storm Warning Signal no. 1 will experience occasional rains with gusty winds.
Meanwhile, Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere have been lifted.
Tuesday rainy weather
Apart from those under Public Storm Warning Signal no. 1, the rest of Central Luzon, Bicol Region and MIMAROPA will have cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and thunderstorms.
Because the amihan is now affecting Northern Luzon. cold weather and light rains are expected over Cagayan Valley, the Cordillera and Ilocos Regions.
Rainfall Data as Ruby crawl along PH islands.
Here is a list of areas that accumulated the highest rainfall during the passage of Ruby.
Typhoon Haiyan,last year locally named Yolanda, which wreaked havoc in Eastern Visayas last year, remains to be the strongest typhoon, bearing maximum sustained winds of 235 kph. However, Typhoon Ruby now holds the title of being the longest-staying typhoon inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this year.
State Weather Forecaster Meno Mendoza says Ruby beats the 5-day record of Typhoon Henry back in July this year. Today is Ruby’s fifth day in PAR, and is now expected to exit our area of responsibility on Thursday morning instead of the earlier forecasted Tuesday.
The said typhoon further weakens as it continues to cross the archipelago, packing winds of 120 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 150 kph. It is now traversing the Sibuyan Sea at a speed of 10 kph moving in a west northwest direction.
After hitting Dolores, Eastern Samar late Saturday and Masbate yesterday morning, Ruby is expected to make landfall in northern Mindoro tonight, between 6 to 8 in the evening. Residents living in the said province are advised against moderate to heavy rainfall, strong winds and possible storm surge generated by the typhoon.
Public Storm Warning Signals as of this morning:
Areas under Signals Number two and three will experience stormy weather. Occurrence of a storm surge 1 to 2 meters high is possible in the coastal areas.
The remaining areas of Luzon and Visayas not included in the warning signals can expect rainy weather. Mindanao will experience improved weather conditions although thunderstorm formation is still possible in the following hours.
Metro Manila, on the other hand, can expect to feel the effects of the typhoon once it makes landfall in Northern Mindoro tonight. Residents can expect moderate to occasional heavy rains as it is the closest distance the typhoon will be from the metro.
Meanwhile, Malacanang announces the suspension of work in government agencies in the National Capital Region and in Southern Luzon today. Offices whose work involves the delivery of health services and disaster response are exempted.
Typhoon Ruby weakens after making landfall at Dolores, Eastern Samar at 9:15 PM Saturday. It is expected to bring strong winds and heavy to torrential rainfall with a possible 3-meter storm surge over the vicinity of Masbate this morning.
PAGASA weather forecaster Glaiza Escullar says in an interview this morning at Panahon TV, the typhoon is expected to be in Romblon tonight, moving towards Mindoro province by tomorrow.
Currently northwest of Catbalogan City in the province of Samar, Ruby packs winds of 160 kph with gustiness of up to 195 kph. The typhoon continues to move west northwest at 15 kph.
The typhoon weakens as it gets less moisture to sustain its strength inland,Escullar explains.
If it maintains current speed and direction, Ruby is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Wednesday morning.
In PAGASA’s latest weather bulletin, Public Storm Warning Signals are raised over the following areas:
Residents living along coastlines are advised on possible storm surges, which may reach up to 2 to 3 meters in areas under storm warning signals #2 and #3.
Typhoon Ruby and the northeast monsoon will also bring rough to very rough sea conditions over the seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and the northern seaboards of Mindanao.
Sea travel is dangerous due to big waves that may reach up to 5 meters, and strong to gale force winds generated by the mentioned weather systems.
In the following hours, stormy weather will be experienced over the provinces under storm signals 2 and 3, particularly in Visayas, Bicol Region, Calabarzon and the provinces of Romblon, Mindoro and Marinduque.
Typhoon Ruby is expected to make its landfall over Dolores, Eastern Samar tonight between 8-10 PM. Residents in said areas are advised against strong winds, heavy to intense rainfall and storm surges up to 4.5 meters in height.
PAGASA Weather Forecaster Chris Perez says that if Ruby continues to move westward at 10 kph, after crossing Samar Provinces it would traverse the landmass of Ticao Island, Masbate and Romblon within 48 hours.
The Ridge of High Pressure Area influenced the movement of Typhoon Ruby, allowing it to dump more rains over the Visayas areas and portions of Southern Luzon and Northern Mindanao.
As of 1 PM today, Ruby was located at 230 kilometers East of Catarman, Northern Samar with maximum sustained winds of 185 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 220 kph.
Public Storm Warning Signal
Public Storm Warning Signals (PSWS) are being raised as Typhoon Ruby moves in closer to the landmass.
Threat of Storm Surge
Perez explained that coastal areas under Signals no. 3 and 2 are more prone to the possibility of storm surges.
However, the 4.5-meter wave height is not expected in all coastal areas. Perez says the height of storm surge depends on the coastal bathymetry, or as National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) refers to “ocean’s depths that is relative to sea level or the depths and shape of underwater terrains.”
High storm surges are most likely to happen in coastal areas with shallow bathymetry.
Full moon and Storm Surge= STORM TIDE
Tonight, the moon will be on its Full Moon phase when the Moon, Earth and Sun are in near alignment. During this phase, the Moon is at the opposite side of the Earth, its entire illuminated part facing us.
The Full moon has a strong gravitational pull that can affect tidal variations. Because of the Full Moon, Perez says there is a possible occurrence of “storm tide,” which can generate higher waves than storm surges. Storm tide happens with the combined effect of the Full Moon and a storm surge.
At 10:00 AM today, the center of the typhoon Hagupit was estimated at 1,543 kilometers east of Davao City. Packing winds of 140 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 170 kilometers per hour, it maintains its velocity moving west-northwest at 30 kilometers per hour.
If it maintains its speed and direction, it is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow, Thursday, and will be given the local name “Ruby”. Upon entering the PAR, the typhoon will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains over Southern Luzon and Visayas.
In a press briefing held earlier today at the PAGASA Weather and Flood Forecasting Center, two scenarios are still expected to happen. However, most meteorological models show a higher chance of landfall activity.
PAGASA Weather Forecaster Aldczar Aurelio said the first possible outcome is the typhoon making landfall over Eastern Visayas, bringing moderate to occasionally heavy rains. Aside from possible flash floods and landslides, storm surges of up to 3 to 4 meters could also occur.
On the other hand, the second scenario shows that if the high pressure area (HPA) weakens, it will give way for Hagupit to re-curve away from the country, leading to Japan. Everyone is advised to monitor updates regarding the approaching typhoon.
No direct effect yet
Hagupit is still far to directly affect the country. However according to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Glaiza Escullar, the outer cloud band of the typhoon is gradually reaching PAR, bringing cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms over Eastern Visayas.
Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon or amihan continues to prevail over Nothern and Central Luzon. Cagayan Valley will have cloudy skies with light rains while the regions of Cordillera, Ilocos and Central Luzon will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains. Metro Manila and the rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
Gale warning includes the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon. Fishing boats and other small seacraft are prohibited from venturing over the seaboards of Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Isabela and Aurora.
“Hagupit” compared to previous typhoons
Based on the climatological records of PAGASA, Typhoon Camilla (1949), Typhoon Aning (1966) and Typhoon Seniang (2006) have almost the same location where Hagupit would originate as it enters the PAR.
